NFL Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Chargers vs. Texans, Jets vs. Steelers and Seahawks vs. Lions

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The week is still young but we have several early reads after perusing the NFL odds and three games scream value in the early going. Let’s check out these matchups and keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, October 2, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at NRG Stadium

Wounded Chargers

The Chargers welcomed the Jaguars to sunny Southern California last Sunday but their guests took full advantage of their hospitality and rag-dolled them to the tune of a 38-10 blowout.

There were rumors that Justin Herbert might not play due to a rib injury but he was under center when the game began and finished with 297 passing yards, one touchdown, and an interception.

The questions we need to answer are the health of several key pieces to the Chargers’ puzzle. Justin Herbert, wideout Keenan Allen, left tackle Rashawn Slater, center Corey Linsley, cornerback JC Jackson, and linebacker Joey Bosa could all be out for this upcoming game with the Texans.

Even if some of them are sidelined, it’s still a major deficit for the Bolts to overcome.

Chargers vs. Texans: Pick and Prediction

Houston has been competitive in every game thus far and it’s not surprising we have seen this line slip from LA -7 to as low as -5 ½ as of this Tuesday writing.

I believe the Texans are a team on the rise and while I wouldn’t be nearly as optimistic about their chances of facing a healthy Chargers lineup, I think they can hang, bang, and stay within the margins given the six-point head start being offered at Heritage.

Predicted Score: Chargers 24 - Texans 20

NFL Pick: Texans +6 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Texans +6 (-108)
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New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, October 2, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium

Coming Off a Losing Week 3

Unlike in Week 2 when the Jets mounted a furious rally and came away with an improbable 31-30 win over the Browns, their offense was stuck in neutral against the Bengals last week.

As a result, Cincinnati claimed a no-sweat 27-12 victory over the Jets and now New York must travel to Pittsburgh to try to even up their record.

The Steelers dropped a 29-17 decision to the Browns on Thursday night and enter Week 4 with a 1-2 straight-up record and are 1-1-1 against the number in those three contests.

Mitch Trubisky continues to play like a placeholder for the heir-apparent, Kenny Pickett, and had just 207 passing yards with a one-yard plunge into the end zone in the loss to Cleveland.

Jets vs. Steelers: Pick and Prediction

This is the prototypical “meh” NFL game. Neither team does much to excite and there would have to be a miraculous turn of events if either squad will sniff the postseason. But for our purposes, we can still make money regardless of the quality of the competition.

The problem with the Steelers is that they don’t do anything particularly well. When T.J. Watt got injured, it changed the entire dynamic of the defense and that’s good news for a pass-happy quarterback like Joe Flacco. The Jet’s offense is geared exclusively to Flacco’s penchant for putting it up and seeing what happens.

At the very least the Jets are taking shots versus the plodding, measured, and tedious pace at which Pittsburgh’s offense moves. As long as we are getting north of three points, I will hold my nose and take the Jets in this spot.

Predicted Score: Steelers 20 - Jets 17

NFL Pick: Jets +3 ½ (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Jets +3 ½ (-110)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, October 2, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Surprising Lions

The Lions are one of those moribund franchises that seem to justify their reputation as one of the dregs of the league every year. But this year, there is at least a spark of something different, grittier, and better. Although they are below .500 on the season, Detroit is 3-0 against the spread and the bettors are taking notice.

Detroit’s offense seems to be clicking, averaging 31.7 points per game which makes them the No. 2 ranked offense in the league. D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are proving to be a dynamic one-two punch in the backfield.

While that PPG average is likely to decrease, it is still notable that we are discussing the Lions as one of the league’s best offenses after three weeks. Not a huge sample size but a welcome indication that the Lions' prospects are looking up.

Seahawks vs. Lions: Pick and Prediction

Although the Lions have been cashing at the windows, the best sportsbooks eventually adjust their lines until the masses swing and miss on a cash cow. This could be the case this week as the Seahawks' offense looked better than it has this year in their 27-23 loss to the Falcons.

But more to the point, the line on this game seems a bit too long for a team like the Lions. They are in an unfamiliar role as a favorite and add to that they are laying 6 ½ points.

Is this a team you want to back laying that much? Not me, I’ll grab what looks like value with the Seahawks in this one.

Predicted Score: Lions 27 - Seahawks 23

NFL Pick: Seahawks +6 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Seahawks +6 ½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.