Patriots vs. Cardinals Week 14 MNF Betting Prediction: New England Needs Win in the Desert (Archive)
The Patriots have dropped their last 2 and are struggling to remain in playoff contention but a win over the Cardinals in the desert would give their chances a big boost.
Let’s review the NFL odds on this Monday night showdown and keep cashing our NFL picks!
New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals
Monday, December 12, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
There’s something funky going on in the New England coach’s room and it doesn’t look good. Bill Belichick was never named an official offensive coordinator but a man who made his bones at the game’s highest level on the defensive side of the ball has been entrusted with engineering the offensive game plan. What?!
Yes, Matt Patricia, reviled in Detroit shortly after he took over as head coach only to be summarily dismissed two and a half seasons into his tenure, is that man. He is technically the offensive line coach and senior football advisor. However, the Patriots offensive line has been a mess this season, in part due to injuries, while whatever advice he is dispensing has led to a 6-6 record with middling hopes for a postseason berth.
But the biggest issue for the Patriots has been their sputtering offense. Second-year man, Mac Jones, has not been happy with the play-calling, and only once this season did it appear Patricia finally removed the shackles and let Jones go deep. That resulted in the Patriots' 33-26 loss to the Vikings in Minnesota, but at least Jones was allowed to throw more than flare passes to outlet receivers.
Yet, that experiment was short-lived as the following game the Patriots fell, 24-10, to the Bills in a game where Patricia reverted to an unimaginative game plan, only allowing Jones to pass after the team fell hopelessly behind to the AFC East Division-leading Buffalo Bills.
Now the question is, what’s in store this week when the Pats travel to the desert? Will it be ground-and-pound or will Jones be permitted to air it out?
Murray Holds the Key
The Patriots haven’t been all that successful at containing mobile quarterbacks, which is good news for one of the most elusive in the business, Kyler Murray. And the Cardinals will need every advantage they can get as their playoff hopes are on life support, but there is still a slim chance they could go on a tear and get in through the backdoor.
In Arizona’s latest outing, Kyler Murray would toss 2 touchdown passes and run for another in his team’s 25-24 loss to the Chargers. Murray passed for 191 yards and rushed for 56 while James Conner piled up 120 rushing yards on 20 carries, his first 100-yard rushing game in his two seasons in a Cardinals’ uniform.
It was a solid effort for the Cardinals as they held a seven-point lead until the Chargers scored with 15 seconds remaining and opted for the two-point conversion which proved successful. It should also be noted the Cards were missing 4 of their 5 starting offensive linemen.
"We had our chances," Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "I think both teams played well enough to win. They made the plays at the end, unfortunately, we didn't. Our offense got it back twice — went three-and-out — can't do that against a good team."
Total Trends
- Under is 4-0 in the Patriots’ last 4 games following a bye week.
- Under is 7-1 in the Patriots’ last 8 games in December.
- Under is 9-2 in the Cardinals’ last 11 Monday games.
- Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams.
Patriots vs. Cardinals: Game Prediction
The Patriots do well against the run but that’s against running backs. Where they falter is against quarterbacks who roll out, fake the pass, and turn the edge. And guess who does that better than just about anyone? Yup, Kyler Murray.
It would be logical that Patricia will run Rhamondre Stevenson until his wheels fall off because that’s what he’s done all season. But if he’s smart, he will let Jones throw early and often because the Cardinals rank 24th against the pass.
However, Patricia is not known to be all that flexible so we will likely see plenty of Stevenson and Damien Harris if he is cleared to play. I’m looking at this matchup as a contest of running backs. Rhamondre Stevenson versus James Conner, but the Cardinals have a few other things going for them that the Patriots don’t.
First, they are home. Second, their quarterback has major league wheels, unlike the pocket-passing Mac Jones. Third, Arizona has the only truly elite receiver in the game - DeAndre Hopkins. And last, the Redbirds will be well-rested after coming off of their bye week.
Final Picks
The Patriots own a better defense but it’s not spectacular.
It can be had and now that Murray is likely to welcome the return of some of his offensive line starters this looks like a great spot to take a live home dog.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 23 - Patriots 20
NFL Pick: Cardinals +2 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
NFL Pick: Under 44.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.