Off a shockingly bad home loss in Week 7, it’s not clear who will start at quarterback for the New England Patriots when they visit the New York Jets in AFC East on Sunday (although we have a pick on it). Which way to lean at the best sportsbooks?
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
What You Should Know
Who would have thought that in Week 8 of the 2022 NFL season the New England Patriots would be the only team in the AFC East without a winning record and would be trailing the 2nd-place New York Jets by 2 games? Not me!
Sunday is the 1st of 2 meetings between the rivals as the Patriots will host New York in Week 11. Last season, the Patriots easily swept the season series because the Jets were frankly awful. The game in New Jersey finished by a 25-6 score. Mac Jones was 22-for-30 for 186 yards for the Pats (more on him below) and Damien Harris rushed for 62 yards and a TD.
New England was outgained 336-260 but intercepted Jets QB Zach Wilson 4 times. New York did rush for 152 yards.
The Patriots have won 12 straight games in the series and have covered the NFL betting spread in 4 of the past 5.
Jones or Zappe for the Pats?
Monday night in Week 7 was definitely one of the most surprising results of the season, as the Patriots generally closed as 8.5-point home favorites against a struggling Chicago Bears offense, yet the Bears completely dominated 33-14. New England’s supposedly excellent run defense was gashed for 243 yards on the ground and the Bears were 11-for-18 on third down.
They scored 23 unanswered points after falling behind 14-10. The 33 overall points were the most Chicago has ever scored with Justin Fields as the team’s starting QB. The Bears were averaging 15.5 points a game this year.
All anyone wants to talk about in the Boston area today is which quarterback starts going forward. Mac Jones returned from injury and got the call Monday, but was pulled after going 3-for-6 for 13 yards and an awful pick. 4th-round rookie Bailey Zappe, who had been 2-0 as a starter, wasn’t much better in relief, going 14-for-22 for 185 yards, a TD, 2 picks, and a lost fumble.
Coach Bill Belichick told ESPN sideline reporter Lisa Salters that the plan entering the game was to play both quarterbacks, but it’s hard to believe he only planned to play Jones so little. Belichick insisted that Jones wasn't benched and would have returned to the game in the second half if the score had been closer. The future Hall of Famer wouldn’t reveal his plans for who would start vs. the Jets.
I’d imagine it’s Jones. BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has a prop on the Week 8 starter and Jones is -140 with Zappe at +100.
Pats' Offensive Line Status
Belichick might have to make a change on the offensive line, too. Left tackle Trent Brown was called for 4 penalties: holding twice, a false start, and tripping. Starting right tackle Isaiah Wynn, who was inactive due to a shoulder injury, had entered with 8 penalties on the season.
One key injury from Monday: safety Kyle Dugger limped off the field at Gillette Stadium during the Bears’ first drive of the 2nd half and didn’t return. Dugger missed time earlier in the season due to a knee injury. It is too early to know if he will play vs. New York.
The Patriots are 6-1 ATS on the NFL picks when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Jets Lose Star Rookie
The Jets won their 4th straight game Sunday, 16-9 at Denver (catching a break in that the Broncos were without starting QB Russell Wilson), although he hasn’t been good this year when healthy.
However, it was a very costly win as New York's 2nd-round running back Breece Hall, who had been the betting favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, tore his ACL and is done for the season.
Hall had a 62-yard TD run in the game and had been fantastic since the calendar flipped to October. He is 7th in the NFL with 681 yards from scrimmage. With him on the field this year, the Jets averaged 5.6 yards per rush, which would be the top mark in the league. With Hall off the field, they've averaged only 3.6, which would rank 29th.
Breece Hall's Backup
New York has a decent backup in Michael Carter and the team also traded for Jacksonville’s James Robinson on Monday. Robinson had fallen behind Travis Etienne in the Jags’ rotation.
The Jets also took a hit on the offensive line as right tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker was lost to a season-ending triceps injury. Vera-Tucker had started games at right guard, right tackle, and left tackle for New York this year. He is the second former first-round pick on the offensive line to suffer a season-ending injury.
Right tackle Mekhi Becton went down in training camp with a knee injury. Cedric Ogbuehi replaced Vera-Tucker in Sunday's game and is expected to start at right tackle in Week 8.
Wide receiver Corey Davis (knee), who also left Sunday's game, is considered day-to-day. Fellow wideout Elijah Moore, who was benched Sunday after requesting a trade 3 days earlier, is expected to return to action.
Even though the Jets are 5-2, oddsmakers are still skeptical as following the NFL odds, New York is +140 to make the playoffs and -170 to miss. I’m not completely sold yet, either, and think the Hall loss is devastating. The Patriots rarely play back-to-back poor games. New York is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 vs. the AFC East.
NFL Prop Pick: Mac Jones To Be Week 8 Patriots Starting QB (-140) at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Patriots -1.5 (-112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.