Our Week 6 NFL picks focus on three early matinee games, with the New York Giants looking extra-tasty on the moneyline.
It’s time to celebrate another perfect week of NFL picks here at the home office. Okay, we only had one pick in this space for Week 5, but our models got it right when the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Arizona Cardinals 20-17, cashing in the under on the closing total of 48.5 points.
Extra kudos as well if you took Arizona at +5.5 before the close, even if that particular line was only worth a fun-size bet on the Week 5 NFL odds board. This game went pretty much as expected, with the offenses struggling and the defenses shining.
Will we see more of the same in Week 6? This time, we’ve been given three early-afternoon games to look at, and we’re more than happy to recommend a chunky bet on the first of these matchups. The second isn’t too bad, either, but a “recreational” bet would be prudent for the third.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
As you may have noticed, the Giants (4-1 SU and ATS) have been absolutely crushing it at the pay window. They’ve won three games as the underdog, including last week’s 27-22 victory over the Green Bay Packers in London, which paid a healthy +360 at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review).
Our models like the G-Men again this week, and they’re leaning slightly towards the moneyline, although you can also get good value with New York as 6-point road dogs at GTbets. Other sportsbooks have Big Blue at +4.5 as we go to press.
Baltimore (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) is a dangerous team, mind you. They’re No. 3 on this week’s DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, well ahead of the Giants at No. 19. But the Ravens are struggling to convert that efficiency into cash money. They’ve covered the spread just once in their last four games, and they lost free safety Marcus Williams to a dislocated wrist in last Sunday’s 19-17 nailbiter over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Ah, the Bengals. They managed to cover that loss to Baltimore as 3-point road dogs, but more importantly for our purposes, that game went well below 47.5 points, leaving the Under a perfect 5-0 for Cincy this year.
There’s a good chance they’ll make it six straight. Part of this is the Super Bowl Curse for losing teams, casual bettors think very highly of QB Joe Burrow after the Bengals made that deep playoff run – and for his previous work with the LSU Tigers, for those who also follow college football. But the offensive line in front of Burrow is a mess, and WR Tee Higgins is day-to-day with a sprained ankle.
The Saints' offense should be a mess without QB Jameis Winston (back), too, although they had success last week using some Taysom Hill trickery to beat the Seattle Seahawks 39-32 (Over 45). Our models still like a big bet here, but we’re more inclined to bet smaller, especially now that the Over is 2-0 with Winston on the sidelines.
Note: Winston is officially listed as questionable for Week 6, so there’s a non-zero chance he’ll face Cincinnati. You might want to wait until closer to kick-off for more information and/or a better price.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
This game doesn’t offer the same betting margins as the others, and while the Under is 4-1 for the Niners this year, our models might not be fully accounting for how beat up San Francisco’s defense is after last Sunday’s 37-15 win (over 39.5) versus the Carolina Panthers.
Here’s a partial list of the walking wounded:
- CB Emmanuel Moseley (torn ACL)
- CB Jimmie Ward (broken hand)
- DE Nick Bosa (strained groin)
Ward and Bosa are both considered questionable for Sunday, and Moseley is done for the year. As for the Falcons, they have the over at 3-2, although they are coming off back-to-back under results, including Sunday’s 21-15 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 46.5).
We’re a bit surprised our models don’t like Atlanta (2-3 SU, 5-0 ATS) as 6-point home dogs. Then again, FiveThirtyEight project San Fran to win by 5.5 points, so there you go. Size your bets accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.