Packers vs. Eagles Week 12 SNF Betting Preview: Which Rodgers Will Show Up?

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The NFL did not flex out its Sunday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers (4-7) and Philadelphia Eagles (9-1) despite the Packers’ struggles.

But there weren’t many better options to replace it with, so we’ll get to see which version of these teams shows up with the Eagles struggling the last two weeks to score and the unpredictable Packers with Aaron Rodgers having the worst season of his career.

The Eagles are a 7-point home favorite with a total of 46.5 points at many of the Pennsylvania betting sites. Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in three straight games. Meanwhile, the Packers are 7-1 ATS as an underdog since 2021, the best record in the league. Does Rodgers have one more upset left in him, or did he use it up against Dallas?

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Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 08:20 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

What’s Wrong With Philadelphia?

The Eagles still have the NFL’s best record at 9-1, but they only rank No. 4 in the team rating systems at Pro Football Reference (SRS) and Football Outsiders (DVOA).

The Bills and Cowboys both have a larger margin of victory than the Eagles this year. Teams like the Chiefs and 49ers are also catching up to Philadelphia when it comes to statistical dominance.

So, what gives with the Eagles not covering the last three weeks and nearly losing to a team with a losing record (Commanders and Colts) two weeks in a row?

The Offense

For one, the offense lacks some of the dominance we have seen from teams like the Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, and 49ers. The Eagles only have two games where they scored 30 points, and one of those was on opening day in Detroit with a pick-six included.

The Eagles are just not a team that routinely scores 30-plus points this year. They scored a historic number of points in the second quarter earlier in the season, then tried to cruise to a win in the second half.

But in the last two weeks, the Eagles have six turnovers after turning it over just three times during the 8-0 start. Turnovers can always be a great equalizer. Some of the plays were flukes, but they need to clean that up.

Tight end Dallas Goedert was also injured against the Commanders, and his absence was felt on Sunday in Indianapolis. The passing game struggled at times, and the Eagles failed to reach 20 first downs for the second week in a row.

The Defense

Defensively, the Eagles were having some problems stopping the run with five straight games allowing over 120 yards on the ground.

But they held the Colts to 99 yards and slowed down Jonathan Taylor after a bad start to the game defensively.

Future Doesn't Look Bright for Philly

The Eagles are still a very good team, but as the season wears on, it sure does not look like they are a historically great team.

If this team can lose at home to Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders by coughing the ball up three times and giving up 12 third-down conversions, then it can certainly struggle with Derrick Henry and the Titans (Week 13), the rematch in Dallas (Week 16), or a playoff game against the likes of the 49ers or even Tom Brady’s Buccaneers again.

Remember, the 2021 Eagles were 0-7 against teams that made the playoffs. This year’s Eagles may prove to be 2-0 against playoff teams so far, but those would be the Vikings (Kirk Cousins on a Monday night) and the Cowboys (backup Cooper Rush at quarterback). Not exactly the strongest of challengers.

Now we see the Eagles take on the weakest Green Bay team in quite some time, but we’ll see if the Packers can upset them the way they did Dallas.

Does Green Bay Have Any Edges?

Maybe the Packers just do better as an underdog, because as a home favorite against the Titans, they put in an embarrassing effort last Thursday in a 27-17 loss. Ryan Tannehill ended up passing for 333 yards, which has felt like 2.5 games worth of passing for this offense this season.

For just the second time in 37 prime-time starts at home, Rodgers lost by more than seven points. It dropped the Packers to 4-7, but the Titans are one hell of an underdog team themselves under Mike Vrabel. They also have a great run defense, which made it hard for the Packers to get things going on the ground.

That could be an area where the Packers find success in this game if they go with the offensive approach they showed against Buffalo and Dallas. Do not rely so much on Rodgers to throw to his inexperienced receiving corps but do lean on the backfield of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

Is Running Game the Way to Go?

The Eagles are only 19th in rushing yards allowed and 24th in yards per carry. Six teams have rushed for over 120 yards on Philadelphia this year, so the Packers need to stick with the running game here.

The days of Rodgers carrying this offense with his arm are over, especially without Davante Adams.

Will Christian Watson Shine Again?

While Rodgers is 5-1 in his career as a starter against the Eagles with 15 touchdowns to three interceptions, this is the biggest mismatch yet between his team and the Eagles. But one thing that has changed for the Packers in the last two weeks is the breakout play of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson.

He has five touchdown catches against the Titans and Cowboys, and he looks like a legit option now to go along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

The Eagles have great corners on the outside, so this may not be an ideal game for Watson. But Cobb returned against the Titans and looked very productive out of the slot, which could be big in this matchup.

But if the Packers can find a way to get that running game going again, then this could be a tight one in the fourth quarter.

Packers vs. Eagles: Best Bets and Prediction

Since 2019, the Packers under Matt LaFleur are 12-4 ATS as an underdog, the second-best record in the NFL in that time. We are used to seeing the Packers allow many points in these games against teams expected to be a top-two seed in the playoffs, so the Over is definitely in play here at the NFL odds.

But with the way the Eagles are struggling to own games by halftime the way they started this season, this still feels like a 60-minute game where the spread won’t be decided until the final minutes, if not the final drive.

Instead of NBC spending three hours talking about if this is the end of the road for Rodgers in Green Bay, I think he plays well enough to keep this game competitive and worth the watch.

It also should end with a Green Bay cover or possibly a push, but I would take the Packers with the points for your NFL picks to close out Sunday’s action.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27 - Packers 21

NFL Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Over 46.5 Points (-110)
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NFL Pick: Packers +7 (-110) at Bovada

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Packers +7 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.