NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football Best Bets Player Props: Too Much Defense for Geno?

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Geno Smith #7 of the Seattle Seahawks gets rid of the ball under pressure from Frankie Luvu #49 of the Carolina Panthers. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP.

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Geno Smith Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
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NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-165) at Bovada

NFL Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-150) at Bovada

The San Francisco 49ers (9-4) can sweep the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) to claim the NFC West title this Thursday evening. The teams met back in Week 2 when they looked quite different, and the 49ers used their top-ranked defense to win 27-7. Seattle’s only score came on a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown as Geno Smith was unable to get the offense on the board.

Much has changed since Week 2. The 49ers have gone from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy at quarterback, though Purdy is questionable to play with a rib/oblique injury.

They also have Christian McCaffrey in town, but Deebo Samuel (ankle/MCL) is going to miss this game after getting injured on Sunday. The Seahawks are hoping to get running back Kenneth Walker, once a favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, back.

The 49ers are a 3-point road favorite in a game with a total of 43 points at many of the California betting sites. We have some NFL player prop picks for this important matchup.

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Thursday, December 15, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Lumen Field

Quarterback Props

Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Over 33.5 Pass Attempts
  • Over 20.5 Pass Completions
  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted

When these teams met in Week 2, no one imagined Geno Smith would go on to have such a great season where he is still leading the league in completion percentage (71.5%) and is the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year.

While the Seattle offense was held scoreless that day, Smith was 24-of-30 for 197 yards and an interception. It did not help that backup running back DeeJay Dallas threw a red-zone interception on a trick play, or that both Seattle drives at the end of each half ran out of time in San Francisco territory. That helps explain how the offense could score zero points on a day when Smith completed 80% of his passes.

Smith became the first quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 64% of his passes in each of the first 12 games of a season. However, the Panthers held him to 58.3% on Sunday. It was also the first game since October 2014 where Smith threw multiple interceptions, and he was inches away from a third pick in the fourth quarter.

We know the 49ers just intercepted Tom Brady twice last week, Geno once in Week 2, and have generally been a terror on defense this season. We like Geno to throw another pick in this game as he is going to have to carry the offense as the 49ers rank No. 1 against the run.

The 49ers already held the Seahawks to a season-low 36 rushing yards in Week 2. With the offense clicking and the Seahawks struggling on defense, look for a game script where Geno has to carry the offense again as he has the last month with Seattle’s running game disappearing.

That means plenty of pass attempts, and since he generally completes such a high rate of passes, he should go over 20.5 completions too. He has gone over 20.5 completions in 10-of-13 games.

We are a little iffy on the yards since the 49ers held Geno under 200 last time, but the overs on attempts, completions, and interceptions should be enough Geno props to hit in this one for your NFL picks.

Running Back Props

Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers)

  • Over 79.5 Rushing Yards
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer

McCaffrey was in Carolina when these teams met in Week 2. He is coming off his best game of the season with 119 rushing yards, 34 receiving yards, and two touchdowns against Tampa Bay.

Now CMC gets a Seattle run defense that is 31st in yards and 28th in yards per carry allowed. In Week 2, Jeff Wilson had 18 carries for 84 yards but fullback Kyle Juszczyk stole the short touchdown from him. With Deebo Samuel out, Wilson in Miami, and Purdy not 100% at quarterback, this has to be another big McCaffrey week.

He should be able to rush for over 80 yards and find the end zone either on the ground or through the air as he is still an elite receiver.

The Seahawks had a couple weeks where it looked like they turned it around on run defense, but as it turns out, the Chargers just stink at running the ball and Saquon Barkley isn’t 100% for the Giants. The Seahawks have allowed over 120 rushing yards in 10 games this year, including seven games over 160 yards.

You want to make sure you have plenty of McCaffrey in this one.

NFL Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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NFL Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-152) at Bovada

Receiver Props

George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers)

  • Over 38.5 Receiving Yards

With Deebo Samuel out, Brandon Aiyuk becomes the best wide receiver on the 49ers, but that doesn’t necessarily make him the best weapon in this game. He caught a touchdown from Purdy on Sunday, but Aiyuk is generally seen as the receiver who has great chemistry with Jimmy Garoppolo.

George Kittle is a beast the 49ers need to remember they can unleash when they want to. He did not play in the Week 2 matchup with Seattle, but the last time he played them last year, he had 181 yards and the first game in his career with two touchdown catches.

The last time Kittle played an NFC West rival, he also had two touchdowns in Mexico City against Arizona in Week 11. Kittle also had 84 yards that night, and he has 76 yards in the three games since.

But with Samuel out, this is an excellent opportunity for Kittle to get involved again and he only needs 39 yards to hit his over.

NFL Pick: George Kittle Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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George Kittle Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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DK Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Under 64.5 Receiving Yards

Metcalf is starting to score touchdowns again with four scores in his last six games, and he has gone over 70 yards in his last four games as well. But his last four games against the 49ers have been less than desirable as Metcalf has been held to 21, 65, 60, and 35 yards in those games.

He had 35 yards in Week 2 when he caught four balls from Geno Smith. It was actually Tyler Lockett who went off and had over 100 yards for the first time in 14 career meetings with the 49ers.

Metcalf is a good receiver, but he has been held under 65 yards in seven games this season. Following the NFL odds, let’s trust the 49ers to hold him under again just as the Cardinals have twice held him under 40 yards this year.

NFL Prop Pick: DK Metcalf Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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DK Metcalf Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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Marquise Goodwin (Seattle Seahawks)

  • Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

The veteran still has some speed at 32 and has emerged as a decent No. 3 option in Seattle’s passing game. He had 95 yards and a touchdown against Carolina on Sunday. He has gone over 27.5 yards in 5 of 6 games coming into this one.

Goodwin did not have a catch in Week 2 against the 49ers, but the same thing happened in Week 4 in Detroit despite the game ending 48-45. He was just getting used to Geno Smith and the offense after playing for the Bears last year. Goodwin also spent three years in San Francisco in 2017-19, so he can show his former team something in a must-win game.

The bar is low here. We like the game script of Seattle having to throw to keep up without the help of a good running game, and we already are going with Metcalf to go under 65 yards. Taking Goodwin to catch a long one or a couple of decent gains to hit his meager over shouldn’t be a big challenge.

NFL Prop Pick: Marquise Goodwin Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Marquise Goodwin Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.