Our Top NFL Week 11 Parlay: Best Bets for Sunday’s Games

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Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins . Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

This week’s top NFL parlay emphasizes two must-fade teams. Read ahead for details. Top sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Sunday’s Week 11 action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: the Dolphins vs. Jets and Bengals vs. Raiders. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at an online sports betting site.

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Sunday, November 21, 2021 – 1:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

Historically Bad Defense 

The Jet defense is officially bad on a historic level. In their last four games, they have surrendered 175 points and 1,890 yards.  As a consequence, they are the first team since 1966 to give up 45 points or more in three games out of four. It’s not like they are only facing elite offenses, either.

The Bills are very good, true, but the Colts had not scored more than 31 this season before amassing 45 against the Jets. They even took the foot off the gas pedal in that game. Likewise, the Patriots scored 54 in the Jets after failing to reach 30 points in a single contest. Even the Bills "only" average 31.1 points per game. Teams easily exceed their scoring average when they face the Jets.

Personnel Problem 

While there are schematic issues related to, for example, the Jets’ employment of nickel coverage, a cursory glance at the roster easily explains a lot of their defensive woes. The secondary consists of a lot of late-round draft picks, such as fifth-round cornerback Bryce Hall, fifth-round Nickelback Michael Carter, and so forth.

Michael Carter #32 of the New York Jets. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

There is little talent or experience in the secondary. Both deficiencies were exacerbated by the injury of safety Lamarcus Joyner.  Another big injury was to defensive end Carl Lawson, who was the team’s top free-agent signing and could have added a tremendous and tremendously needed boost to New York’s pass rush.

Tua is Back

Miami will be at its offensive peak with the return of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Know for your sports betting that he is a clear upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, as various statistics show.

Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP

Tua will get to reconnect with former college teammate Jaylen Waddle, who has been a consistent piece in the Dolphin attack except against higher-end secondaries like Buffalo’s with its top-ranked pass defense. New York’s pass defense quality is obviously lightyears removed from Buffalo’s.

Jet Offense vs. Dolphin Defense 

Miami’s defense is playing to the level that one expected from it after its resurgence last year. Most impressively and most recently, the Dolphins stymied Lamar Jackson en route to a 22-10 win over Baltimore.

Whether the Jets start Mike White or Zach Wilson, the stacked and expensive Dolphin secondary will get to face an interception machine. While White had his moments, he has been figured out, as Buffalo knew to take away his short passing game.

NFL Pick: Dolphins ML at -158 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, November 21, 2021- 4:05 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium 

Budding Trend 

This season, Las Vegas has been hit shockingly hard by a barrage of off-the-field issues, the last being Henry Ruggs’ criminal incident.

Since Ruggs has been released, the Raiders are 0-2 SU and ATS. They lost as the favored team against the Giants. Then, and most recently, the Chiefs plastered them by 27 points, despite Kansas City’s previous offensive mediocrity.

Raiders Offense vs. Bengal Defense 

Ruggs’ departure means that the Raiders lack a needed weapon -- Ruggs was a speedy playmaker and the team’s top pass-catcher -- to help Derek Carr deal with Cincinnati’s improved secondary. It is true that the Bengals have allowed a lot of points lately. But they faced a Jet quarterback in Mike White who was a new commodity at the time. 

Quarterback Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders. Ethan Miller/Getty Images/AFP

Despite that anomaly, the Bengals rank in the upper half in limiting opposing passer rating. They feature an All-Pro selection at safety in Jessie Bates and a cornerback in Chidobe Awuzie who is yielding a 53.6-percent completion rate when targeted.
Most recently, Cincinnati lost to a Browns team that did not hurt it via the passing game. Cleveland’s total yardage actually mirrored Cincinnati’s and the Browns thrived with Nick Chubb at running back.

The Raiders, though, do not boast a dangerous ground game. They are held back by an offensive line whose members, outside of tackle Kolton Miller, struggle to secure competent run-blocking grades per PFF. These struggles largely explain why Vegas ranks 28th is averaging 85 rushing yards per game.

Bengal Offense vs. Raider Defense 

Vegas’ pass defense stats are flattered by soft competition. The Raiders faced three quarterbacks who rank top-10 in passing yards. They lost to the Justin Herbert-led Chargers and required overtime to escape a Raven team beset by massive struggles in its secondary. Both quarterbacks -- Herbert and Lamar Jackson -- produced passer ratings superior to their season average when facing this Raider secondary. 

Mahomes is the third top-10 quarterback and he amassed a season-high 406 passing yards against Vegas. With one’s best bets in mind, one can only expect the same success from a Bengal quarterback in Joe Burrow who regularly bounces back with added success after a bad performance.

The Verdict

Expect Miami’s defense to continue surging against an easy test in New York’s offense, while the Jet defense continues to stop nobody. Meanwhile, the Raiders will continue free-falling as their inept rush attack and Cincinnati’s secondary limit their offense.

On defense, they won’t curb a Bengal offense that can hurt them through the air while adding balance via the NFL’s eighth-leading rusher Joe Mixon on the ground. For the above reasons, I recommend investing in the Dolphins and Bengals with your NFL picks.

Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

NFL Pick: Bengals ML at -115 with BetOnline

Sunday’s Parlay

+205 with BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.