Packers vs. Bears NFL Week 13 Betting Picks & Prediction: Aaron Rodgers’ Last Stand?

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Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers celebrates with Aaron Jones #33 after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles. Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/AFP

The Green Bay Packers (4-8) are 1-7 in their last eight games, but until further notice, they still own the Chicago Bears (3-9). The two rivals meet again this Sunday, and we are not 100% sure if the quarterbacks will be Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields, Jordan Love and Trevor Siemian, or a mixture of the two groups. Either way, it feels like an advantage for Green Bay.

The NFL odds boards agree. The Packers are a 4-point road favorite with a total of 43.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Chicago is the only team the Packers have been able to beat by more than three points in their last 14 games.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field

Week 2 Recap: Packers 27, Bears 10

Remember when the Packers were still a contender? It was Week 2, and everything seemed just fine after their usual 27-10 home win in prime time against Chicago:

  • The Packers allowed a season-low 10 points and 228 yards to the Bears.
  • It is the only game all season where the Packers had over 400 yards of offense in regulation.
  • The Packers had a season-high 26 first downs.
  • Green Bay running back Aaron Jones was dominant with 170 total yards and two touchdowns.
  • Despite trailing by 17 points for most of the second half, the Bears finished the game with 11 pass attempts as they seemed afraid to throw the ball.
  • Justin Fields threw one interception and took three sacks on 14 pass plays.

Since that night left both teams at 1-1, you almost want to say these teams have gone in opposite directions since. Yet that would not be correct, as the Packers still have a better record going into this Sunday. It just feels different because we are seeing the end of an era in Green Bay and the Bears had some magical stuff going with their ground game and Fields.

But it’s still not winning games for them.

Chicago’s Offense: The Quick Rise and Potential Quick Fall

Early this season, the Bears seemed stumped on how to use second-year quarterback Justin Fields. New head coach Matt Eberflus and first-time offensive coordinator Luke Getsy were calling pass plays at the lowest rate of any NFL team in over 40 years through the first month of the season.

Fields was a wreck in September too, throwing an interception on 8.9% of his passes and taking a sack on 18.2% of his dropbacks. I’d consider not throwing either if my quarterback was doing that.

But after the Bears nearly came back from a 21-3 deficit in Minnesota in Week 5, something seemed to click for this offense. Fields started to run the ball more, both by design and scrambles, and things started opening up for this offense.

It really came together in New England in a surprising 33-14 win when Fields rushed 14 times for 82 yards and a touchdown. The trio of Fields and running backs David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert put together a historic rushing offense:

  • The Bears became the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five straight games.
  • Fields became the first quarterback to rush for 140 yards in back-to-back games.

Unfortunately, the defense was not up to standard, and the team was making more history:

  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three straight games when scoring at least 29 points.
  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose four straight games when rushing for at least 160 yards.
  • The 2022 Bears are the first team since the 1976-77 Bills (11 games) to lose at least five straight games when rushing for at least 125 yards.

As great as Fields’ rushing was, he only passed for more than 190 yards against the Vikings. The passing game was not developing, and late in games against Miami, Detroit, and Atlanta when Fields only needed a field goal, he was unable to do it three times in one-score losses.

The team traded for wide receiver Chase Claypool, but he had 32 yards in three games with Fields. He had 51 yards on Sunday with Trevor Siemian at quarterback against the Jets.

Men Down

Now the injuries are piling up. First, it was Herbert, who really developed as the most efficient back in Chicago this year. He is still out. Then it was Fields' shoulder, because that was almost going to be inevitable if you run your quarterback 12-to-18 times a week. He missed Sunday’s loss in New York.

No. 1 wide receiver Darnell Mooney injured his ankle and will need season-ending surgery. Another weapon gone. Even if Fields returns for this game, he is down his best running back and his best wideout.

And he still is not executing the passing game at the level the team needs to take the next step to start winning games. The Bears have done a good job of becoming watchable again, but it is hard to say the offense they’ve created is sustainable or enabling them to win games.

Our Betting Pick

Let’s assume Rodgers, who turns 39 on Friday, is the starting quarterback this Sunday. He is facing a poor Chicago defense that just gave up over 300 yards and three touchdowns to Mike White and the Jets in the rain. A lot of those yards were after the catch too.

Rodgers has a capable running game, plenty of experience beating the Bears, and Christian Watson has blossomed beautifully at wide receiver with six touchdowns in the last three games. The Packers still have better pieces than the Bears on offense in this game regardless if Fields starts or not.

If Mooney and Herbert were playing and this was one of Chicago’s decent defenses, then maybe this would be the spot to pick the Bears. But for at least one more time, let’s go with Rodgers to own the Bears and get the Packers the cover again for your NFL picks.

If you're a resident of Wisconsin looking to bet on the Green Bay Packers, remember to check out our guide on the best Wisconsin betting sites for more info on how to do so.

NFL Pick: Packers -4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Packers -4 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.