NFL Week 17 TNF Best Bets Player Props: Dak Prescott Set Up to Dominate

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Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys looks on against the Philadelphia Eagles. Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images/AFP.

NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-135) at Bovada

The final Thursday night game of the NFL’s 2022 season puts the Dallas Cowboys (11-4) against the Tennessee Titans (7-8). The Titans are going to be without many key starters, making for what should be an easy night for Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott to shine.

The Titans have lost five games in a row and will be without quarterback Ryan Tannehill and most of the starting defense. Running back Derrick Henry is also listed as doubtful, which means he is unlikely to play on a short week.

As you might expect, the Cowboys are a 12-point road favorite with a total of 40 points at many of the Texas betting sites. We have some NFL player prop picks for this final Thursday game.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tennessee Titans

Thursday, December 29, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

Quarterback Props

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Over 235.5 Passing Yards
  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

After another pick-six early in the game against the Eagles, it would not be surprising to see Dak Prescott continue to struggle. Instead, he rallied to throw for 347 yards and three touchdowns in leading the Cowboys to 40 points in a big win over the Eagles.

Prescott became just the third quarterback to convert a third-and-30 pass since 1994 and the first to do it in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

According to Next Gen Stats, Prescott completed all 24 of his passes against zone coverage for 300 yards and all of his touchdowns, the best game against zone by any quarterback in the last five seasons.

Dream Matchup

Prescott draws a dream matchup here against a Tennessee defense that has been struggling and now will not have most starters active as the team eyes Week 18 against Jacksonville as the more important game.

The Cowboys likely are going to end up with the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but it is too early to be resting starters already. They are going to play Prescott.

Prescott has passed for 250 yards in 7-of-8 games coming into this one, so hitting the over is only limited by how competitive the Titans are.

If it’s a blowout early, then Prescott may not need to throw or even play in the second half. But he also has the capability of throwing for a lot of yards in a hurry, so he could still hit this over in two or three quarters if necessary.

Prescott has also thrown for multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8 games coming in. We think that one is more likely to hit than the yardage, both for game script reasons and the fact that Tennessee has allowed 26 passing touchdowns on defense. But we would play both overs for Dak in this one.

NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 235.5 Passing Yards (-135) at Bovada

NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125) at Bovada

Malik Willis (Tennessee Titans)

  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted

Philadelphia’s backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew, threw for 355 yards against the Cowboys last week, but don’t expect anything even remotely close to that for Malik Willis in his fourth start as a rookie.

In fact, Willis has passed for 234 yards in his first three starts combined this year. He is the first quarterback since Nathan Peterman and only the third since 1950 to throw for fewer than 100 yards in each of his first three starts (min. 10 pass attempts each game).

Willis will not throw it much, but without Derrick Henry likely to play, he may have to do a bit more than usual. He also will be playing from behind with the way Dallas scores, so look for the mistakes to come against an opportunistic, pressured defense.

Willis does not throw much but he has been intercepted in two of his three starts. Look for him to get picked here, and if you can find a sportsbook that will offer a line on his passing yards, there may be no under that is too low in this matchup.

NFL Prop Pick: Malik Willis Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-225) at Bovada

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Running Back Props

Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Tony Pollard has not practiced this week with a thigh injury and is questionable. It is more than possible he sits this one out even though he needs just 12 more yards to hit 1,000 rushing yards for the season.

But Ezekiel Elliott is more than capable of picking up the slack here. Zeke has also found the end zone in eight straight games, so it is hard to not like his chances to find it again in this matchup given the lack of defensive talent the Titans are going to put on the field.

You could even get frisky and play Zeke to score a touchdown in the first half for better odds (+150).

NFL Prop Pick: Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-157) at Bovada

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Ezekiel Elliott Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-157)
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Receiver Props

CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

Lamb is on a hot streak after having his second game this season with at least 10 catches, 120 yards, and two touchdowns.

He probably won’t hit those numbers again in this one, but he just has to get 72 yards for his over. He has hit that mark in 8-of-15 games this year, and he has gone over 100 yards in consecutive weeks.

Even with their starting defense mostly intact, the Titans have allowed the third-most receiving yards (2,846) to wide receivers this year. For your NFL picks, look for another big game by Lamb against this vulnerable secondary.

NFL Prop Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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CeeDee Lamb Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Michael Gallup (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Over 2.5 Receptions

In his return from injury, Gallup is having his least productive season yet in Dallas with 31.3 yards per game and 5.9 yards per target (both are career lows).

But Gallup has had some timely catches and caught a touchdown to help beat the Eagles last week. He has gone over 2.5 receptions in 7-of-12 games this season.

Only the Vikings have allowed more receptions to wide receivers than the Titans (215) this year, and the Titans are going to be without multiple starters in the secondary, including corner Kristian Fulton and safety Amani Hooker.

It should be a field day for the Dallas wide receivers.

NFL Prop Pick: Michael Gallup Over 2.5 Receptions (-120) at Bovada

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Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys)

  • Under 38.5 Receiving Yards

It may sound counterproductive to bet Prescott’s over in passing yards and Schultz’s under, but you could get better NFL odds on a parlay with that correlated play at many sportsbooks.

There is also the fact that Prescott has routinely been throwing for 250-plus yards with Schultz finishing under 40 yards the last two months. Schultz has gone under 38.5 yards in four of the last six games.

Schultz has gone over 22 receiving yards in just one road game this year. Seven of his top eight receiving games have been at home.

The Titans can get so much out of Elliott, Lamb, and Gallup, that a big game from Schultz is just not necessary against this Tennessee defense. Don’t forget Noah Brown too. We’ll take the under.

NFL Prop Pick: Dalton Schultz Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.