NFL Week 9 Parlay (+271): Bears Pull Off Upset and Packers Cover Spread

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Khalil Herbert #24 of the Chicago Bears scores a 25-yard receiving touchdown during the second quarter against the New England Patriots. Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP.

Online Sports Betting Sites have released their NFL odds for this week’s NFL action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Dolphins vs. Bears
  • Packers vs. Lions

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at the top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

Miami's Key Vulnerability

The Dolphins might seem to match up well against Chicago due to the simple facts that their run defense ranks strongly and Chicago relies heavily on running the ball. But this thought process is problematic because it doesn't account for the Dolphin run defense's distinctive performances against stronger ground games.

Miami has benefitted from facing teams like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh that rank bottom-seven in rushing yards per game. But run defense has been a problem when faced with stronger challenges.

Dolphin losses include a blowout loss to the Jets in which Breece Hall ran for 97 yards. In a similar vein, the only other rush attack, besides Chicago's, that ranks top two in rushing yards per game is Baltimore, which relied on running the ball to score 38 points against Miami.

Chicago's Rush Attack

Offensively, Chicago's outlook is positive tonight largely because it boasts the NFL's top ground game. The Bears rank, by far, number one with 188.4 rushing yards per game.

Running back Khalil Herbert has taken immense strides this season, progressing from 4.2 YPC to 6.2 YPC. Of course, fellow running back David Montgomery poses an added threat.

Quarterback Justin Fields is also dangerously mobile, he has rushed for 60 yards or more in each of his team's last three games alone. These are a lot of rushing threats that the Dolphin defense must account for whereas even Baltimore's ground game relied rather heavily on its quarterback.

Justin Fields' Outlook

After a painful start to the season, Fields is becoming more consistent and efficient.

Miami's beleaguered secondary and 26th-ranked pass defense will be prone to an improving Fields who gets an added weapon.

Chicago wasn't just a seller before the trade deadline. The Bears also added wide receiver Chase Claypool, who is reportedly expected to make his debut on Sunday.

Dolphins Offense vs. Bears Defense

The success of Miami's offense is likely to hinge on that of its pass attack because its talent, especially in the form of two big-name wide receivers, is concentrated in this offensive aspect.

Chicago's recent losses, the Bears traded away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn, leave the secondary intact. 

Starting safety Eddie Jackson has been practicing and has a very good chance of playing despite hurting his hip.

Aided by Jackson and top cornerback Jaylon Johnson, Chicago owns the fifth-best pass defense.

NFL Pick: Bears +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

The Importance of Green Bay's Ground Game 

With the team's obvious deficiency at the wide receiver position, it is imperative to Green Bay's offensive success that its ground game thrives. The Packers certainly have the personnel to reliably thrive on the ground.

Aaron Jones, a great threat to catch passes in addition to running the ball, averages 5.9 YPC. More powerful fellow running back AJ Dillon adds 4.1 YPC.

Green Bay's highest-scoring games, 27 against a New England team missing key run-stopper Lawrence Guy and 27 against Chicago, came against the NFL's worst run defenses. Similar to the Bears, Detroit ranks bottom-three in run defense.

In addition to Jones and Dillon thriving against Detroit's repeatedly porous run defense, play-action possibilities will be constantly and vividly available to Aaron Rodgers.

Detroit's Key Injuries 

In its endeavor to keep pace with the Packer offense, Detroit misses tight end TJ Hockenson, who is now a Viking.

Running back D'Andre Swift, who is listed as 'questionable' with an ankle injury, likely will play but in limited capacity.

Swift had 5 carries for 6 yards last week against Miami and seems in store for a similarly unproductive day.

Jared Goff's Outlook 

Especially without a healthy Swift, Detroit's offense will lean heavily on its pass attack. But Jared Goff has struggled against top-ranking pass defenses.

So far, the Lions have faced two top-five pass defenses, Dallas' and Philadelphia's.

Goff's passer rating was a miserable 80.4 against the Eagles and 71.2 against the Cowboys. His outlook on Sunday is negative because the Packer pass defense ranks second.

NFL Pick: Packers -3.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

NFL Parlay Verdict 

For this NFL pick, expect Chicago to surprise Miami and Green Bay to race past Detroit.

For the above reasons, I recommend parlaying the Bears ATS with the Packers ATS, and be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

NFL Parlay Picks

  • Miami vs. Chicago: Bears +4.5 (-108)
  • Green Bay vs. Detroit: Packers -3.5 (-108)

NFL Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+271) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.