NFL Week 8 TNF Top Player Props: Will Tom Brady Rebound Against the Ravens?

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Running back Gus Edwards #35 of the Baltimore Ravens runs for a touchdown against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on October 23, 2022. Rob Carr/Getty Images/AFP

The Baltimore Ravens (4-3) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) are meeting Thursday night in a game that was expecting better starts from both teams. But that just may raise the stakes for this one as neither team wants to lose another game before November.

The Ravens are a 1-point road favorite in a game with a total of 45.5 points according to the latest NFL odds. Can Tom Brady bounce back against an old AFC nemesis from Baltimore, or will Lamar Jackson hand the Buccaneers a third-straight loss?

We look at some of the best props picks for this matchup that will hopefully feature more touchdowns than the typical Thursday night game this season.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thursday, October 27, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium

Quarterback Props

Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

  • Over/Under 19.5 Pass Completions
  • Over/Under 210.5 Passing Yards
  • Over/Under Over 9.5 Carries

We were seeing MVP-caliber stuff from Jackson in the first three games this season, but ever since the Buffalo loss, his passing has cooled down dramatically, as has the scoring for the Ravens:

  • First three games: 249.7 passing yards per game, 10 TD, 2 INT, 8.51 yards per attempt, 33.0 points per game
  • Last four games: 162.0 passing yards per game, 3 TD, 4 INT, 5.94 yards per attempt, 20.5 points per game

What gives? Some combination of facing better defenses (Bills in the rain and Giants on the road), division familiarity (Bengals and Browns), and not having No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Bateman for a couple of games.

Defenses also are not afraid of blitzing Jackson this season. Jackson has faced a blitz on 42.1% of his passes in 2022, second to only Zach Wilson (44.6%) according to Pro Football Reference. No other quarterback is above 40%. Meanwhile, Brady is blitzed 19.3%, the second-lowest rate.

Jackson can expect a fair number of blitzes from Todd Bowles’ defense, which ranks fifth in blitz rate (31.9%) and ninth in pressure rate (24.7%) this season.

While Jackson got Bateman back last week, he completed just nine passes against the Browns. Jackson has completed 20 passes just twice in seven games this season and, in 16 prime-time starts, he has five games with 20-plus completions. He has not surpassed 210 passing yards since Week 3.

With Jackson’s recent passing struggles, questionable injury statuses for Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman and Tampa’s blitz-happy defense, we like Jackson to hit his unders in passing and his over in rushing attempts. This season, he has at least 10 rush attempts in four out of seven games.

NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-122) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 Carries (-134) at Bovada

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Lamar Jackson Over 9.5 Carries (-134)
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Tom Brady (Buccaneers)

  • Over/Under 38.5 Pass Attempts
  • Over/Under 282.5 Passing Yards

If this is Tom Brady’s final season for real, it is starting to look like Kobe Bryant’s swansong. You just let him take as many shots as he wants, because who is going to overrule him at this point?

Brady already threw 719 passes in 2021, the second-highest total in NFL history. This season, his yards per attempt (6.6) is at its lowest point since 2002, and his touchdown percentage (2.7%) would be a career low, replacing his final season in New England in 2019 (3.9%).

This is why we certainly like Brady to go over 38.5 pass attempts in this game. He has thrown at least 42 passes in all three home games this season, and he had 49 throws in Carolina on Sunday.

His over in passing yards (282.5) is also a good NFL pick since this Baltimore defense is known for giving up huge passing totals. The Ravens have allowed five 400-yard passers since the start of the 2021 season, by far the most in the NFL.

With the ground game not quite clicking for the Buccaneers this year and Brady playing from behind as much as he ever has in his career, this is a great formula for him to throw a lot to keep the Buccaneers in this game. Plus, we know the Ravens are terrible at holding double-digit leads, so do not be surprised if this is one more big Brady comeback in front of a national audience.

NFL Pick: Tom Brady Over 38.5 Pass Attempts (-122) at Bovada

NFL Pick: Tom Brady Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-114) at Bovada

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Tom Brady Over 282.5 Passing Yards (-114)
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Running Back Props

Gus Edwards (Ravens)

  • Over/Under 44.5 Rushing Yards

In keeping with our game script from the quarterbacks, the Buccaneers like to abandon the run in these big matchups, plus the recent uptick in snaps for Rachaad White has limited Leonard Fournette’s rushing production. Fournette is more reliable as a receiver these days.

We know the Ravens do not like to abandon the run no matter the matchup. In past years, Tampa Bay was reliably an elite run defense. That is not the case in 2022 as the Buccaneers have slipped to No. 16 in both rush yards and yards per carry allowed. You can have success on this defense now as Carolina did last week with D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard.

Gus Edwards returned to action for the Ravens last week for his first game since the 2021 season thanks to injuries. He got the job back after J.K. Dobbins' knee was acting up again. Edwards shined in his return against the Browns with 66 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

Edwards hasn’t played Tampa Bay since 2018 when he had one of his six 100-yard rushing games, but we don’t even need half of that production to hit his over in this matchup. Edwards should have no problem getting over 45 yards in this game.

NFL Pick: Gus Edwards Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at Bovada

Receiver Props

Mike Evans (Buccaneers)

  • Over/Under 69.5 Receiving Yards

Mike Evans dropped a 64-yard touchdown on the third play against Carolina, and that really seemed to put the offense in a funk for the rest of the game. Evans knows it too, and the Buccaneers never really threatened again down the field in a shocking 21-3 loss to Carolina.

Evans still finished the game with nine catches for 96 yards, but he knows how much that miss hurt. He is still the best receiver on the team, and he has gone over 70 yards in four of the five games he finished this season.

The Ravens just allowed Jacoby Brissett to produce three 70-yard receivers against them on Sunday. We know Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill went nuclear on the Ravens in Week 2. This defense is not elite against No. 1 receivers.

Count on Evans to have a very nice game and clear 69.5 yards in this one.

NFL Pick: Mike Evans Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Bovada

Cade Otton (Buccaneers)

  • Over/Under 29.5 Receiving Yards

The tight end people are going to tune in to watch in this game is Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, who is likely the best in the league not named Travis Kelce right now. But Andrews has not been practicing this week and is in danger of missing this game due to injury.

With tight end Cameron Brate already ruled out for the Buccaneers again, fourth-round rookie Cade Otton is given another significant opportunity to shine in his absence. Otton had 43 yards against Atlanta when Brate was nursing a concussion. He had 64 yards on four catches in Carolina with Brate out again.

Asking Otton to clear 30 yards as Brady’s No. 1 tight end in this matchup should be a piece of cake.

NFL Pick: Cade Otton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-124) at Bovada

Prop Parlay

Leonard Fournette & Gus Edwards

  • Will Both Players Score a Touchdown?

Putting it all together, we like the touchdown scorer parlay for the lead back on both teams to get a touchdown. Edwards is a safer bet than Jackson himself and Kenyan Drake may have been a one-game outlier against the Giants for this offense.

As for Fournette, he’s had some issues on short-yardage runs this year, but he is still a trusted red-zone player for this offense. Not only can he run one in, but he can catch a short touchdown from Brady as he did against the Steelers, which was actually his third game in a row with a receiving touchdown this season. Fournette only has one rushing touchdown in 2022. Maybe he can change that in this matchup.

It would just be nice to get a Thursday night matchup with several touchdown scorers on both teams but focus more on the yardage props in this one instead of who finds the end zone.

NFL Pick: Leonard Fournette & Gus Edwards Both to Score a Touchdown (+300) at Bovada

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Leonard Fournette & Gus Edwards Both to Score a Touchdown (+300)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.