NFL Week 7 Parlay Features Dominant Raider Win and Seahawks on Upset Alert

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Derek Carr #4 of the Las Vegas Raiders gestures during the first half of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Jason Hanna/Getty Images/AFP

The best sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this week’s NFL action, and two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:

  • Texans vs. Raiders
  • Seahawks vs. Chargers

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for both games.

Feel free to parlay both bets at your favorite online sports betting site in order to maximize your profit.

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Houston Texans vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium

Davis Mills on the Road

Location matters for Houston's quarterback because he is awful specifically in road games. Whereas he has thrown 16 touchdowns to three interceptions in nine career home games, he has thrown five touchdowns to 11 interceptions in as many road games.

His career completion percentage is way lower on the road, and perhaps most tellingly, his career passer rating is 105.7 at home compared to 65.7 on the road.

Mills will struggle on the road regardless of the quality of his opponent. For example, he mustered 140 passing yards in Jacksonville against a Jaguar team that ranks 21st in allowing 244.5 passing yards per game.

Texans Ground Game vs. Raider Run Defense

A good running back can be a quarterback's best friend, especially in a hostile road environment. However, the outlook for Houston's rush attack is negative on Sunday.

Running back Dameon Pierce's only strong performance came against a Charger defense that is famous for neglecting to emphasize stopping the run.

Whereas the Chargers' run defense ranks 23rd, the Raiders' ranks fifth. Most notably, Las Vegas limited the Chargers' Austin Ekeler to 36 rushing yards and held Titan star, Derrick Henry, in check.

Josh Jacobs

I like the Raiders to cover the spread because they can assemble a complete performance on offense, whereas Houston will struggle to both run and pass the ball.

The Texans have had one of the worst run defenses throughout the year. For example, they allowed Bear backup running back Khalil Herbert to amass 157 rushing yards, by far a season-high for him.

Similarly, bad performances have led them to rank 30th at limiting opponents to 164.8 rushing yards per game.

The Raiders can take advantage with Josh Jacobs, who is coming off two rushing performances –against the Broncos and Chiefs– in which he rushed for over 140 yards.

Derek Carr and Davante Adams

Las Vegas' quarterback has finally developed a connection with his new star wide receiver.

Davante Adams is a deep threat that can hurt a Texan defense that struggled to contain a deep threat in Charger Mike Williams and that generally has had trouble limiting opponents' top wide receiver, with Michael Pittman Jr. of Indianapolis forming another example.

Houston has benefitted from facing meager pass attacks, but Carr has been productive yardage-wise against every opponent but Denver with its tough defense, and Carr will have a high-yardage outing on Sunday, especially with Adams out there.

NFL Pick: Raiders -7 (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Even Matchup

If you looked at the raw numbers, without a team name attached to them, you would think that these teams are pretty even. Comparison of both teams' points scored, points allowed, and total yards supports my point.

I think that the spread is much too high and that there is accordingly a lot of value in Seattle.

Seattle's Defensive Improvement

While the Seahawks lag behind the Chargers in defensive categories, they made important changes. They simplified their defensive concepts, giving players less to think about and thereby allowing their defenders to be more aggressive and to play more instinctively.

For example, they repositioned defensive ends Shelby Harris and Poona Ford to the B-gap and told them to focus on attacking that gap.

They concentrated, in other words, on a single gap while attacking opposing guards instead of opposing tackles.

These changes amounted to a win over Arizona in which the Cardinals failed to score an offensive touchdown.

Justin Herbert vs. Seahawk Pass Defense

Seattle has a great opportunity to continue improving defensively against a limited Charger offense.

Justin Herbert is likely still feeling the effects of a rib injury that he sustained some weeks ago. Most recently, against Denver, he constantly sought to check the ball down, ultimately mustering 4.2 yards per pass attempt.

This meager figure (4.2 YPA) was likely also influenced by Denver's pass rush.

As measured by sack rate, Seattle can also mount a formidable pass rush, as it did last week against Arizona.

Geno Smith vs. Charger Defense

Since becoming Seattle's new starting quarterback this season, Geno Smith is enjoying the best season of his career, in terms of passer rating.

Although helped by a strong wide receiver group, he was clearly underrated.

Smith did struggle last week, but Arizona's pass rush was largely responsible, and the solution seems pretty simple. Seattle will want to use Smith's mobility –he averages 4.8 YPC– to move the pocket in order to have Smith avoid the Charger pass rush.

The Chargers have benefitted from repeatedly facing statistical bottom-feeders at quarterback, but Smith ranks 10th in passing yards while being excellently efficient and so poses a tough test.

Running the Ball

Seattle is annually a run-friendly team. This tendency spells trouble for a team like the Chargers that, under its head coach, does not value run defense.

They rank 31st at limiting opposing YPC and are primed to struggle in this respect against Seattle's ground game led by Kenneth Walker and his 5.5 YPC.

NFL Pick: Seahawks +6 (-108) at BetOnline

Parlay Verdict

For this NFL pick, expect a strong win from the Raiders and a Seahawk surprise.

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for all your parlay betting needs.

  • Texans vs. Raiders: Raiders -7 (-108)
  • Seahawks vs. Chargers: Seahawks +6 (-108)

NFL Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+271) at BetOnline

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Two-Legged Parlay (+271)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.