NFL Week 3 Early Value Picks Include the Chiefs and the 49ers

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The start of this NFL season might be comparable to others for long-time sports bettors, but nobody we have come across can remember one quite like it. It has been like the NBA, where no substantial lead is safe.

We’ve surveyed the NFL odds and here is what we have found, keep in mind, value means different things to different bettors.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lucas Oil Stadium

Though there are other 0-2 teams with a worse record, arguably, nobody has looked more awful than the Indianapolis Colts who are 0-1-1.

Indianapolis has played seven quarters of just horrific football and it’s not like they have faced the hierarchy of the NFL in Houston and Jacksonville. Matt Ryan looks like he’s aged 10 years since he left Atlanta.

Between receivers who cannot get open, an offensive line that is not pass blocking and the 37-year-old Ryan hanging on to the ball too long, except for the 17 points at Houston in the 4th quarter of Week 1, the Colts have 3 points in 7 quarters and 1 overtime.

Why The Colts Offer No Betting Value

Two quarters after Indy was shutout by Jacksonville, the opening line of this AFC encounter had jumped from Kansas City -3 to -6.5.

While we can expect Indianapolis to be desperate playing in their home opener, what has anyone seen as a reason for hope for the Colts?

Coach Frank Reich is not getting through to his emotionless squad and a rested Kansas City should see a real opportunity to start fast and take the game to Indy.

NFL Pick: Kansas City -6.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Kansas City -6.5 (-110)
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Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 01:00 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium

The entire preseason, everyone connected to the NFL has talked about Bill Belichick not hiring an offensive or defensive coordinator for this season. On the defense part, nobody was too worried about it since Belichick himself is the de facto DC anyway.

The offense was a different story since you are working with a second-year quarterback in Mac Jones and he will need guidance along the way, especially using a somewhat different scheme in 2022 compared to last year.

For the most part, those fears have come true as the Patriots have tallied just 24 total points. Granted, playing on the road has not helped, yet, watching New England play it seems deeper than a home/away issue.

Why The Betting Value Is on the Under

Baltimore’s secondary is again banged up and Miami proved in hanging 42 points on the Ravens including 28 in the final quarter.

Expect coach John Harbaugh to clean this up and know this: When an NFL team allowed 35 or more points in their last contest, facing an opponent that scored 17 points or fewer in two straight games, the UNDER is 24-5 since 2018.

NFL Pick: Ravens/Patriots Under 44 (-107) at BetOnline

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Ravens/Patriots Under 44 (-107)
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday, September 25, 2022 - 08:20 PM EDT at Empower Field

Denver came from behind to knock off Houston for their first win of the season. Like Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson is another veteran quarterback who is having a hard time getting settled in his new location.

Wilson had a bad first half against the Texans, missing easy throws, not keeping track of the play clock, and having teammates not helping him one bit.

The biggest concern is Denver’s failures inside the opposing team's 10-yard line, as for a second straight week, they could not punch the ball into the end zone.

Though Wilson deserves his share of the blame, new head coach Nathaniel Hackett has Broncos fans wanting Vic Fangio to return. Between genuine errors in judgment and strange play-calling deep in the red zone, Denver is far from settled.

Why San Francisco Offers More Betting Value

Top-rated sportsbooks have lowered their betting odds on San Francisco from +3 to +2.5 initially and now to a Pick on Monday morning.

The 49ers have a proven commodity in Jimmy Garoppolo and now there is no quarterback controversy in the Bay Area with Trey Lance gone for the season.

The Niners are significantly better than either Seattle or Houston and should take this one. 

NFL Pick: San Francisco ML (-110) at BetOnline

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San Francisco ML (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.