Panthers vs. Bengals NFL Week 9 Best Bets: Will Cincinnati Bounce Back Without Ja’Marr Chase?

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Ja'Marr Chase #1 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs with the ball as he is tackled by Cornell Armstrong #22 of the Atlanta Falcons. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP.

The Carolina Panthers (2-6) lost a heartbreaker to Atlanta in overtime. The Cincinnati Bengals (4-4) fell flat on their face without Ja’Marr Chase against the Browns on Monday night. Will the Bengals bounce back at home where Joe Burrow plays much better?

The Bengals are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points at many of the best sportsbooks. We have some NFL picks and predictions for this Week 9 non-conference matchup.

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Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium

Bengals: Home Sweet Home?

Joe Burrow was playing some of his best football against the Saints and Falcons, but after a tipped ball went for an early interception against Cleveland, he seemed out of sorts on Monday night.

While he did not have Ja’Marr Chase (hip injury), Burrow still has one of the better wide receiver duos in the league with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. But the Bengals could not get things going, and Burrow took 5 sacks, his most since Week 2.

Cleveland also has a great read on the Bengals in the division as Burrow is now 0-4 against them with 2 losses by 19-plus points in the last 2 seasons. They have Myles Garrett to get after him in the pocket, and there are some quality defensive backs in Cleveland.

Fortunately, the Bengals are back to being a big home favorite this week. For whatever reason, Burrow is significantly more dominant at home than he is on the road in his career.

  • Home: 327.2 passing yards per game, 8.70 yards per pass, 105.5 passer rating.
  • Road: 244.1 passing yards per game, 7.01 yards per pass, 96.0 passer rating.

Burrow has 9 games with 320-plus passing yards and all but 2 of them have come at home.

Week 9 Matchup

The Panthers really have not played a high-quality passing game this season when you consider that the Rams and Buccaneers do not look impressive in 2022.

Carolina has a below-average pass rush with Brian Burns having 5 of the team’s 12 sacks. The Panthers just allowed the Falcons to throw the ball around a lot (for their standards) in a 37-34 loss.

Trust Joe Burrow

The Bengals have a lot of growing to still do after skipping several steps to reach the Super Bowl last year. We are seeing some of those growing pains now with Chase out of the lineup, but this is still a decent offense without him.

We’ll trust Burrow to get back on track and be prolific in throwing the ball against another NFC South opponent this season.

NFL Pick: Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Joe Burrow Over 260.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Can the Panthers Run On Cincy?

The Panthers followed up their shocking upset win over Tampa Bay with nearly another shocker in Atlanta in one of the best games ever played in that division rivalry. It was a fun, surprisingly high-scoring affair with teams exchanging blows for 4 quarters, and overtime after a brilliant touchdown by D.J. Moore seemed like it would down the Falcons.

But an excessive celebration penalty made the extra point longer, and it was missed. The Panthers also missed a game-winning field goal from 32 yards out in overtime. Not sure if kicker Eddy Pineiro will recover from that devastating of a finish.

But P.J. Walker passed for 317 yards, Moore was heavily involved with 152 yards, and this running game without Christian McCaffrey may be just fine. D'Onta Foreman took over for Chuba Hubbard and rushed for 118 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It is the 2nd game in a row where Foreman rushed for 118 yards, doing his best Nick Chubb impersonation. But can Foreman have a Chubb-like impact against the Bengals? The Cincinnati run defense is below average (21st in yards, 16th in yards per carry), but it has held up at home.

Facing Burrow for the First Time

This comes back to Burrow playing better at home, so the Bengals take early leads and play in more favorable situations. On the road, Burrow struggles more and the other team can tee off on him with the pass rush, and the opposing offense can grind away on the ground.

The Panthers have had the luxury of playing division rivals the last 2 weeks, so they knew a lot about both opponents. The Bengals are an unfamiliar opponent with the Panthers never having faced Burrow or head coach Zac Taylor before.

I would not count on Walker being able to throw for 300 yards in Cincinnati, but it is good to see the Panthers getting Moore involved and this run by Foreman on the ground. It makes the team watchable again as they did not look capable of winning another game after firing Matt Rhule, putting Baker Mayfield on the injured list, and trading McCaffrey to the 49ers.

Panthers vs. Bengals: Game Prediction

By metrics such as DVOA or the Simple Rating System, the Bengals are still a significantly better team than the Panthers this season. While Chase is clearly very important to Burrow and this passing game, he is not irreplaceable, and they still have a solid group of receiving weapons for Burrow to throw to, and we know his home numbers are way better than on the road.

We also know the Browns have it out for the Bengals in the Kevin Stefanski vs. Zac Taylor era.

Let’s trust the Bengals to put Monday night behind them, get ready for a lesser opponent at home, and for Burrow to play a much sharper game against a team that does not have an elite pass rusher to the level of T.J. Watt, Micah Parsons, or Myles Garrett.

Final Picks

Since 2020 when the Bengals drafted Burrow, Cincinnati is 14-6 ATS after a loss, the second-best record in the league. Take the Bengals to cover the NFL odds, and since Chase is out again, the game will be lower scoring and hit the under for your NFL picks.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24 - Panthers 16

NFL Pick: Under 42.5 Points (-110) at Bovada

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Under 42.5 Points (-110)
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NFL Pick: Bengals -7.5 (-105) at Bovada

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Bengals -7.5 (-105) (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.