The New York Giants (2-5) can further shock the Kansas City Chiefs (3-4) with a win in Arrowhead on Monday night. The Giants just allowed a season-low in points on Sunday, defeating Carolina 25-3. The Chiefs lost 27-3 in Tennessee, the first wire-to-wire loss in the Patrick Mahomes era. Read on to take a look at the NFL odds and start making your NFL picks.
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, November 01, 2021 – 08:15 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
The Chiefs are a 10-point favorite at many of the top sportsbooks. The last three games for both of these teams have been decided by more than 17 points. Can we get a close one on Monday night? As a double-digit favorite with the Chiefs, head coach Andy Reid is 16-3 SU and 8-10-1 ATS. One of those losses was a 12-9 overtime loss to the 2017 Giants as a 10-point favorite, which was the last time the Chiefs were held to single-digit points in the regular season before Sunday in Tennessee.
Chiefs: What Happened?
In the simplest of terms, the Chiefs are playing bad football this season. The offense has 17 turnovers, five more than the next-closest team. Kansas City is turning the ball over on 25.4% of its offensive drives. The worst rate by any offense since 1993 was 25.3% by the 2006 Raiders. The difference between the Chiefs and other high-turnover offenses is that this offense can still move the ball at an elite level. The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 45.9 yards per drive and still rank fourth in points per drive.
The problem is this offense gets impatient and sloppy while trying to carry a defense that allows the most yards and points per drive of any in the league. On Sunday in Tennessee, the Titans were up 17-0 after three possessions. Mahomes, on his third possession of the day, forced a pass he probably wouldn’t force in a tighter game, and it was tipped and intercepted. The Chiefs have had many tipped balls for picks this year and fumbling has also been a huge problem as Mahomes lost a fumble before halftime too.
Defenses have taken a cautious approach to play the Chiefs. Mahomes is the least-blitzed quarterback in the NFL, yet his sack rate is currently at a career-high 4.8%. He took a nasty hit late in the game on Sunday, but he was able to pass a concussion test. The revamped offensive line has not paid off so far and the running game remains unreliable. If defenses can get to Mahomes with four-man rushes, it just frees up extra defenders to cover the receivers.
Despite the turnovers, the Chiefs have played winning offense in five of the seven games this season. But the pressing is getting worse, and it really showed in two of the last three weeks in ugly losses to the Bills and Titans, the worst performances by the Chiefs in the Mahomes era.
Giants: Another Upset?
We have seen the Chiefs lose their aura of invincibility on offense. All the great streaks they have accumulated over the years have been snapped. But the one last thing they might be able to hang their hat on is that it usually takes a very good, playoff-caliber team to beat them. The Chiefs have had a brutal schedule thus far and the remainder is also very difficult looking. The Chiefs have lost to the Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans. Those teams could all realistically be the AFC’s four division winners this season.
The only team with a losing record to beat the Mahomes-led Chiefs was the 2019 Colts (7-9) on a night where the Chiefs were playing injured. The 2021 Giants are 2-5 and don’t look to be headed anywhere this season. The Giants did upset the Saints in overtime a few weeks ago, but they were drilled 44-20 by the Cowboys and 38-11 to the Rams the next two weeks.
The Giants have a long list of injuries to skill players, and they usually struggle to score with those players available too. This has to be a get-right game for the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs have still hammered the other bad teams in the NFC East this season, beating the Eagles 42-30 (garbage-time touchdown scored by Eagles in the final seconds) and shutting out Washington in the second half in a 31-13 road win.
I would not predict another 18-point outcome here, but the Chiefs’ season is over if they blow this game. After hearing all the criticism this week, getting an extra day to prepare for a bad team should be a blessing. I trust the Chiefs to win this game, but I cannot trust them enough to cover right now. Since 2018, Kansas City is 1-6 ATS as a double-digit favorite in games with a projected total of 52 or more points. That describes this game, and I think the Giants can keep it close enough.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.