NFL Week 5 Parlay at (+260) Features Two Dangerous Underdogs Going for the Upset

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T.J. Hockenson #88 of the Detroit Lions celebrates with Jared Goff #16 after a two-point conversion against the Seattle Seahawks. Nic Antaya/Getty Images/AFP.

Top sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for this week’s action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Lions vs. Patriots and 49ers vs. Panthers.

For reasons that I will explain, you should play the side for both games. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of our best sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.

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Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

Patriots' Quarterback Situation

This game will be decided by the fact that one QB has an easy time scoring while the other doesn't.

New England's quarterback situation is dire given injuries to Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. It looks like Bailey Zappe, a rookie out of Western Kentucky, is going to start.

Jones is still struggling to move; high ankle sprains are notoriously pesky. He is listed as 'questionable' while practicing with heavily taped ankles. Hoyer, the anemic veteran, has been sitting out practices altogether as he struggles to progress through concussion protocols.

Blitzing Lions

Either option, Jones or Zappe, will be strongly vulnerable to Detroit's proclivity to blitz. The Lions have the third-highest blitz rate.

A quarterback having trouble moving like Jones would miss having healthy ankles when he's trying to escape Detroit's pressure.

As for Zappe, he rarely faced pass pressure on drop-backs in college but struggled when he did. His PFF grade under pressure in college was a very poor 55.8, which obviously translates to a poor ability to handle NFL pass pressure.

Can the Lions' Defense Stop the Patriots?

In view of its performance last week, does it matter if Detroit seems to have any kind of defensive advantage on paper such as its tendency to blitz?

Last week, the Lions' defense was obviously terrible as it allowed 48 points. But last week was also the first week in which Detroit had to play without team captain and leader Tracy Walker.

In addition to playing with more cohesiveness as a whole as they acclimate themselves to missing Walker, the Lions benefit from not having to deal with terrific playmakers at wide receiver. New England's options at wide receiver represent a significant downgrade relative to Seattle's.

Recall that Detroit shut down Washington in a first-half blowout before limiting Minnesota's Kirk Cousins to a 93.5 passer rating as supposed Lion-killer star Justin Jefferson couldn't manage more than 14 receiving yards.

In view of these results, the Lions' pass defense seems more than well-equipped to handle a Patriots' pass-catching crew that lacks a legitimate number-one receiver.

Lawrence Guy's Impact

New England defensive tackle Lawrence Guy remains unable to practice after suffering a shoulder injury in Week 3 against Baltimore. While healthy, he effectively took away the middle, stuffing it up with his large presence, while deterring Lamar Jackson from stepping up in the pocket.

After Guy's injury, Baltimore amassed 121 rushing yards on 8.1 YPC while Baltimore's second-half scoring surge (23 points) helped secure its victory. Last week, Green Bay's top two running backs combined for 183 yards on 33 carries.

Accruing the sixth-most rushing yards per game, Detroit's running back group will have a field day, in the process supporting Jared Goff, who is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career according to various stats.

NFL Pick: Lions +3 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 04:05 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

49ers' Offense

Two weeks ago, San Francisco was listed as -3. Now the 49ers are favored by as many as 7 points. This is a significant shift, one that I contend isn't justified.

While the 49ers scored 27 points against the NFL's second-worst defense, they subsequently mustered 10 points in Denver and 17, on offense, against the Rams. This sort of limitation in scoring capacity gravely restricts the 49ers' potential to cover a 7-point spread.

Panthers' Run Defense

Lacking a playmaker at quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo is by all accounts a game manager) the 49ers are relatively inclined to run the ball. Currently, they own the sixth-highest run-play percentage. As a result, San Francisco's scoring output will depend largely on Carolina's ability to stop the run.

The Panthers' run defense looks worse than it is statistically because of its Week 1 contest against Cleveland. Since the season opener, Carolina's run defense has taken shape.

The Panthers held Saquon Barkley to what is by far his worst performance of the season in terms of YPC. Then, they limited star Alvin Kamara to 4.1 YPC. Most recently, Arizona produced a similarly paltry 3.6 YPC.

Carolina's run defense success will place too much pressure on San Francisco's game-manager quarterback to perform.

Christian McCaffrey

On offense, the Panthers will arguably have the best player on the field in superstar Christian McCaffrey.

Even when he isn't running the ball much, as when he eclipsed 100 rushing yards against the Giants and Saints, he is always a major productive threat. Last week, he caught 9 passes for 81 yards.

Led by CMC, the Panthers have always been good for around 20 points, which is more than enough to beat offense-handicapped San Francisco.

NFL Pick: Panthers +7 (-125) at Bovada

NFL Parlay Verdict

With your NFL picks in mind, expect upset wins from Detroit and Carolina. We'll happily take the free points for our parlay.

Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.

NFL Parlay Picks

  • Lions vs. Patriots: Lions +3 (+100)
  • 49ers vs. Panthers: Panthers +7 (-125)

NFL Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+260) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.