Each week we scour the NFL odds early in the week to find weak numbers that can be exploited. This Monday morning, we have found three such games that have already moved from their openers and present a good opportunity to pounce and keep cashing our NFL picks!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Paycor Stadium
Marcus Mariota threw for a pair of touchdowns and took a three-yard plunge into the end zone to lead the Falcons to an impressive 28-14 win over the 49ers last Sunday as 3.5-point home underdogs. Atlanta’s defense also had a fumble recovery in the 49ers' end zone and picked off Jimmy Garoppolo twice.
The Bengals' offense began a bit sluggish last week until the third quarter when the Burrow-to-Chase connection heated up. And it was then that Cincinnati mounted a rally that saw them secure a 30-26 victory down on the Bayou and narrowly cover the three-point impost over the Saints.
Falcons vs. Bengals: Pick and Prediction
This line opened with the Bengals -7, but the sharps have taken a big ol’ bite out of that number by betting on the suddenly surging Falcons. And although I understand why Atlanta could be attractive in getting a touchdown head start, I can’t ignore the fact that this line has fallen below two key numbers (7 and 6) to where it now sits at Cincinnati -5.5.
What we should focus on are Atlanta’s 30th-ranked passing offense and their 31st-ranked passing defense. If the Bengals' prolific passing attack gets into high gear, the Falcons won’t be able to stick with their rushing attack and a shootout between Joe Burrow and Marcus Mariota will always end poorly for the latter. Bookmaker is the only shop among the majors to be dealing with this number so don’t wait!
Predicted Score: Bengals 27 – Falcons 16
New York Giants vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field
New York Giants
And just like that, the Giants are 5-1, courtesy of a 24-20 win over the Ravens last week. Big Blue crawled out of a 10-point deficit to notch the victory as Daniel Jones struck for a pair of passing touchdowns and Saquon Barkley racked up 83 yards on the ground including a one-yard dive into the end zone.
The Jags are proving they are no longer the pushovers they have been the last several years but their 2-4 record also indicates they have quite a way to go before they can be considered a threat.
Last week they led throughout much of the afternoon until the Colts returned fire and put the nail in the coffin with a 32-yard touchdown pass with 17 seconds remaining to beat Jacksonville, 34-27, and cover the number as one-point home chalk.
Giants vs. Jaguars: Pick and Prediction
Both teams have shown tremendous improvement over last year but the Giants have learned how to win while the Jags are still studying that portion of the playbook.
This week we see that the best sportsbooks have installed Jacksonville as three-point home favorites, and while that might be a bit head-scratching at first blush considering their respective records, we should also note that there is one thing the Giants don’t do well which is stop the run, currently ranked 28th in the league while the Jags own the No. 9 rushing unit.
As of this writing, we have identified a few A-rated books that have dropped below the magic number three and are hanging Jaguars -2.5 which could be all we need to get the cover.
Predicted Score: Jaguars 23 – Giants 20
NFL Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, October 23, 2022 - 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
The Seahawks evened their record to .500 with a 19-9 win over the Cardinals last week. It was one of the few stout defensive performances this team has exhibited this season, registering six sacks and one interception. As for the Seattle offense, much of the credit has to go to kicker Jason Myers who accounted for four field goals and an extra point.
Los Angeles Chargers
Two weeks ago, the Chargers engaged in a seesaw battle with the Browns but ultimately prevailed, 30-28, when the smoke cleared.
They followed that victory up on Monday night with another nail-biter when they eked out a 19-16 overtime win over the Broncos, the first time in 27 games that Bolts’ quarterback, Justin Herbert, was without a touchdown pass.
Seahawks vs. Chargers: Pick and Prediction
The line movement in this game is not much but it is significant. The books opened the Chargers -7.5, but the dog lovers have taken advantage of what can be a very important hook as it is now -7 across the board.
I like the Bolts in this spot. The Seahawks' defense is still suspect despite a fine performance against the anemic Cardinals offense while the Chargers should be able to give Herbert time in the pocket, a luxury he hasn’t had much of this season. Let’s lay it and like it with LA.
Predicted Score: Chargers 30 – Seahawks 17
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.