It’s a matchup between a 4-time NFL MVP and the likely winner of the 2022 award on Sunday night in Week 8 as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers visit Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Which way to lean at the best sportsbooks?
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 08:20 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
What You Should Know
When the NFL schedule was released in May, this was definitely a game circled by many NFL fans as one of the marquee matchups of the season and perhaps a Super Bowl 57 preview. Maybe it will be, but only Buffalo is playing like a Super Bowl-caliber team right now. Green Bay definitely isn’t.
This game will still get massive ratings on Sunday night and probably be one of the most-wagered of the season at the top-rated books simply with the star power of 4-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers against the favorite to win it this year in Buffalo’s Josh Allen.
These teams have alternated wins in the series since 1994 with each club winning 4. Just 4 of the 13 previous ones in the series have been decided by single digits.
Green Bay won the last matchup, 22-0 at home in 2018. Rodgers threw for 298 yards and a TD. Allen was a struggling rookie then and was frankly terrible, completing 16-for-33 for 151 yards and 2 picks. Here’s something that surprised me: Green Bay has never won in Buffalo. Granted, the Packers don’t go there often but still a surprise.
Green Bay Packers Analysis
Aaron Rodgers Frustration
Green Bay of course traded arguably the NFL’s best receiver in Davante Adams this offseason to the Las Vegas Raiders and didn’t replace him other than with rookies. We assumed that Aaron Rodgers wouldn’t be quite as good without Adams around, but wow what a fall he has taken.
The Packers suffered their 3rd straight upset loss on Sunday, 23-21 at Washington, which is not a good team and was starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke. Rodgers did have 2 TD throws, but only 194 yards, and was visibly frustrated with his teammates at times.
The Pack were 0-for-6 on 3rd down and totaled just 232 yards. In addition, Rodgers lost top target Allen Lazard to a shoulder injury, making him the team's 3rd wide receiver to go down during the first losing streak under coach Matt LaFleur.
"Our guys are extremely disappointed," LaFleur said in his postgame press conference. "I don't think anybody thought we'd be in this spot that we're in right now, and we're going to find out what we're made of. I do believe we've got the right kind of guys that will continue to battle.”
It's not clear if Lazard will play this week. Ahead of Week 7, the team placed wideout Randall Cobb on injured reserve, so he’s obviously out. Another wideout, second-round rookie Christian Watson, was inactive due to injury. Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari was also out.
Packers Super Bowl Odds
BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) has moved Green Bay to +3300 to win the Super Bowl, the team’s longest odds since the 2018 season. The site also lists the Pack is -200 to miss the playoffs and +160 to make it. Will Rodgers announce his retirement before Week 1 of the 2023 season? Yes is a -300 favorite (I highly doubt he does) and no is +200.
Green Bay has covered 6 straight games after failing to total 250 yards of offense in its previous game.
Buffalo Bills Analysis
Josh Allen Next MVP?
According to the NFL odds, Buffalo is the +275 favorite to win Super Bowl 57 as the team comes out of its bye week at 5-1 and that lone loss was by 2 points in Miami when the Bills dominated statistically.
Quarterback Josh Allen is the -115 favorite to win NFL MVP. No Buffalo QB has won that and the last Bills player overall to do so was running back Thurman Thomas in 1991.
Allen is 2nd in the league with 17 passing TDs (franchise record through 6 team games) and also has rushed for 2. He is also the only QB in NFL history to have at least 120 passing touchdowns (120) and 30 rushing touchdowns (33) in a quarterback's first five seasons.
His .667 win percentage (44-22) in the regular season is the 2nd-best among Bills' quarterbacks with at least 30 starts. The Bills are 20-1 when Allen has a passer rating of at least 100.
I suppose if you wanted to nitpick, maybe the Bills could use an upgrade at running back. They were mentioned as a possible destination for Carolina Pro Bowl tailback Christian McCaffrey before he was dealt to the San Francisco 49ers last week. Cam Akers, a 2020 2nd-round pick, has asked for a trade from the Los Angeles Rams and could be an option.
Bills Come Off Bye Week
The team should be healthy coming off the bye week. In Week 6, the only key player who missed a win over Kansas City (in terms of new injury) was the offensive tackle, Spencer Brown. Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White has yet to play this season off a torn ACL, but it’s possible he’s activated this week.
The team must activate him by Nov. 2 or he will miss the rest of the season. In White’s absence, 2020 7th-round pick Dane Jackson has started when healthy.
How great has the signing of future Hall of Famer Von Miller been? The 33-year-old has 6 sacks, one off the league lead. Mario Addison led the team in sacks last season with only 7.
Buffalo is 4-1-2 ATS in its last 7 off a bye. And there’s little doubt in my mind the Bills win this game, but giving Aaron Rodgers 10.5 points is just too many.
This is the biggest Rodgers has been an underdog in his NFL career. The previous biggest was +8.5 in Seattle for the NFC title game following the 2014 season (Seahawks won in OT). Rodgers has never won a game straight up as a dog of at least 7 points.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen for NFL MVP (-115) at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Under 47 (-110) at BetOnline
NFL Pick: Packers +10.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.