NFL Week 4 Early Value Picks Include Three Dangerous Underdogs

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Pouncing on what can be perceived as weak numbers very early in the week is the mark of a sharpshooter and that’s exactly what we are going to do this Monday morning. Let’s check out the NFL odds and get the best prices on the board.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, October 2, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field

Teams Analysis

There was plenty of preseason buzz surrounding the Eagles and even the best sportsbooks picked up on it as the odds on Philadelphia to win the division, NFC, and Super Bowl began to drop as the summer grew long.

And the rumors surrounding the evolution of Jalen Hurts taking the proverbial “next step” have proven to be true as Hurts has flashed even more mobility than he did in college and his passing accuracy has improved exponentially.

What I just told you is not a secret and the public has seen it manifest through Philadelphia’s three victories heading into this Week 4 matchup with Jacksonville.

Jaguars vs. Eagles: Pick and Prediction

The Jags have improved as well and I believe the touchdown head start we are getting in the early going is a gift, especially knowing the Eagles will have to fly across the country to meet the Cardinals in the desert next week.

The Eagles win this one but the Jags keep it within the margins.

Predicted Score: Jaguars 27 - Eagles 32

NFL Pick: Jaguars +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Jaguars +7 (-108)
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Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, October 2, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at M&T Bank Stadium

Teams Analysis

The Bills were shocked last week when they dropped a 21-19 decision to the Dolphins in South Beach. Although Buffalo was only installed as a four-point road favorite, they were viewed as unbeatable after throttling the Rams and Titans, the former being the reigning Super Bowl champions while the latter is coming off of a 12-5 season and AFC South winners.

But the Dolphins are the early giant-slayers this year and the Bills were their biggest kill thus far. And that is precisely why the public will be on Buffalo to atone for their pedestrian performance and the Ravens just happen to be in the unfortunate position as their next victim…er…. opponent.

But Baltimore is a dangerous team and Lamar Jackson is an early MVP candidate. After their collapse against the Dolphins, the Ravens rebounded with a solid win in Foxboro over the Patriots. Now the Ravens get to fly home and wait for the Bills to try to beat them in front of their rabid fanbase.

Bills vs. Ravens: Pick and Prediction

The public narrative is that the Bills will be foaming at the mouth to prove last week was just a fluke and the oddsmakers are playing into this narrative by pumping the line on this, waiting for the masses to lay it on the road chalk here.

This line has already fallen from Bills -4 to -3 at most of the best online sportsbooks but Bovada is still allowing us to grab +4 and we will do it without hesitating. Grab the points with the home hound in this one for your NFL picks.

Predicted Score: Bills 31 - Ravens 30

NFL Pick: Ravens +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Ravens +4 (-110)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, October 2, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

Teams Analysis

The Lions are getting plenty of love this season, a stark departure from seasons past. And although they are only 1-2 straight up, the betting public is smitten by their 3-0 ATS record.

It is indeed a grittier, nastier bunch than we’ve seen coming out of Motown in recent years but sometimes the public can get carried away with their adoration of money-making squads.

And this appears to be just such the case as the Lions are favored by as much as 6 ½ at some shops and I think that’s a bit steep even against the stumbling Seattle Seahawks. As you may know, Seattle bowed, 27-23, to the Falcons but their offense showed some semblance of coalescing after three weeks of live action.

I’m not sure when the last time the Lions were laying north of six points but it occurs about as often as a lunar eclipse. Actually, I can recall several lunar eclipses but still can’t remember when the Lions were giving another team close to a touchdown head start.

Seahawks vs. Lions: Pick and Prediction

Well, this is what we have in Week 4 even though Detroit is coming off a 28-24 loss to the Vikings in Minnesota.

Of course, the Lions cashed as six-point road dogs and now they fly home where they are 6 ½ point favorites. So, this means the somewhat middling Vikings are at least 12 ½ points better than the Seahawks? Seems a bit much, right?

Well, you might not see this number later on in the week so if we are betting for sheer value, then this should be on your list. Grab the six and a hook on the Hawks and watch them stay within the margins.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 21 - Lions 26

NFL Pick: Seahawks +6 ½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Seahawks +6 ½ (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.