Raiders vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 5 Picks and Prediction for Monday Night Football

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Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP.

Big surprise: The Chiefs are playing in a prime-time game! Yes, we are being sarcastic.

Patrick Mahomes & Co. host the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?

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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs 

Monday, October 10, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium

What You Should Know

Week 5 in the NFL concludes with an AFC West matchup as the Raiders visit the Chiefs. There is one piece of bad news: No Manning Cast this week, which is easily the best way to watch “Monday Night Football.” Hey, Peyton and Eli Manning need occasional weeks off as they are busy guys. 

Kansas City has been the better team than the Raiders for years so no surprise that the Chiefs swept last season – in dominant fashion. The game at Arrowhead Stadium was 48-9, the largest margin of victory in the 126-game history of the series. The previous record was 35 points in 1964.

Patrick Mahomes was 20-for-24 for 258 yards and two scores. The Chiefs also had three rushing TDs. The Raiders totaled 44 yards on 12 carries. Derek Carr was 33-for-45 for 263 yards, a TD, and a pick. 

The home team is 8-3 ATS at the NFL odds in the last 11 meetings. The total has gone Over in the past four. 

Raiders Still Work In Progress 

The Raiders were supposed to be much improved this season with the additions of Coach Josh McDaniels and All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, but they are just 1-3 – albeit off their first win Sunday, 32-23 over Denver. Adams is off to a strong start and had 9 catches for 101 yards.  

Josh Jacobs Surprises on Week 4

However, the clear star in Week 4 was running back Josh Jacobs, a guy Las Vegas was expected to let walk in free agency this offseason after declining his fifth-year rookie option.

Jacobs rushed for a career-high 144 yards along with 2 touchdowns. If you are wondering, Kansas City ranks No. 1 against the run in allowing just 65.8 ypg. 

Maxx Crosby's Form

Maxx Crosby is one of the best defensive ends in the NFL, and he was excellent vs. the Broncos with 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks.

Crosby has totaled 27 tackles and 4 sacks, putting him in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. He’s currently +2500 at BMR’s top-rated books to win it. The last Raider to win that was Khalil Mack in 2016. 

Derek Carr's History Against Chiefs

QB Derek Carr has generally played well in his career vs. Kansas City. He looks for his fifth game in a row in the series with at least 250 yards passing and has at least 2 TD passes and a rating of 95 in three of his past four vs. KC.

Carr has won four of his past five overall on Monday night and has thrown at least 2 TD passes in his past three. 

Hunter Renfrow's Status

Will No. 2 WR Hunter Renfrow play this week? He has missed the past two with a concussion. Renfrow had a career-high 13 catches for 117 yards & a TD in his last game vs. the Chiefs. 

Chiefs Still Own AFC West 

Dominant Week 4 Performance

Remember how the AFC West was supposed to be hugely improved this year and Kansas City’s streak of six straight division titles was in jeopardy? Uh, not so much as the Chiefs are the only team with a winning record among the four. They probably should be 4-0. 

KC looked great last Sunday night in a 41-31 beatdown of the Bucs in Tampa in a rematch of Super Bowl 55. The Chiefs acknowledged wanting to get a measure of revenge for the Super Bowl defeat. 

Tampa Bay had allowed only 27 points in the first three games but gave up 28 in the first half alone. The Chiefs' 41 points marked the most Tampa Bay had surrendered since 2018 and the most it had given up at home since 2016. 

Mahomes Does It Again

Mahomes had one incredible trick throw and finished with 249 yards and 3 TDs. It was Mahomes’ 30th career outing with 3 or more touchdown passes. That's the most such games for any player since 2018.

His 162 passing TDs are the most for any player through their first 67 career games in NFL history, outpacing Dan Marino, who had 160 in that span.

Mahomes is now the fastest player in league history to 20,000 passing yards, breaking the mark previously held by Matthew Stafford (71 games). 

Raiders vs. Chiefs: Pick and Prediction

Since Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback at the beginning of the 2018 season, the team leads the NFL in wins (53), points (2,098), and third-down conversion percentage (49.2%).

Kansas City hadn’t been great running the ball this year but had 187 yards and two scores on the ground vs. Tampa. If this team can run the ball like that consistently, it’s winning the Super Bowl.   

If you wanted to nitpick the Chiefs, their defense has just 4 takeaways. Only four teams have forced fewer turnovers, and all of them have losing records. However, KC has turned each into a touchdown.

Take the Chiefs for your NFL picks.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 - Raiders 23

NFL Pick: Chiefs -7 (-119) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Chiefs -7 (-119)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.