NFL Week 5 Picks for AFC Divisional Matchups: Dolphins vs. Jets and Texans vs. Jaguars

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Below we spotlight two AFC divisional showdowns with the Dolphins invading MetLife Stadium to meet the Jets while the Texans travel to Jacksonville to battle the Jaguars. Let’s break it all down and keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

Dolphins Not Only Lost the Game

The Dolphins dropped a 27-15 decision to the Bengals last week but perhaps the biggest consequence of that meeting was the loss of Tua Tagovailoa to a head injury that sent him to the trainer’s table for the remainder of the game.

Tua’s status going forward is uncertain but with head injuries in consecutive games, it’s safe to assume he will not be suiting up this week. Fortunately, the Fish have someone who many would consider the best backup in the game, Teddy Bridgewater.

And last week, after taking over for Tua, Bridgewater proved yet again he is much more of a game manager than a game-changer in passing for 193 yards and a touchdown. Another Achilles heel of Miami’s is the rushing attack which resembles more of a mild affront as neither Raheem Mostert nor Chase Edmonds can get their feet moving in the right direction for very long.

Miami’s lethargic running game could also be due to a lackluster run-blocking unit but the bottom line is that the Dolphins are becoming too one-dimensional and that’s a problem when the man under center is not known for striking early and often through the air.

Jets Win!

The New York Jets have been a laughingstock for several years and any win is big news in Gotham. After four games, the Jets are 2-2 straight up and against the spread while coming off of a 24-20 road victory over the Steelers as three-point road dogs.

The good news is that their rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson, made his long-awaited season debut after sitting the first three games with a meniscus tear he suffered during the preseason. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft was 18-of-36 for 252 passing yards, a touchdown, and 2 interceptions.

Not exactly a Pro Bowl performance but he did catch a two-yard touchdown pass from Braxton Berrios on a gadget play that fooled the Steelers’ defense and put the Jets up 10-0 before Pittsburgh took the lead on four successive scoring plays.

The Jets would regroup and score the last 2 touchdowns of the game, including a Breece Hall two-yard plunge into the end zone with only 16 seconds remaining that clinched the victory.

Dolphins vs. Jets: Pick and Prediction

The Jets have defeated marginal teams and lost to very good teams this year. With wins over the Browns and Steelers but losses to the Ravens and Bengals, we can see where they fit in the NFL pecking order. Now the riddle is to determine where the Dolphins fit in that mosaic and if the Jets are worth a wager as a home dog.

The answer is… no. Teddy Bridgewater has arguably the most dynamic receiving tandem in the league with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If he gets the ball in their direction, the Jets’ secondary will be unable to cover them. This is the key to the game and why our money is on the home chalk here.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 27 – Jets 17

NFL Pick: Dolphins -3 ½ (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Dolphins -3 ½ (-103)
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Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at TIAA Bank Field

Rivalry History Speaks for Itself

The Texans are 0-3-1 entering this Week 5 clash with their AFC South rivals from Jacksonville while the Jaguars are 2-2 and fresh off of a gritty loss to the Eagles in Philadelphia.

Interestingly enough, Jacksonville blew out the same team that defeated the Texans last week, the LA Chargers, and are installed as 7 to 7 ½ point home favorites according to the NFL odds at all of the best sportsbooks.

However, you might be interested, shocked might be the better word, to know that Houston has defeated the Jags in eight consecutive meetings and has gone 6-2 ATS during that time.

Last year the Texans were installed as 3 ½ point home underdogs and defeated the Jags, 37-21, and followed that up with a 30-16 victory three months later as six-point road hounds.

Texans vs. Jaguars: Pick and Prediction

The Jaguars are a team that has shown flashes of brilliance as their young quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, gets acclimated to the faster pace of the NFL and his teammates around him. However, last week was a disaster as the Eagles applied relentless pressure leading to 4 sacks, an interception, and 4 lost fumbles by Lawrence.

I’m not sure Jacksonville is equipped to lay north of a touchdown to any team so we will grab the points and look for another ATS cover in this series by the Texans.

Predicted Score: Jaguars 27 – Texans 23

NFL Pick: Texans +7 ½ (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Texans +7 ½ (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.