NFL Week 9 Last Chance Value Picks: Two Underdogs and a Belichick

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Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots reacts against the New York Jets. Mike Stobe/Getty Images/AFP.

With just 13 NFL games this week, currently seven contests feature NFL odds of 3.5 points or less, and three others had double digits. That makes for challenging handicapping as we reach the midpoint of the regular season.

For our purposes, two of the three tilts that have our attention for value are outside those 10 games and we have what should be a live road underdog against the betting odds.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

The Miami Dolphins signaled in the off-season they were going to try and not only make the playoffs, but they wanted to be a serious AFC contender when they traded for Tyreek Hill. This past Tuesday at the trade deadline, they backed up that belief in trading for linebacker Bradley Chubb and running back Jeff Wilson.

At 5-3, the Dolphins appear to have an advantageous schedule for the next three contests starting in the Windy City. While on the surface Miami should win its next trio of tasks, they are on a 1-4 ATS run and could have lost to Pittsburgh or Detroit in their past two games.

Chicago at 3-5 is what most expected from the Bears. Chicago no doubt has flaws, nevertheless is improving, especially on offense under first-year coach Matt Eberflus.

The Monsters of the Midway have moved up to the No.1 rushing team in the league at 188.5 yards a contest. Sure the passing game remains a joke, the worst by a wide margin, but outside of Dallas last week, Chicago has played competitively.

Dolphins In Unfavorable Spot

Miami is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road with Tua Tagovailoa and Chicago traded away two of their top defensive players in the last week. Still, not sold on the Fins handing out 4.5-points on the road. The Bears' defensive weakness is the run (31st) and Miami ranks 28th running the pigskin.

Also, check this football system that has worked wonders: November favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Dolphins, having failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, are a miserable 3-24 ATS.

NFL Pick: Bears +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Bears +4.5 (-108)
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

The Indianapolis Colts thought they were ready to take away the AFC South crown from Tennessee this season. The addition of Matt Ryan was going to be the final piece to their ascension.

That has turned out not to be true with Matt Ryan permanently benched and their offensive coordinator fired earlier this week. The Colts are scoring 16.1 PPG, with only Denver and Pittsburgh worse.

The offensive line cannot block, either for running or passing the ball, which is most likely why Andrew Luck previously retired.

After their dismal showing against Chicago on Monday night, New England rebounded and slowed the red-hot New York Jets on the road last week 22-17. That lifted the Patriots back to .500 and they’ll have a legit chance to keep improving their record.

Pats Can Take Shortcut to Spread Winner

The best sportsbooks show New England as a 5.5-point home fave. The Patriots are not close to their years of glory and actually have a poorer yardage differential than Indy (-16 vs. +19).

Indianapolis is only averaging 10.5 PPG on the road and while they figure to score a few more, an offensive outbreak seems unlikely. Also, only twice have the Colts had less than two turnovers and in six of the eight games the Pats have played, they have generated two or more miscues.

One Indy turnover could be enough for the Patriots to cover and two would cement it, backing the Belichick’s.

NFL Pick: Patriots -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Patriots -5 (-108)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium

The Arizona Cardinals cannot seem to get out of their own way. You watch the Redbirds play and you see many positives. They have drives in which they move down the field with ease and score touchdowns and you think, “Wow” if they could only be more consistent. And that’s the problem.

Arizona continually shoots itself in the foot so often it seems like they are wearing Crocs instead of football shoes. This happens in all three phases of the game, where the offense, defense, and special teams commit blunders that cause them to lose.

Seattle on the other hand is one of the best surprises in the NFL. Nearly everyone agreed they had the worst quarterback room in the league before the season. Yet, here is Geno Smith in his 10th season playing like a Top 10 quarterback.

It would also be remiss not to mention Pete Carroll, whose positive attitude and belief in his players gave them the confidence to excel and they have. The Seahawks are 4th in the league in scoring at 26.3 PPG and the defense has only allowed 15 PPG in winning and covering three straight.

Coaching Differences and Turnovers Decide Outcome

In this NFC West battle, Pete Carroll has a better feel and understanding of his team than Kliff Kingsbury. That will help Seattle when it matters and the players will believe in their abilities.

As we spoke about the Cardinals making miscues, the Seahawks have forced two turnovers in seven of their eight games, which they have frequently turned into points.

Arizona has one victory in their last nine home games and Seattle is 9-2 ATS versus poor defensive teams allowing 5.65 or more yards a play. The Hawks outright for NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Seahawks +2 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Seahawks +2 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.