NFL Week 4 Sunday Night Football Presents Chiefs vs. Buccaneers

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Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in action against the New Orleans Saints. Chris Graythen/Getty Images/AFP.

It’s a potential Super Bowl 57 preview and a rematch of Super Bowl 55 on Sunday night in Week 4 as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Sunday, October 2, 2022 – 08:20 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium 

Sunday night’s matchup from Tampa in Week 4 is potentially the last-ever meeting between former NFL MVPs Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as Brady is widely expected to retire after this season to save his marriage to Gisele Bundchen.

The Chiefs and Bucs could meet in Super Bowl 57, though. Kansas City to beat Tampa Bay on the SB 57 exacta NFL odds at BMR’s top-rated books is +5000 and the Bucs to beat the Chiefs is the same price. 

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers' Previous Encounters

Of course, they did meet in Super Bowl 55 also in Tampa and the Bucs won 31-9, Brady’s seventh ring. TB12 threw for 201 yards and three scores, two to Rob Gronkowski (now retired) and one to Antonio Brown (who knows what that crazy guy is up to right now).

Mahomes wasn’t close to fully healthy and was terrorized all night by an excellent Bucs defense. He didn’t have a TD pass and was picked off twice, finishing with the worst passer rating of his career (52.3).  

The Chiefs also visited the Bucs that 2020 regular season and won 27-24. Mahomes was healthy then and threw for 462 yards and three scores. Brady had 345 yards and three TDs but two picks. 

Tampa Bay is 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings. 

Chiefs With Special Teams Issues 

Kansas City (2-1) comes off its first loss of the season, 20-17 at Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts scored the winning touchdown with 24 seconds left and then sealed it with an interception of Patrick Mahomes with two seconds remaining.

Indianapolis' game-winning drive nearly ended at midfield when linebacker Nick Bolton sacked Indy QB Matt Ryan on third down with just under five minutes left, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on defensive lineman Chris Jones continued the possession. 

"I blame myself. We got off the field after the defense fought hard, and I put us in a situation to go back on the field," Jones said following the game. "I take that one. That was my fault. As a veteran player on this team, I have to be better with those types of things. It won't happen again from me." 

Kickers' Situation

Chiefs kicker Matt Ammendola missed an extra point in the first half and a 34-yard field goal just before Ryan led the winning drive. Ammendola was replacing an injured Harrison Butker.

Not clear if Butker will be able to return this week. He missed only two field goals and three extra points during the entire 2021 campaign. There’s some talk the Chiefs may replace Ammendola this week if Butker isn’t ready. 

Dave Toub's Metrics

Kansas City has maybe the best special teams coach in history in Dave Toub, but those units were awful Sunday. The first punt that rookie wideout Skyy Moore attempted to field was muffed and resulted in a turnover that set the Colts up for their first points.

The second punt kicked his way he failed to field, allowing it to be downed at the one-yard line in the process. By Football Outsiders' special teams metrics, the Chiefs have ranked in the top four in seven of Toub's first nine seasons with the organization

Mahomes threw for 262 yards with a TD and a pick in the loss. Kansas City got nothing going running-wise with just 58 yards on 23 carries. Mahomes was the Chiefs' top rusher with four carries for 26 yards. He and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy got into a heated argument on the sideline at one point.  

It appears Kansas City got out of Week 3 without any major injuries. The Chiefs are 6-13 ATS on NFL picks in their past 19 after an ATS loss.  

Bucs Were Thin At Receiver 

The Bucs played without their top three receivers on Sunday in Pro Bowlers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones and boy did it show as they lost 14-12 at home to Green Bay.

Tom Brady threw for 271 yards and a TD, but the offense really hasn’t been sharp at all this year yet. The Buccaneers are one of two teams without a first-half touchdown.  

Through the first three weeks last season, the Bucs were averaging 30 offensive points per game, converted 41.7% of their third-down attempts and their red zone efficiency was 71.4%.

This year, those numbers are 14.67 offensive points per game, 28.6% third down conversion rate and 40% red zone efficiency.  

Injuries and Returns

Tampa’s three offensive touchdowns through three regular-season games are tied for the fewest of any team Brady been on in a three-game span along with Brady’s 2003 New England Patriots.

Evans will return for this game as he was on a one-game suspension. Sounds like Jones will return as well but not clear yet on Godwin.

Left tackle Donovan Smith also missed the Green Bay game with an elbow injury and his status for this week is TBA. Brady faced a ton of pressure without his blindside protector.  

Defensive Structures

Tampa Bay’s defense has been tremendous so far in allowing just 9.0 points per game. The Bucs also lead the league with eight turnovers forced (five interceptions and three fumble recoveries).

One of the team’s better defensive linemen, Akiem Hicks, didn’t play vs. the Packers because of a torn plantar fascia in his foot and he is not expected to face the Chiefs.  

Sunday will be the sixth all-time meeting between Brady and Mahomes including playoffs. Brady leads 3-2 and is completing 64.7% of his passes in the previous five with 9 TDs and 5 picks. Brady has played the Chiefs 13 times in his career and has an 8-5 record. 

I’m pretty surprised that Tampa Bay is getting 3 points at home, so I’ll happily take them. I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to run the ball whatsoever and the returns of Evans and Jones should boost the Bucs’ offense. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 after a loss.  

Score Prediction: Bucs 24, Chiefs 23 

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay +3 (buy to +3.5) (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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