Author’s note: Since writing this article on Monday there’s been a lot of change with Davante Adams and now Allen Lazard both on the COVID-19 list and due to
The Total has dropped to around 50, if you’ve not bet already I can’t take the over now, I’d be looking for Under 51 at -109 with GTbets.
The best looking game of the week on paper takes place on Thursday night in Arizona as the unbeaten Cardinals host the 6-1 Packers with the spread line rating them as just over a field goal favorite.
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Thursday, October 28, 2021 – 8:20 PM EDT at State farm Stadium
How Do the Packers Win This One?
As always with the Packers it falls mainly on Aaron Rodgers shoulders to get his team the win here, he’s 3rd in QBR on the season and has multiple TDs in every game since they didn’t turn up in the opener against the Saints, this past week for the Packers showed how good is as the ground game fell on its face with just 57 yards against Washington.
Rodgers threw for 274 and 3 TDs against that poor defense, and while you expect Davante Adams to score TDs for them, getting Robert Tonyan and Allen Lazard their second scores of the season, that’s two weeks in a row now for Lazard.
Davante Adams is possibly the best receiver in the league, and constantly keeps this team going, whether he’s doubled or triple-teamed, he’ll be targeted and he’ll probably catch the ball, his TD this week showed his bond with Rodgers as he threw across his body to the middle of the field and Adams walked in for the score.
The running game has been good this year with Jones and Dillon becoming more of a committee backfield, so it was strange seeing it so poor this week, I would expect them to bounce back coming into this one.
Can the Cardinals Stay Unbeaten?
Kyler Murray is one of the most exciting players in the league to watch, sure he could probably stay on the spot more often, but he’s proven brilliant at throwing the ball on the run and his mobility is key to their game. He took a few more hits this week including one nearly pulling his helmet off, that’s a worry as he’s usually so good at avoiding contact.
They need him to stay healthy to find their 4 WRs and now new tight end target as Zach Ertz scored on his debut this week. The pass-catching group as a whole has been very good this season and with Deandre Hopkins leading them now that he’s looking back to full health, he led the team in targets and found the endzone.
The beauty of this team at the moment is the ability to spread the ball around as this week it was Christian Kirk finding the endzone but it could easily have been AJ Green or Rondale Moore getting in the paint as they have done at points this season. They should be able to get the ball against a Packers secondary that ranks in the lower half of the league.
The Packers run defense actually ranks 30th according to DVOA so it could be a bigger week for James Conner who has been rushing better than I thought he would this season, he found the endzone again this week making it 6 in his last 5 games. He and Chase Edmonds have a good partnership.
The Cardinals defense has been surprising, ranked 2nd overall and the addition of JJ Watt to the defensive line has helped Chandler Jones and the group get pressure upfront while Isaiah Simmons has taken huge steps in his second season in the league, his physical ability was always there and now he’s showing his worth.
Who Takes Control of the NFC?
The winner of this will go to the top of the NFC and put themselves in line for the #1 seeding and the precious bye week come to the end of the season. It should be a very entertaining game full of points, and for my, NFL pick one, I’m looking forward to watching. Rodgers is 10-5 on Thursday nights and the road teams have been doing well against the spread this season, but this game could go either way and I know I’m one of those constantly under-valuing the Cardinals.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.