NFL Week 7 Last Chance Value Picks: Two Shorts Favorites and a Total

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Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts. Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

Looked up what animal will be honored for the 2023 Chinese New Year and found it will be the Water Rabbit. The reason for doing this was to see if a dog would be involved because this year in the NFL, to date it is clearly the Year of the (Under)Dog.

As we head into Week 7 for the season, the Underdogs are 55-38-1 ATS, 59.1 percent. In spite of this, when looking at NFL odds, dogs can have perceived value but in years like this, the public can start falling in love with all the pooches, which shifts the value to the favorites. We offer two such situations plus one value-laden total selection.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Nissan Stadium

As we mentioned on these pages a few weeks back, the AFC South looked like it was up for grabs since Houston has not done much and Jacksonville’s 2-1 start has crumbled to 2-4 on a three-game losing streak. That leaves two familiar foes in the division, Indianapolis and Tennessee.

The Colts got over .500 for the first time this season, with a come-from-behind win with 17 seconds left in the contest over the Jaguars. While Indy was efforting to reach 3-2-1, Tennessee had the week off and will try and take control of the AFC South at home.

Titans in Good Spot for the Win and Cover

The best sportsbooks have made Tennessee a modest 2.5-point home favorite despite the fact they are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Colts the last two years. The Titans are also 5-0-1 ATS the past six seasons coming off a bye.

Besides the technical reasoning, Tennessee can also focus on getting after QB Matt Ryan with Indianapolis having the 29th-rated rushing attack.

The Titans' pass defense is pathetic (last in the NFL in yardage allowed), nevertheless, they are aggressive in getting after the quarterback and Indy has turnovers in 5 of their 6 contests and 2 or more miscues in 4 of them.

NFL Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Tennessee -2.5 (-108)
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New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

Having a head coach that knows what he is doing matters, use the New York Giants as Exhibit A. New head coach Brian Daboll instilled a work ethic and belief that if the Giants played hard and didn’t make mistakes to beat themselves, they would have success. Big Blue’s players have bought in and they are 5-1 SU and ATS.

Doug Pederson was praised early for making Jacksonville play like a club that knew what it was doing compared to the Urban Meyer debacle. Yet, since, the Jaguars have returned to the same old Jaguars on a 0-3 SU and ATS decline.

Follow the Oddsmakers and This System

If the G-Men are truly a squad on the rise, why then are they underdogs at Jacksonville, which is back to its old ways?

This is where to pay attention to what the books are saying for betting odds. You should know that a team off three straight ATS setbacks when facing an opponent off three consecutive covers (no byes involved), they beat the number about 70% of the time.

Next, let’s take that situation and have the home team with a line is +3 to -3 like the Jags, after three or more consecutive losses against the spread, against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread; they are a striking 22-5 ATS the last decade.

NFL Pick: Jacksonville -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Jacksonville -3 (-108)
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 08:20 PM EDT at Hard Rock Stadium

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a stunning 20-18 upset of Tampa Bay as a 9.5-point home dog, made even more unusual when Mitch Trubisky came off the bench to play for a concussed Kenny Pickett to lead them to victory. That lifted the Steelers to 2-4 (2-3-1 ATS) on the season.

Miami blasted out the starting blocks 3-0 SU and ATS, but once Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined, the Dolphins went south and are now .500 both straight up and versus the spread.

What is the right choice for NFL picks in the AFC encounter?

This Should Require Total(s) Wisdom

The Steelers are 4-2 Under on the year, and with the total at 45, you should realize only once has Pitt passed that figure and that was against Cleveland with 46 total points. Pittsburgh does not figure to score many points with Trubisky or Pickett.

Miami is in the same boat at 4-2 Under in 2022 and since ringing up 42 in Week 2 versus Baltimore, they have averaged a crummy 17.5 PPG. Granted, if Tua returns that will help, but he will have to play differently because holding on to the ball is what gets him in trouble. Will he have the instinct to toss it away when needed or be thinking about hits if he starts?

All signs point to a lower-scoring affair and road teams like Pittsburgh when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off one or more consecutive Unders, outscored by 7 or more points a game, are an astonishing 23-3 Under the past few years.

NFL Pick: Under 45 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Under 45 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.