The Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) take their undefeated record on the road to face the Houston Texans (1-5-1), who are in last place in the AFC. The game looks like a considerable mismatch on paper, but you never know when the malaise of Thursday Night Football is going to impact the better team.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Houston Texans
Thursday, November 3, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at NRG Stadium
Jalen Hurts (Eagles)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Under 0.5 Pass Interceptions
Hurts moved up to second in the MVP race behind Josh Allen after throwing 4 touchdowns against the Steelers on Sunday. But this matchup against the Houston defense strongly favors the Philadelphia running game, which we know the Eagles value highly, to begin with.
- Houston’s pass defense has allowed 5 touchdown passes and made 7 interceptions.
- Houston’s run defense ranks 32nd in carries, 32nd in yards, 29th in rushing touchdowns (10), and 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.6).
The Chargers were the only offense that failed to rush for over 130 yards against these Texans. Houston has already allowed four players to score multiple touchdowns against them in seven games this year, including three players to score 3 touchdowns since Week 4 (Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry).
Hurts has limited his rushing the last two weeks and has not scored a rushing touchdown in either game, but this is a matchup designed for him to run one in from short as he often does.
Hurts scored a rushing touchdown in four of the first five games this season, including two games with multiple scores. This should be a game where he finds the end zone with his legs again, maybe even more often than his arm.
Hurts also has just 2 interceptions this season. He rarely throws them, especially in games where his team is favored to win. The Eagles have been so dominant in the second quarter this year that the team has yet to trail after the two-minute warning of the first half. This keeps Hurts out of situations where he may have to force passes to get his team back in the game.
There is little reason to believe this Houston team will force the Eagles into their toughest game of the season. Hurts should come out of this one with a clean interception number again.
NFL Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 0.5 Pass Interceptions (-189) at Bovada
Davis Mills (Texans)
- Over 34.5 Pass Attempts
- Over 0.5 Pass Interceptions
It is so tempting to bet the Under 215.5 on Davis Mills’s passing yards in this one against a great Philadelphia pass defense. Mills had 73 passing yards in the first 58 minutes against Tennessee on Sunday. He then more than doubled his total with 79 yards after the two-minute warning on what turned out to be a meaningless touchdown drive in the loss.
The expected game script for this one still bugs me for this pick, because you could see the Eagles jumping out to a big lead and Houston continuing to throw with Mills hitting his over in garbage time.
The Eagles have held five out of seven opposing quarterbacks to under 215.5 passing yards, but we’re not getting burned here by some meaningless 40-yard bomb to Brandin Cooks in the final minute.
The safer pick is for Mills to go over 34.5 pass attempts, which is what every quarterback except Trevor Lawrence has done against these front-running Eagles. Lawrence also had a 14-0 lead in his game in addition to rainy weather. But every other Philadelphia game is basically decided by halftime with the losing quarterback trying to catch up.
Playing from behind is also why it is so easy to expect Mills to get intercepted in this one. He has done it 10 times in the 20 NFL games he has thrown passes in. The Eagles have 10 picks this year and have intercepted every quarterback they faced except for Carson Wentz, because they kept sacking him. Trust Mills to throw an interception for your NFL picks.
NFL Prop Pick: Davis Mills Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-124) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Davis Mills Over 0.5 Pass Interceptions (-197) at Bovada
Miles Sanders (Eagles)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Over 81.5 Rushing Yards
With a touchdown in three of the last four games, it is looking like we can trust Miles Sanders to find the end zone this year after never crossing it in 2021. Given the juiciest matchup of the season with the Texans, it is hard to imagine he can’t get at least one score in this game. Hurts playing vulture for all the short ones is the only real concern here.
But we know Sanders averages 4.9 yards per carry (5.1 for his career) and can hit some big plays too. His over 81.5 rushing yards is another pick to like given Houston’s problems with stopping the run. Sanders should also be fresh after only playing a season-low 29 snaps against the Steelers on Sunday as that game was decided early.
There is a concern with this matchup that the Eagles get ahead too big too early and they end up with four different players rushing for over 50 yards as Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell get some production too against the worst run defense in the league.
Boston Scott (+400) may even be a great value pick for a touchdown scorer in this one. But we are going to trust Sanders to deliver with the opportunities he gets.
NFL Prop Pick: Miles Sanders Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-112) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Miles Sanders Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Bovada
DeVonta Smith (Eagles)
- Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
The Eagles have the luxury of picking and choosing which receiver to feature each week. On Sunday, it was A.J. Brown’s day against the Steelers with 156 yards and 3 touchdowns.
DeVonta Smith still had 8 targets, but they were mostly all short throws with him finishing with 5 catches for 23 yards. He is capable of much more than that.
With the Texans knowing they have to stop Brown after what he did on Sunday and familiarity with him when he was in Tennessee, look for Smith to be more involved in this game.
He only needs 52 yards to hit his over, which should not be that difficult to achieve.
NFL Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Bovada
Dameon Pierce (Texans)
- Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards
This one was too amusing to pass up with the Texans really lacking in receiver prop picks with Brandin Cooks questionable to play after he was frustrated the team did not trade him before the deadline.
Dameon Pierce is Houston’s productive rookie running back, though his catches have not been very productive this year. Pierce has 20 catches and the longest gain on any of them was 12 yards. He is only averaging 4.9 yards per reception this season.
We are going to trust the numbers and take the Eagles to hold Pierce short of any 12-yard gain through the air.
NFL Prop Pick: Dameon Pierce Longest Reception Under 11.5 Yards (-125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.