NFL Week 6 Top Picks for Patriots vs. Browns, Buccaneers vs. Steelers and Jaguars vs. Colts

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Kenny Pickett #8 of the Pittsburgh Steelers celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the New York Jets. Joe Sargent/Getty Images/AFP.

We have a rematch in the NFL already in Week 6 as Indianapolis and Jacksonville finish off their season series on Sunday. Here’s a look at that as well as Patriots vs. Browns and Bucs vs. Steelers in the early window. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?

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New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

Teams Analysis

New England Patriots

CBS has the telecast of this AFC matchup that could have some Wild Card implications. Could Patriots second-year quarterback Mac Jones get Wally Pipp-ed by rookie Bailey Zappe?

Jones missed New England’s Week 5 game vs. Detroit and Zappe, a fourth-round pick out of Western Kentucky, was quite good in the 29-0 win, completing 17 of 21 for 188 yards, a TD, and pick – good for a rating of 100.0. Meanwhile, Jones is one of the lowest-rated QBs in the NFL at 76.2 with just 2 TDs and 5 picks.

As of this writing, it’s not clear if Jones will be able to play in Cleveland, but it seems unlikely. New England also might be without top running back Damien Harris, who had 4 rushes for 11 yards against the Lions before injuring his hamstring.

Rhamondre Stevenson went off with Harris out, rushing 25 times for 161 yards. New England had a very run-heavy game plan because Zappe was under center. On Zappe's 40 drop-backs this season, he has attempted only 6 tight-window throws (16.7%) and is yet to complete any balls into tight coverage.

Cleveland Browns

Cleveland was a tough-luck 30-28 home loser to the Chargers on Sunday. Browns rookie kicker Cade York missed a 54-yard field goal with 11 seconds left. He missed another field goal try earlier.

Nick Chubb had another monster game with 134 yards and 2 scores on 17 carries and leads the NFL with 593 yards on the ground.

The Browns are 28th in the league in run defense after five games, a ranking much lower than expected from the group after it retained 9 of its 11 starters from last season.

The Pick

This probably will be the most run-heavy game in Week 6. The Under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record. It’s 11-5 in New England’s past 16 away.

NFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Under 42.5 (-110)
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, October 16, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium

Teams Analysis

Pittsburgh Steelers

FOX has the telecast of this potential mismatch. Pittsburgh has never finished with a losing record under Coach Mike Tomlin, but that streak is almost surely ending as the Steelers are 1-4 (should be 0-5) and were absolutely dismantled Sunday in a 38-3 loss in Buffalo.

Despite wind gusts of up to 20 mph, Bills QB Josh Allen's 348 yards passing in the first half were tied for the second most over the opening two quarters in an NFL game since 1991.

It was the Steelers' most lopsided defeat since 1989 when they lost the season opener to the Browns at Three Rivers Stadium, 51-0. Pittsburgh rookie QB Kenny Pickett made his first career NFL start and was solid enough in completing 34 of 52 for 327 yards with a pick.

Pickett's 34 completions were the third-most by a rookie in his first career start since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. The team also lost top tight end Pat Freiermuth to a concussion (he has a history of those so may miss a while) and cornerback Cameron Sutton to a hamstring injury.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay was the beneficiary of an absolutely terrible roughing-the-passer call on Sunday or the Bucs might have lost at home to Atlanta instead of winning 21-15. Tom Brady threw for 351 yards, a TD, and no picks as he improved to 11-0 vs. Atlanta, including one of his seven Super Bowl victories.

Leonard Fournette caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown while rushing 14 times for 56 yards and another score. Brady spread the ball around to eight different pass-catchers, and five of those eight caught at least 4 passes. Future Hall of Fame wideout Julio Jones was inactive for the third time in five games with a knee injury.

The Tampa defense had 5 sacks and ranks third in the NFL with 19. Cornerback Carlton Davis left the game with a hip injury in the second half.

The Pick

Really don’t love this number, but I think the Steelers will at least be competitive at home. Especially offensively, the Bucs haven’t looked all that great yet.

According to the NFL odds, Tampa Bay is 5-15-1 ATS in its past 21 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in its previous game. The Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five at home.

NFL Pick: Steelers +9 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Steelers +9 (-115)
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium

What Happened on Week 2?

CBS has this AFC South matchup. It’s pretty unusual for division rivals to finish their season series this early, but that will be the case here. In Week 2, the Colts were 3-point favorites in Jacksonville but lost 24-0 – Indy hasn’t won at the Jaguars since 2014 and also failed to score against Jacksonville in 2017 and 2018.

Trevor Lawrence threw 2 touchdown passes to Christian Kirk, and the Jaguars sacked Colts QB Matt Ryan 5 times while picking him off 3 times. Reigning NFL rushing champion Jonathan Taylor had just 54 yards rushing.

Teams Analysis

Indianapolis Colts

Will Taylor play this week? He missed Indy’s 12-9 overtime win in Denver on Thursday in Week 5 due to an ankle injury and Coach Frank Reich told reporters he's "optimistic" that Taylor will play in Week 6.

However, Indy almost surely will be without good young pass rusher Kwity Paye after he suffered an ankle spring vs. the Broncos.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Which Lawrence will we see? He was very good in Weeks 2-3 but in the past two weeks, the former No. 1 overall pick 2 touchdown passes and 7 turnovers (one of them an end zone interception in Sunday's 13-6 loss to the Texans) and has led his offense to just 20 points. Most of his mistakes have been unforced.

"He's going to get better," Coach Doug Pederson said. "He's going to get better. I'm not worried about that at all. We have a lot of faith and trust in him and he can definitely do the job. We've seen it this season. We've just got to keep working on it."

The Pick

With Taylor likely back, the Colts should be able to win by at least a field goal. Keep in mind for your NFL picks that Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in its past seven on the road. Indy is 12-3-1 ATS in its past 16 after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.

NFL Pick: Colts -2 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Colts -2 (-108)
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