Point/Counterpoint: Panthers vs. Cardinals Free NFL Week 10 Picks (Archive)
It is Round 2 of the confrontation between Doug Upstone and Swinging Johnson here at Bookmakers Review. These long-time handicapping experts have a love/hate relationship and always have no shortage of strong opinions on the NFL picks.
Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 14, 2021 – 04:05 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
2021 Point/Counterpoint Records:
- Swinging Johnson 0-1 ATS
- Doug Upstone 1-0 ATS
Doug Upstone: This past week was upset Sunday in the NFL as underdogs were 9-3 ATS with a jaw-dropping seven outright upsets. One upset that did not occur much to the chagrin of comrade and fellow sports betting analyst Swinging Johnson was Houston upsetting Miami.
This despite the fact the Texans having an upgrade under center with Tyrod Taylor and the Dolphins were downgraded to using Jacoby Brissett. This matchup was like a trip to the Pillsbury factory as these teams combined to make 9 turnovers, which would fit nicely on the company assembly line with cherry filling.
Swinger, we move ahead and while it might seem outrageous to back any team giving -10 points at Bovada or any sportsbook, in looking at the Carolina quarterback conundrum, coach Matt Ruhle looks like he’s aged a decade in nine weeks this season.
That’s what happens when your QB “mainstays” are Sam (I wish I didn’t have to leave USC) and XFL stud P.J. Walker. Since starting 3-0, the Panthers have averaged 17 points a game in putting together a 1-5 SU and ATS record. And for those that have not had a good hearty laugh today, Carolina has not sniffed 200-yards passing in their last five games and is averaging, drum roll, 150.8 YPG passing in this unbelievable stretch (“stench” also works).
If only Christian McCaffrey could stay healthy, maybe the Panthers could go college military and put in the old wishbone offense.
I could go on for hours talking about Carolina SJ, but I’ll take a break and stop laughing to catch my breath, while you chime in.
Swinging Johnson: Yes, I tossed good money at a bad team in backing the Texans. But come to think about it, so did you! Unfortunately for all of those who hitched their wagon to my sinking anchor, your bad team was just a wee bit better than ours.
We narrowly missed covering the number because we were financially assaulted by the aerial misadventures of one Tyrod Taylor. Three picks by the Texans’ passer and a grand total of 73 rushing yards from the Houston backfield against the Miami freakin’ Dolphins!
Okay, I’m not going to ruminate over lost wagers, I am simply going to get back on my pretty white pony and ride to the desert, home of the Arizona Cardinals. Only these Redbirds won’t be soaring on Sunday. Nay, nay, my good man. They are coming off of a big 31-17 win over a divisional foe as a 5.5-point road dog without their starting quarterback under center.
And now the Cardinals are installed as 10-point home favorites over the Carolina Panthers and you and your boy, Joe Q. Public, can’t get enough of the big ol’ chalk the best sportsbooks are just waiting for you to take. Well, Chalky von Chalkowitz, you remind me of the mouse in the house who thinks the cheese is free.
Let me tell you one reason why the Cardinals won’t cover this week. As stated, they enjoyed a big win over a divisional rival in the 49ers and will be looking past the Panthers to a date with another divisional opponent the following week when they meet the Seahawks in Seattle. You see young man; in the sports betting vernacular we call this a “trap game”.
Now before I continue my symposium, I must ask that you give my scantily clad attendant in the corner your credit card so that I may impart unto you more wisdom and sports betting acumen. Her name is Trina and, quite frankly, she scares me.
Doug Upstone: Yes, SJ, it is chalk-laden betting odds but we are seeing a lot of that this year. Here is why desert birds are a good bet.
Arizona has the best record in the NFL at 8-1. That is backed up with having the 3rd-best spread record in the league at 7-2 ATS.
Have to admit, I was impressed with the Cardinals’ gumption after a - hard to swallow – loss to Green Bay (which I attended). The Cards went to San Francisco and Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins didn’t even have their uniform on and they whipped the 49ers 31-17 in a game that wasn’t that close.
Though GM Steve Keim was nearly fired for a DUI a couple of years ago, you have to hand it to him Swinger, this team has more talent than most recognize. The names are hardly household, but Keim has quietly built a defense that is 4th overall at 321 yards allowed. Between their pass rush and underrated secondary, the Redbirds are 6th against the pass at 209 yards a contest.
I will admit the Arizona run defense is not elite, ranked 18th, and now missing oft-injured J.J. Watt, but Carolina is hardly frightening running the rock-listed 17th. If Darnold saw “ghosts” in New Jersey, he’ll be spooked in the desert.
On offense, the Cardinals trail only Tampa Bay when it comes to scoring at 30.8 PPG and I’m having a hard time seeing Carolina reaching 20 and the ‘Cats almost assuredly will set up the Cards offense with turnover(s).
Swinging Johnson: Ah, I love it when you anesthetize me with numbers. Yes, I count backward from 10 and before I know it, I’ve woken up with people I’ve never met, surrounding me in monochromatic jumpers and hairnets. I only wish I knew what they did to me when I was under.
Okay, so let me plead my case and try to convince all of those who might otherwise be smitten by your good looks and prodigious powers of prognostication. The fact of the matter is that not only is this a look-ahead game for the Cardinals but they’re injured to boot!
Even if Kyler Murray returns and brings his binky, DeAndre Hopkins, along for the ride, neither will be at 100 percent. Oh, and that Fabergé egg known as JJ Watt is also on the shelf – surprise, surprise.
And while I’m at it, I too shall summon a stat or two that may cause you to clutch your pearls. Arizona is 5-14 ATS as favorites of 7.5- points or more over the last 19 such occurrences. You want more? Oh, I’ll give you more Senor Chalkowitz.
My Carolina Panthers are 7-1 ATS over their last eight games as a road underdog and are 6-1 ATS over their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. I could go on…but I’ve run out of good stats.
I am dropping the mic and I will pray for anyone who doesn’t ride this live road pup with me all the way to the cashier’s window. You’ve got the last word, my good man. Remember, it’s not too late to come to the light.
Doug Upstone: Mr. Johnson, while I admire your ability to create a good read, I’m into winning my picks through hard work and dedication. When you have a winning ticket, nobody mocks you for taking the big favorite, they just pay you. That works for me!
Swinger, good luck to you on all the rest of your picks this weekend.
Swinger’s Free NFL Pick: Panthers +10 Points (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Doug’s Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -10 Points (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.