NFL Week 5 Early Value Picks Include a Trio of Tasty Underdogs

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The average sports bettor doesn’t make a move until gameday, some even waiting until shortly before kickoff to make their NFL picks. But the sharps pounce early and that’s what we intend to do as we scan the NFL odds and exploit the weak early numbers.

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New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 09:30 AM EDT at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Teams Analysis

As you can see, this is an early one and both teams will have to make the trip across the pond. The Giants are coming off of a 20-12 home win over the Bears and now stand at 3-1 straight up and against the spread on the season.

The Packers needed overtime to put the Patriots away in a 27-24 victory but didn’t even come close to sniffing a cover as 10-point home chalk. Aaron Rodgers had a sloppy first half but got his act together as the game wore on and ultimately ended with 251 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Giants vs. Packers: Pick and Prediction

The Packers are 3-1 (2-2 ATS) after four weeks but this is not the offense we’ve come to expect from an Aaron Rodgers-led team. Allen Lazard is doing his best to prove he’s a No. 1 go-to guy but he’s no Davante Adams and to make matters worse, there is no clear No. 2 option, although rookie Romeo Doubs shows promise.

The early line reveals the Packers as 7 ½ point neutral site favorites but I don’t see them being able to cover that number against a gritty Giants squad that should be able to stay within the margins in this one.

Let’s grab the points before this number dips below the magic seven.

Predicted Score: Giants 19 – Packers 23

NFL Pick: Giants +7 ½ (-108) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Giants +7 ½ (-108)
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Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium

Teams Analysis

The Fish have been racked with injuries and Tua Tagovailoa is the biggest one of all. We will assume Teddy Bridgewater will be in the pocket for the Dolphins on Sunday after they dropped a 27-15 decision to the Bengals on Thursday night.

The Jets welcomed their rookie quarterback, Zach Wilson, back from the injured list and he engineered a fourth-quarter rally that saw Gang Green claim a 24-20 win in Pittsburgh.

Wilson’s numbers weren’t pretty, 18-of-36 for 252 yards with one touchdown and a pair of interceptions, but it was a win on the scoreboard and New York finds themselves at 2-2 straight up and against the number entering their Sunday meeting with the Fish.

Dolphins vs. Jets: Pick and Prediction

There is a lot of unpredictability with Miami at this juncture. They have lost their starting quarterback and have plenty of injuries to go around. Conversely, the Jets are a scrappy group that has to feel pretty good about getting the kid back under center and staring at a .500 record after four weeks of play.

The best sportsbooks are all over the place with this game. I am seeing Miami as low as -2 ½ and as high as 5 ½ over at BetOnline. This line will settle but right now we can get the underdog over two key numbers (3 and 4) and to make it even more tempting, they are at home!

I have no idea what lines you will see when you read this but as of this Sunday night writing, we are getting huge value with the Jets over at BOL. Grab the points and back the home hound here.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 – Jets 23

NFL Pick: Jets +5 ½ (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Jets +5 ½ (-108)
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, October 09, 2022 - 08:20 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium

Teams Analysis

The Bengals looked sharp on Thursday night when they handed the Dolphins their first loss of the year courtesy of a 27-15 victory. Joe Burrow had 287 yards and 2 touchdowns, looking more and more like the man they called Joe Cool that took the Cats to the Super Bowl last season.

Baltimore watched a 20-3 lead over Buffalo melt like butter in a blast furnace and dropped a 23-20 decision in front of the fan friendlies. Lamar Jackson wasn’t at his best with 2 critical interceptions while head coach John Harbaugh’s decision to eschew an easy field goal for a not-so-easy touchdown on fourth and goal late in the game proved to be disastrous when his team failed to score.

Bengals vs. Ravens: Pick and Prediction

I think the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite in this one. Yes, I realize it is being played in Baltimore and it is a divisional game. However, these teams look like they are trending in different directions and right now we can get the magical hook on the all-important 3 with the Bengals.

As stated, I don’t think Cincinnati will need even a point because I expect them to win this game outright. But if I am wrong then getting +3 ½ is a bonus because I feel like this line will be dropping to three if not lower. Let’s exploit the early numbers and grab the points with the road pup.

Predicted Score: Bengals 27 – Ravens 24

NFL Pick: Bengals +3 ½ (-119) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Bengals +3 ½ (-119)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.