NFL Week 4 Last Chance Value Picks Feature the Cowboys, Cardinals and Raiders

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Cooper Rush #10 of the Dallas Cowboys calls out the play against the New York Giants. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP.

The National Football League should be very happy, they have the kind of parity they always strive for. There are only two undefeated teams (Miami and Philadelphia) and one that is winless (Las Vegas) after just three weeks.

In terms of competition, there have been 18 contests out of 48 (37.5%) that have ended the point differential at three points or fewer, the most ever after three weeks.

While letting all that sink in, you can review three NFL picks that should offer value.

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Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at AT&T Stadium

If it were not for overreaction in sports, Twitter and sports talk radio would be half their size. Case in point, the Dallas Cowboys after losing Dak Prescott. Granted, the Cowboys have not fared well when Prescott is in street clothes in the past.

Still, noted non-expert Stephan A. Smith chimed in that Dallas was “done” for 2022. Well lookie here, the Cowboys are far from done having won twice with Cooper Rush under center to move to 2-1.

The Dallas run defense can be had (23rd) but good luck trying to throw against them, as they are 4th in pass yards allowed. The Cowboys are No. 1 sacks with 13 and they are facing Washington, who allows the most sacks (15).

Cowboys Better Than Commanders in So Many Ways

Besides the fact that Carson Wentz hangs onto the ball too long, the Washington offensive line is not good at pass blocking and the Dallas defenders have to be drooling just thinking about this matchup.

Presently, Cowboys QB Rush is making better decisions than Wentz, and overall, he has a better supporting cast.

With the NFL odds favoring Dallas at -3.5, this favors Jerry’s kids who are on a 15-6 ATS run and 7-0 ATS vs. division foes.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -3.5 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Cowboys -3.5 (+100)
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Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 04:05 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium

In this NFC clash, something has to give. Arizona and Carolina are both 1-2 to start the season, which means one club will feel good about being .500 and the other has a hole to fill just to reach that same level.

Each team arrives in Charlotte averaging 20.7 points a game, with the Panthers the superior team in points conceded at 19.7 PPG and the Cardinals at a revolting 29 PPG. But here is the most fascinating aspect.

What Streak Continues and Which One Ends?

With last year’s 34-10 thumping in the desert a year by Carolina as a seven-point road underdog, the Panthers are 6-0 SU and ATS against Arizona since 2015, which includes two playoff matchups.

According to the top-rated sportsbooks, the Cardinals come into this encounter as 1.5-point away pooches, and the last seven times the Redbirds are in this exact role, they are 7-0 SU and ATS

We’ll side with the visiting Cards to fly back to 'Zona a winner thanks to Kyler Murray.

NFL Pick: Cardinals +1.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
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Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, October 02, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium

The Las Vegas Raiders are the lone winless squad in the NFL at 0-3. Over the past 20 seasons, only one team out of 98, the 2018 Houston Texans, overcame a 0-3 start and made the playoffs. 

To paraphrase in the immortal words of Jim Carrey in the movie “Dumb and Dumber”, the Raiders are saying “so you're telling me there is a chance.”

The Las Vegas losses were by 13 total points, and six came in OT on a scoop and scored by Arizona. The Raiders have fit the mold of legendary wordsmith Yogi Berra, who described teams like this from his baseball days as a player, coach, or manager as “playing good enough to lose.”

Let’s Not Lose Sight of Who Denver Is

Broncos fans were ecstatic beyond belief when they traded for Russell Wilson, believing this would have Peyton Manning 2.0. Well, be careful what you wish for as Wilson is leading an offense that is averaging 14.3 points a game, which is next to last in the NFL.

If the Raiders don’t come out with the fire, fury, and desperation of an 0-3 team, one can wonder if they made another bad coaching hire. Look for Da Raiders to find a way over a faulty Denver crew.

NFL Pick: Raiders -2.5 (-115) at Bovada

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Raiders -2.5 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.