NFL Week 6 Last Chance Value Picks Featuring Three Valuable Matchups

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Kendrick Bourne #84 and DeVante Parker #1 of the New England Patriots celebrate a touchdown against the Green Bay Packers. Patrick McDermott/Getty Images/AFP.

With Week 6, we head into the “bye section” of the schedule where teams get their week off. This will continue until the first weekend of December except for the week of Thanksgiving.

What does this mean for those of us making NFL picks? Mostly fewer choices, yet at the same time allowing us to dig deeper in select contests where we seek to find the most value on the card.

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New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

It is rather amazing the Cleveland Browns have a 2-3 record heading into Week 6. Or maybe it isn’t as we explain.

Cleveland has entered the fourth quarter of every contest with a lead and exited with only two victories. Though there have been a few instances of the offense or special teams not helping Cleveland’s chances for success, it has been the defense that failed when needed most, permitting 25 points a game which is 24th overall.

New England is 2-3 and their recipe for success is as old as the NFL. Limit your turnovers and force the opposing team to do what you are trying to avoid. In three contests, the Patriots had one turnover and won the turnover battle and they are 2-1 and 2-0-1 ATS, with their only SU setback in overtime.

Trust New England to Finish The Job

New England has lost its share of close games over the years, but Bill Belichick is arguably the best NFL coach of all time and this Patriots team is getting better week by week.

Belichick is 60-30 ATS in October games, which suggests his team starts to figure out what they do best. Off a 29-0 whitewashing of Detroit, Belichick's teams are 25-10 ATS after allowing six points or less and 15-6 ATS in road games after a win by 28 or more points.

NFL Pick: Patriots +2.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Patriots +2.5 (-110)
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field

With last week’s gut-wrenching defeat to Philadelphia, Arizona has lost eight straight home games, making it almost a full year since they sent Cardinals fans home in a good mood.

Conversely, put a road uniform on these same Redbirds and look like the Patriots with Tom Brady in their Super Bowl years. Since the beginning of last season, Arizona is 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) which is the reason they are favored in Seattle.

The Seahawks are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, but at least they are entertaining, thanks to Geno Smith of all people. Other than facing San Francisco, Seattle has been in all their games to the wire winning half of those contests.

Arizona’s Defense Provides the Winning Margin

We don’t know if it's Kliff Kingsbury’s rather monotone delivery or what, but maybe a player should give the pregame speech with Arizona’s lethargic first quarters and sometimes beyond, with dull early showings.

With how loud it is at Lumen Field, chances are the Cards will be more alert and Kyler Murray immediately takes advantage of Seattle’s defense which has allowed 34.5 PPG in the last month.

We give Smith and Seattle players credit for vastly exceeding offensive expectations at 25.4 PPG. However, since facing Patrick Mahomes in the season lid-lifter, the Cardinals' defense had held the next four opponents to just below 20 PPG.

Look for ‘Zona to improve to 11-1 and 10-2 ATS on the road against the NFL odds.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -3 (+100) at Bovada

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Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, October 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos cannot score, putting up 15 PPG after five complete games. Blame Wilson, his teammates, and the coaching staff, no matter who, they collectively are not doing the job.

It does not seem the situation will improve with the news this week that Wilson has a partially torn lat.

After a stumbling start, the Los Angeles Chargers tallied 64 total points in two road wins and returned home trying to keep it going and hang with Kansas City.

The Total Could Be The Way to Go

With the Chargers' average total score of 51.6 total points a game, a total of 45.5 could seem low. Instead, consider the team's crossover numbers on offense and defense.

  • Broncos Points Scored – 15 / Chargers Points Allowed – 27.2 = 42.2
  • Chargers Points Scored – 24.4 / Broncos Points Allowed – 16 = 40.4

The Bolts are 9-1 Over after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, yet in the same time frame, they are 6-0 Under after a win by six or less points. The Broncos enter this divisional battle on a 16-6 Under run. Let’s go low and in a surprisingly defensive contest.

NFL Pick: Under 45.5 (-110) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.