The Philadelphia Eagles are the right Week 2 NFL pick for Monday Night Football – but what about that Titans-Bills matchup?
I’d say that was a successful Week 1 of NFL betting here at the ranch. Our delightful new analytic models absolutely nailed it – aside from that Kansas City-Arizona matchup, but you can’t win ‘em all.
Let’s dive right into Week 2, shall we? There’s a double-header coming up on Monday Night Football, and for our NFL picks, we’re going to pick a straight bet (point spread, moneyline, or total) for each contest – plus we’ll throw in exact score predictions for good measure. Our models can handle those, too.
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, September 19, 2022 – 07:15 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
This wasn’t one of our official Week 1 NFL picks for this site, but the computers loved the new-look New York Giants both against the spread (where they closed at +5) and on the moneyline (+200).
And so it came to pass. the G-Men beat Tennessee 21-20 on a gutsy and entirely correct decision by head coach Brian Daboll to go for a 2-point conversion rather than settle things in overtime. Lord knows what kind of pain Daboll’s former team is about to inflict on the Titans.
Well, the computers have an idea: They like Buffalo to win by just a shade under 10 points. Specifically, they’re saying (and I’m rounding up and down here as required) that it will be Buffalo 29, Tennessee 19.
Go figure, the Titans quickly moved up from 7-point road dogs to +9.5 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) in early betting, and as high as +10 at certain other locations. They might still be worth a fun-size bet at +10, but the models much prefer Under 49.5, even though that’s also down from 51.5 at the open.
Will It Rain in Buffalo?
I’m with the models on this one. The Bills are coming off a 31-10 thumping of the defending champion Los Angeles Rams (Under 51.5), where their defense held Los Angeles to 243 total yards.
Okay, the Rams' offense isn’t what it was last year, but it should still be better than Tennessee’s. There’s also a non-zero chance this game will get soggy.
The long-range forecast calls for rain over Orchard Park, starting around 3 PM and clearing up around 8 PM. Add some 15-mph crosswinds, and you’ve got the recipe for an under.
Titans vs. Bills: Our Betting Pick
That 29-19 prediction needs some tweaking, though. This is where the computers fail somewhat.
Scoring isn’t a smooth curve in the NFL, and according to Scorigami, only five games in league history have ended in that exact result.
So let’s make it 27-20 instead (121 games) and call it a day.
Score Prediction: Titans 20, Bills 27
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Monday, September 19, 2022 – 08:30 PM EDT at Lincoln Financial Field
Here’s another team our models got right: The Vikings beat the visiting Green Bay Packers 23-7 to cash in at -1.5 on the point spread and -130 on the moneyline. This was after flipping from underdogs to favorites in response to a late surge of both sharp and public money.
They’re not the right NFL pick for Week 2, though. Instead, the computers like the Eagles as 1.5-point home faves, and they like them enough to make it a proper one-unit wager. This is after the sharps jumped on Minnesota at the open and drove them down from +2.5. The consensus reports at BMR still show 79% support for the Vikings as we go to press.
Just to sweeten the pot a little more, the fine folks at Bookmaker (visit our BookMaker Review) have Philadelphia priced at -1 (-111). We obviously don’t mind paying that extra cent in vigorish to shave off that half-point in what looks like a close contest on paper.
Is Jalen Hurts the Right Quarterback for the Eagles?
We also don’t mind taking the Eagles for a spin after they beat the Detroit Lions 38-35 as 5.5-point road faves. Yes, they took their foot off the gas and let the Lions score 14 unanswered fourth-quarter points to secure the matador cover. But hey, they scored 38 points themselves.
If there were any qualms (and there were) about Jalen Hurts taking over as Philly’s quarterback, the nay-sayers have been silenced somewhat. Hurts connected 10 times with his new No. 1 wideout, A.J. Brown, and Hurts also rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. No picks, no fumbles, no problem.
As it happens, Hurts didn’t throw a TD pass either, so there are still going to be some Debbie Downers out there – which only improves Philadelphia’s betting value on the odds boards.
Vikings vs. Eagles: Our Betting Pick
Let’s wrap this up before I go on another rant about how the betting public still undervalues certain dual-threat quarterbacks based on... well, you know.
Score Prediction: Vikings 24, Eagles 27
NFL Pick: Eagles -1 (-111) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.