NFL Week 5 Last Chance Value Picks Present Two Expected Winners and an Upset

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Kirk Cousins #8 of the Minnesota Vikings passes the ball against the Detroit Lions. Stephen Maturen/Getty Images/AFP.

The top-rated sportsbooks made five home underdogs to start the week. Do any of them appear they could win outright? There are five home favorites of a touchdown or more, should at least one beat the NFL odds? And there are six favorites of 3.5-points or less, which one can cover the number more easily?

We think we have the correct answer to all three of these questions with our Week 5 late-week value picks.

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Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium

Minnesota might be 3-1, yet other than their opening game victory over Green Bay, they have been less than impressive, especially the last two weeks in close wins over Detroit and New Orleans.

The Vikings will wrap up the NFC North home schedule this Sunday with Chicago in town. Minnesota is 20-11 SU at home against the Bears, though, just 14-16 ATS. Does that make them a dicey choice for NFL picks as a touchdown favorite?

Vikings' Defense Against Limited Bears' Offense

The Vikings’ defense has fit into the narrative of the fans from the other three cities in the NFC North – The Vi-Queens are listed 27th in total defense.

Chicago can exploit in one area, having the No. 3 rushing attack of Khalil Herbert and David Montgomery. The problem for the Bears is no passing game. Justin Fields is completing barely 50% of his pass attempts for under 100 yards (not kidding), which is his fault along with faulty protection and receivers who cannot get open.

If Minnesota can slow Chicago's run game, have Kirk Cousins crank up the pass offense, and get Dalvin Cook cooking, it’s the Vikes by 14 or more.

NFL Pick: Vikings -7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Vikings -7 (-108)
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium

The L.A. Chargers turned up the offense in Houston and ran away from Houston 34-24 as 5.5-point favorites. The Bolts had their best day running and passing in H-Town and snapped their two-game losing streak to level their record.

Cleveland is also 2-2 after four weeks and they should be at least 3-1 having a lead in the four quarters in all four of their contests. The Browns are a field goal home underdog and that case can be justified by comparing Justin Herbert vs. Jacoby Brissett. Here is the next question, is that enough?

Looking At the Bigger Picture

Maybe the difference at quarterback will determine the game and maybe not. The Chargers are dead last in the league in rushing at 64.5 yards a game, which places the entire offense on Herbert’s shoulders against Myles Garrett and the Browns’ pass rush.

The Bolts are 15th in rushing yards surrendered but upon closer inspection, they are 32nd in yards per carry given up at 5.4. Cleveland is second in rush attempts and second in yards acquired on the ground, so you know they are not going to give up trying to run with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

This is a good spot for the Browns to not blow another contest.

NFL Pick: Browns +3 (-110) at Heritage Sports

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Browns +3 (-110)
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Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

As former Detroit backup and current ESPN football analyst Dan Orlovsky said, “If the Lions had a bad defense they’d be 3-1”. He might be right. Because the Lions have the worst defense in the league, they are 1-3 and wasting what the highest-scoring offense is doing, which happens to be their teammates.

New England is also 1-3 and though their record is deserved, there were glimpses of hope in taking Green Bay to overtime on the road that the Patriots should improve.

Pats' Game Plan is The Key

While coach Dan Campbell seems like a great guy and super positive, he’s shown he truly understands offense and doesn’t have a clue about defense or how to win tight games.

That’s not the case with Bill Belichick, who doesn’t have a roster full of Super Bowl talent anymore but he still knows how to coach.

Belichick’s elder statesman's coaching role should provide a decided edge against Campbell and his offense for whoever starts at quarterback for the Pats. That would include a power running game that averages 4.5 YPC versus the No. 30 Lions’ run defense.

Juice up the pass rush on Jared Goff and the Patriots win and cover.

NFL Pick: Patriots -3 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Patriots -3 (-108)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.