NFL Week 7 Betting Previews: Packers vs. Commanders and Lions vs. Cowboys

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Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions attempts a pass against the New England Patriots. Nick Grace/Getty Images/AFP.

The beatings will continue until the market improves. We had another profitable week of NFL picks here at the home office, taking advantage of all those casual fans who started betting on football this year. The New York Giants (+205) beat Baltimore straight-up, and the San Francisco-Atlanta matchup went comfortably Under 43.5.

Our Week 6 picks weren’t perfect, though. Instead of going Under, Cincinnati and New Orleans got into a shooting match, with the Bengals prevailing 30-26.

Let’s see if we can do better this week now that we’re going back to our free-to-use models and projections (FiveThirtyEight, et al.) for reference.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Commanders

Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at FedExField

You don’t need a computer to tell you that Washington (2-4 SU and ATS) are the sharp side of this equation. It isn’t them as much as the Packers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS), who are all kinds of mediocre now that QB Aaron Rodgers is basically calling his own plays.

The wise guys agree. At press time, the consensus reports at BMR show two-thirds of early bettors on the Commanders, who check in as 5.5-point home dogs on the NFL odds board at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review). That bumps up to 97% consensus for Washington at +190 on the moneyline.

But how much potential profit margin do we have here? That’s where the projections will help us. FiveThirtyEight only like Green Bay to win this matchup by 2.5 points, so they definitely want us to hammer the Commies.

On the other hand, ESPN’s Football Power Index is more bullish on the Packers, giving them a 67.7% chance of victory this Sunday. That’s the same as -210 when you run it through the unshakeable BMR Odds Converter. Suffice to say opinions are mixed when it comes to Rodgers and the Pack.

The Pick

That total, though. With both teams struggling on offense, this contest opened with a 42-point total at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review), which dipped to 40.5 points the following day. This is huge. Of all the magic numbers for totals, 41 is one of the most magical; Wizard of Odds says moving down from 41 to 40.5 is worth about nine cents of vigorish.

We don’t have an exact score projection for you at press time, but that won’t stop us from recommending the Over for a standard one-unit bet – especially with the fine folks at Bookmaker giving us -106 juice. It should be a lovely afternoon weather-wise in D.C., and as mediocre as Green Bay’s offense has been, their defense has performed worse.

Of course, we have to mention that Commanders' QB Carson Wentz (finger) is expected to miss the next 4-6 weeks. Wentz hasn’t played as badly as people seem to think, but his backup is Taylor Heinicke, who only represents a small step down in production level. Never mind that each team has the Under at 4-2 thus far; that’s part of the reason we’re getting a good price at 40.5.

NFL Pick: Over 40.5 (-106) at Bookmaker

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Over 40.5 (-106)
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Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, October 23, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium

It’s once again pretty obvious that the Lions (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) are the sharp side here, but if you need some evidence, the consensus reports have 76% of early bettors on Detroit as 7-point road dogs versus the Cowboys (4-2 SU and ATS).

Alas, that was enough action to knock the Lions down from +7.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Do we still have enough wiggle room to take Detroit at +7? Maybe not. FiveThirtyEight project Dallas to win by 8.5 points, which is roughly in line with the FPI numbers.

The Pick

We’re giving those projections the side-eye. QB Dak Prescott is supposed to be back in uniform for Dallas after messing up his right thumb in the season-opener; while this is a good thing for the Cowboys, Cooper Rush did a surprisingly decent job in relief of Prescott.

We don’t have the final updated stats yet from Football Outsiders, but they have Rush ranked between Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill on their passing DYAR charts. This doesn’t leave much room for improvement with Prescott coming off a long injury layoff. And we’re not seeing a lot of betting value on either the moneyline (Dallas -360) or the total (48.5 points).

Did we mention the Lions have the best offense in the NFC, at least according to the Simple Rating System numbers at Pro Football Reference? Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Lions +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Lions +7 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.