Packers vs. Bears NFL Week 6 Picks and Odds Analysis

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Davante Adams #17 of the Green Bay Packers. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

The Chicago Bears welcome the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field this weekend, reprising their divisional rivalry in Week 6 of the NFL. The Packers have owned the Bears, winning nine of their last ten meetings. So, it’s no surprise that the Packers are at the advantage on the NFL odds board, spotting Chicago 4.5 points.

Even with a fresh new quarterback under center, books are cornering this game wholeheartedly with the Packers.

The way the market is cast, the inference is clear: upending Aaron Rodgers and Company is going to be a tough ask. So, the question is: Do the bookmakers have it right? Will Green Bay extends its dominance over Chicago? Or will Justin Fields and the Bears deliver an upset for Week 6 NFL picks?

Find out as we preview this matchup and serve up choice betting tips for your consideration.

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, October 17, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

Green Bay Packers Kicking Into Gear

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are coming off a right doozy against the Cincinnati Bengals on the road last weekend, needing overtime to clinch the 25-22 win in an exciting back-and-forth game that had everything imaginable in a football game including wildly errant kicking.

The Packers descended on the Bengals as the 2-point road chalk, and they faced a challenge from Joe Burrow and Company that was worthy of the point spread in the end.

In fact, the Packers only just covered in the overtime wins. Rodgers went 27 of 39 for 344 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. Aaron Jones led the team in rushing with 103 yards while Davante Adams put up 209 and a touchdown.

Justin Fields Era Up and Running

Rookie Justin Fields is the new proprietor of the Chicago Bears offense finally. Matt Nagy announced the decision ahead of last week’s encounter with the Las Vegas Raiders, and it paid dividends as the Bears delivered the surprising 20-9 upset at Allegiant Stadium. Well, it sort of did.

Fields had a solid game in his second NFL start, but to suggest the Bears won due to his play alone would be misleading. The Bears leaned on their stout defense and run game more than they did on the rookie, all the while grinding the Raiders into submission. The defense allowed merely three points in the first 51 minutes!

Books had closed with Chicago catching 5.5 points in this game, but they squashed Derreck Carr and the supposedly potent Raiders offense with relative ease instead. The defense held the Raiders to 259 yards in total offense and 9 points. Khalil Mack got his revenge on his former team finally, recording one of three sacks on Carr and doing his part in general to make it a long and painful day for the Raiders.

Fields really didn’t have to do much as he went 12 of 20 for 111 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions. It wasn’t all smooth sailing for Fields though who was knocked about a bit and forced out of the game for several snaps to nurse a knee issue. Dandy Andy stepped in for a few snaps. Khalil Herbert and Damien Williams put up 139 yards rushing with one touchdown.

Predictions and Picks

Past trends point towards a comprehensive win for the Green Bay Packers here. Aaron Rodgers has dominated this matchup over his 13-year career in the NFL, and since Matt LaFleur’s arrival, the Packers are 4-0 SU against the Bears. The last result between this pair was a 35-16 win by the Packers at Soldier Field.

It’s hard to imagine anything but a Green Bay win, therefore, even though the Bears are trotting out a brand new quarterback. That in of itself can’t tip the balance, and especially not when it involves a rookie quarterback.

Never mind, Nagy hasn’t bested LaFleur in four attempts, and none of his Bears' installments over the last three years have enjoyed any success against the Packers. So, it would be quite the accomplishment for this Bears installment to do it.

Granted, Fields and the Bears are riding the momentum of a back-to-back winning streak, but those wins have come against the Lions and Raiders. The Packers are at another level and totally dialed into this division rivalry. After all, they’ve sent the Bears crashing back down to earth on numerous occasions.

Don’t be distracted by the Packers’ nerve-wracking overtime win over the Bengals. Sometimes games are tougher than many would expect. Some of the credit for that has to go to the Bengals, who are a team on the rise with a second-year quarterback that’s adjusting well to life in the NFL.

There’s another angle to that matchup to consider as well, which is the fact that the head coaches, Zac Taylor and Matt LaFleur, know each other well from their days with Sean McVay in Los Angeles. So, one could argue they had the inside track on each other’s game, and that showed in the way their Week 5 contest unfolded.

All told, the Packers are the better team and should come through for their backers with the win and cover. Most BMR's top-rated sportsbooks have the Packers as the 4.5 road chalk, but some have gone down to -4 already. If the Packers are in top form, as they’ve been in previous years, they should cover this line comfortably.

It’s worth noting that the numbers 4 or 4.5 are dead numbers in the betting. So, those bettors that can wait before pulling the trigger for their NFL picks, stand a chance of potentially grabbing a better NFL line later in the week.

The ideal scenario is a line that falls under -4, but, of course, line movement and the direction of movement aren’t guaranteed. So, waiting is a decision, and risk bettors must decide individually.

NFL Picks: Packers -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Packers -4 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.