NFL Week 3 Top Picks: Texans vs. Bears, Jaguars vs. Chargers and Falcons vs. Seahawks

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Below we will review three games and hope to hit a trifecta as we analyze the Texans/Bears, Jaguars/Chargers, and Falcons/Seahawks matchups.

Let’s make it a Sunday sweep in our NFL picks!

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Houston Texans vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Soldier Field

Week 1 and 2 Recap

The Texans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Week 1 when they watch a 17-point fourth-quarter lead disappear and allowed the Colts to rally in what resulted in a 20-20 tie.

The news wasn’t all bad as the NFL odds had Houston as high as a 7 ½ point home underdog and Houston backers easily covered the number.

Last week, Houston could only muster 3 field goals in a sloppy 16-9 loss to the Denver Broncos at Mile High.

Although this Texans edition doesn’t appear to be much better than the previous iterations in recent memory, they do seem to be a bit grittier on defense. Yes, the Bears beat the 49ers but those monsoon-like conditions made that a deceiving victory.

Texans vs. Bears: Pick and Prediction

We can still get Houston +3 at GTBets (visit our GTBets Review) while everywhere else the line has fallen to 2 ½ which means the sharps appear to be betting the Texans, at least in the early going.

Scoring Prediction: Bears 17 - Texans 16

NFL Pick: Texans +3 (-109) at GTBets

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Texans +3 (-109)
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 4:05 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Jaguars and Chargers Analysis

I’m not sure if the Jaguars are better this year or the Colts are really, really bad but their 24-0 shutout over Indianapolis certainly made heads spin. Jacksonville’s defense seems to have come around this season, perhaps even evolved under Doug Pederson’s newly installed coaching regime.

In their 28-22 loss to the Commanders in the opening week of play, they picked Carson Wentz off twice and only melted in the final quarter when they allowed 2 touchdowns to lose the lead for good.

Trevor Lawrence is getting better protection, and the second-year man appears to have the requisite skillset to be a real force in this league.

I realize the Chargers are an upper-echelon team but I also believe the only reason the Jags are getting a touchdown head start is because the masses will have no problem betting the chalky home favorite and laying more than they should.

Jaguars vs. Chargers: Pick and Prediction

This will be more of a defensive battle than many believe, which is another reason why I like the +7 we are getting on the Jags at top-rated sportsbooks. The Bolts scored exactly 24 points in their loss to the Chiefs and their victory over the Raiders.

I believe the Jags will keep them at that number or below while Trevor Lawrence will be able to marshal his troops and keep this one within the margins.

Scoring Prediction: Chargers 23 - Jaguars 17

NFL Pick: Jaguars +7 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Jaguars +7 (-108)
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 04:25 PM EDT at Lumen Field

Atlanta and Seattle Analysis

The Falcons gave the Rams all they could handle in the final quarter of last week’s game when they roared back from a 21-point deficit in the fourth quarter to score 17 unanswered points.

Ultimately it was not enough to win but they did cover the number for all of those who bet the Dirty Birds +10 ½ on the road against the defending Super Bowl champs.

This game came a week after the Falcons watched their own 16-point fourth-quarter lead melt like butter in a blast furnace when the Saints rallied to claim a 27-26 win in Atlanta. After two games, the Falcons are 0-2 straight up but 2-0 against the spread.

The Seahawks eked out a home win over the Broncos, 17-16, in the opening week and then hit the road to San Francisco where the 49ers hit them right back and sent them packing with a 27-7 loss on their season slate.

Falcons vs. Seahawks: Pick and Prediction

The Falcons’ offense seems to have a much better grasp of itself than Seattle’s offensive unit. I don’t have any faith in Geno Smith making it through the season as the starter and feel the Falcons can get to him this week.

Conversely, Marcus Mariota has got the wheels to cause the Seattle defense fits and wideout Drake London, Atlanta’s first-round pick out of USC, has seamlessly assimilated into this offense and has already proven to be a reliable weapon in the Falcons’ offensive arsenal.

As you may have figured out, I am on Atlanta in this one and there are a few trends working in the Falcons' favor and against the Seahawks in this one.

  • Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Falcons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road game
  • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Scoring Prediction: Falcons 23 - Seahawks 19

NFL Pick: Falcons +2 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.