Each week we scour the NFL odds on Monday morning to find weak numbers that can be exploited. After comparing the Sunday night openers to where the numbers have already moved, we found games featuring the Bears, Commanders, and the Cardinals that appear to give us the value we need at the numbers we like to keep cashing our NFL picks!
Miami Dolphins vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 6, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field
The Dolphins trailed by 10 entering the 3rd quarter and were in peril of losing to the lowly Detroit Lions. But Miami would score 2 touchdowns and hold the Lions scoreless in the second half, leading to a 31-27 win and barely covering as 3.5-point road chalk. Miami is now 5-3 straight-up and 4-4 against the spread.
The Bears enter with a 3-5 mark (3-4-1 ATS) and were outclassed last week, 49-29, by the Cowboys in Dallas and failed to cover as 10.5-point road underdogs. Justin Fields had 151 passing yards and 2 touchdowns while the Bears’ rushing attack was impressive, racking up 240 yards.
Pick and Prediction
This line opened Miami -3.5, but that has already jumped to -4.5 as of this early Monday morning writing. We are now getting the home team through another key number and the way the Chicago offense acquitted itself last week against the Cowboys gives me hope that they could be an excellent value as a viable home dog.
Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 - Bears 23
Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField
The Vikings are livin’ large and completely in charge of the NFC North boasting a 6-1 record (3-4 ATS) with nobody even remotely in their rearview mirror. Last week was more of the same as Minnesota proved too much for the Cardinals in a 34-26 victory at home. This was the second ATS cover in as many games for the Vikings.
Don’t look now, but the Commanders have won 3 straight and are now a .500 ball club. Last Sunday, Taylor Heinicke engineered a 9-play, 89-yard drive in the last few minutes of the game and punctuated it with a one-yard plunge into the end zone. When the smoke cleared, the Commanders claimed a 17-16 win over the Colts and covered as 3-point road dogs.
Pick and Prediction
We see the oddsmakers hung a very early number with the Vikings as 2.5- point road favorites, but it didn’t take long for that number to drift over and above the magic number 3. We now see some of the best sportsbooks, like Heritage Sports, dealing Minnesota -3.5 which gives value-lovers like us a reason to take a bite on the home pup in this one.
Predicted Score: Vikings 23 - Commanders 20
NFL Pick: Commanders +3.5 (-118) at Heritage Sports
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 6, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Who are the Seattle Seahawks? Believe it or not, they are the NFC West leaders and if you told me that they would be in this spot after 8 weeks, I would have told you to have another Starbucks. However, as Bill Parcells famously said a long time ago, “You are what your record says you are,” and the Seahawks are 5-3 straight-up and against the spread.
The Hawks have now won and covered in their last 3 consecutive games including their 27-13 Week 8 victory over the Giants.
The Cardinals are 3-5 on the season (4-4 ATS) and nestled in last place in their division along with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. Arizona traveled to Minnesota last week where they dropped a 34-26 decision to the Vikings.
However, DeAndre Hopkins’ presence was felt after returning to action for his 2nd game of the season after serving a 6-game suspension and catching 12-of-13 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown.
Pick and Prediction
Arizona opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but the sharps took a big piece out of the visiting Seahawks to the point where oddsmakers at all of the major offshore shops have dropped this number below 3, the most important number in football.
And although it is true the Seahawks have already defeated the Cardinals this season by the score of 19-9 on October 16th in Seattle, we should consider that this was before the Redbirds got DeAndre Hopkins back in the lineup. If we can get the home team at -2.5 then we are all for it.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 27 - Seahawks 20
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.