We have already made it to the last week of October. Everybody knows NFL games are hard to predict, yet, system football bettors who just focus on underdogs and Unders for totals are making profits like companies that continue to shrink the size of products while charging more.
There has been a lot of talk about the top-rated sportsbooks eventually leveling the playing fields on these components by continuing to adjust the NFL odds, but one has to wonder if it will be just one of those years.
Regardless, here is a trio of later-in-the-week picks that do offer value.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
The Arizona Cardinals have life again after beating New Orleans in Week 7, they are just one game behind the most shocking division leader in the NFL, Seattle.
With supposed NFL West favorites, the Rams and 49ers, stumbling and bumbling, Arizona with a victory could be tied for the division lead with wins in the next two weeks.
Minnesota was believed to possibly overtake Green Bay in the NFC North. That happened much sooner and easier than expected with the Packers in free fall and Chicago and Detroit trying to learn how to win.
The Vikings are no lock for NFL picks in this matchup with Arizona, only a 3.5-point home favorite. Let’s examine why.
Arizona Road Dog Warriors
The Cardinals just ended their eight-game home losing streak and that has to bolster their confidence. The Redbirds are already confident in the road white uniforms at 10-2 SU since last season.
Minnesota is 3-0 SU at home, but their only spread winner was over Green Bay in the opener, which feels less impressive now. The Vikes needed fourth-quarter comebacks in the final minutes to hold off Chicago and Detroit.
Arizona is a very impressive 15-5 ATS when catching points under coach Kliff Kingsbury and they are 8-1 ATS as a visiting pooch when receiving seven or fewer digits.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 30, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Coming into the season, not many experts were forecasting Las Vegas and New Orleans would have losing records at the end of October and that they might need even more time to reach .500 after that.
With how the Saints finished last year (4-1) and the improvement Jameis Winston made before getting injured, New Orleans looked like they could push Tampa Bay in the NFC South.
As it stands today, that could happen, just not in the way intended. Winston went back to his careless ways and though the offense averages 25 PPG, the Saints have just one game without a turnover for whoever has played under center.
Las Vegas has four setbacks and each is by six or fewer points. The offense has scored 163 points (27.2 PPG), yet in winning time when needed to score in the fourth quarter, they have 21 total points in the defeats.
Good Offenses + Weak Defenses = High Score
As noted, the offenses have and are likely to keep scoring points. Derek Carr has a varied offense and two star studs, at least this season in revitalized Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams.
New Orleans has moved the ball and gotten numerous uses out of Swiss-Army-Knife Taysom Hill and explosive rookie Chris Olave.
With each defense coughing up 25 or more points, the total of 50 can be surpassed.
With the Saints 8-1 Over after two straight games of 50 total points or more scored and the Raiders 10-2 Over against defenses allowing 4.5 or more yards a carry, the answer is obvious.
NFL Pick: Over 50 (-110) at Bovada
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 30, 2022 - 04:25 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Without question, this is the most unlikely contest to this point of the season that could have playoff implications.
Nobody, and we mean nobody saw these teams being .500 after seven weeks, yet among the leaders in the NFC East and NFC West.
The New York Giants are 6-1 SU and ATS and there is a belief they might be doing it with mirrors.
There might be a little truth to that seeing the G-Men on the season are being outgained by 21 yards a contest.
Head Coaches and Results
Though nobody is disputing rookie head coach Brian Daboll and his staff have done an amazing job in turning this franchise around.
Before the season, plenty of Seattle football fans wondered why Pete Carroll just didn’t retire instead of being stuck in a rebuild at 71 years of age.
Instead, Carroll outfoxed us all, at least to this point, as Geno Smith isn’t just having a career, as that wouldn’t do it justice. Make that a career-year times 10 for Smith!
The Seahawks are 5th in the NFL in scoring at 26.3 PPG thanks to Smith and the offensive staff of Seattle.
Giants Can Play The Rodney Dangerfield Card
New York was sent out as a one-point away dog at Seattle and quickly climbed to +3. Given their record, the Giants can use old-school comedian Rodney Dangerfield’s (Caddy Shack and Back to School movies and loads of YouTube bits) most famous line, “I can’t no respect”.
That seems to be the case with the Giants who are better statistically in almost every defensive category. Seattle does have the better and more explosive offense, yet, D.K. Metcalf is ‘questionable’ as of Friday morning.
Maybe Seattle does cover the NFL betting odds. Nevertheless, Big Blue plays quite well away from the Big Apple. The G-Men are 40-21 ATS in October road games, 28-12 ATS away after a win by six or less points, and are 17-5 ATS in road skirmishes after gaining 200 or more rushing yards.
NFL Pick: Giants +3 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.