NFL Week 13 Last Chance Value Picks: Three Lines That Are Very Tight

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With the NFL having gone to an 18-game season a year ago, we stand today two-thirds the way through the regular season.

With this, we know who the have’s are, the have-nots, and the rest in the middle that will fall one way or the other. Our job is not to concern ourselves with who is going where specifically but rather whether they are a good or bad wager for this upcoming week.

We think we have found the best value versus the NFL odds.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

What Is Going On?

We are not saying there is an oddsmaker error, but rather just trying to follow the logic of the numbers.

Pittsburgh was a two-point underdog at Indianapolis on Monday and won 24-17 over the Colts. Next they travel to Atlanta, which had a better record going into last week than Indy and remains better. Along with that, most reputable power ratings have the Falcons at least the same as the Colts if not ever so slightly better.

This all leads to our next question. If the Steelers were a two-point dog at Indy, how are they a pick at Atlanta?

Maybe the sportsbooks do believe Pittsburgh is truly better than the Falcons, however, they, like us, have seen Atlanta is better coached than the Colts have been all season, they play much harder and have better game plans. Puzzling right?

Not Complaining, Happy To Have the Value

This is not to say Atlanta is lacking in faults, they have plenty. The Falcons' passing offense has turned into the Bears' with Marcus Mariota and subpar pass-catchers outside of Drake London. Atlanta’s run defense was pretty solid in the first half of the season, but they’ve been gouged for 189 yards a game in their past three outings.

Still, Pittsburgh is not 4-7 because they are not a good football team and they are 2-10 ATS off their most recent point spread winner. Additionally, the Dirty Birds are 45-22 ATS after surrendering 150 or more yards on the ground.

Peach State bettors, make sure to take a look at the Georgia betting sites before placing a wager.

NFL Pick: Atlanta ML (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Atlanta ML (-105)
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Ford Field

Not on the Same Level

In another nonconference clash, we find an equally perplexing line for betting odds. Jacksonville, despite a 1-5 SU and ATS record, is a pick at Detroit. Granted, the Jaguars are coming off the best showing defeating Baltimore since manhandling the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3.

Jacksonville has won two of their last three outings after an 0-5 SU and ATS stretch. Nonetheless, does that make them equal to Detroit who has the same 4-7 record and who has won three of four, losing only to Buffalo at the buzzer on Thanksgiving and is motoring at 4-0 ATS?

Lions Are Hungry for Success

Let there be no doubt, Detroit has learned to win and they believe they are a good team. Coach Dan Campbell has put together good offensive game plans and QB Jared Goff is executing them extremely well.

The Detroit offensive line is the best group on the team, which helps not only the No. 10 rushing offense, it provides Goff time to find his receivers. That’s why the Lions are the No. 3 team in scoring at home at 30.5 PPG.

We won’t sing the praises of the Detroit defense, we’ll just point out there’s been improvement along with forcing more turnovers and quarterback pressures.

Jacksonville has better defensive numbers than its opponent. However, a few different aspects to ponder. Nobody accuses the Jaguars of playing hard every week. You also need to know the Jags are 4-15 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in two consecutive games and 0-8 ATS since last year vs. the NFC. Our NFL pick is that Detroit wins.

NFL Pick: Detroit ML (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Detroit ML (-109)
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium

Postseason Hopes

The Los Angeles Chargers are a game out of the Wild Card picture at the moment and the only way to solve that is by winning.

If you are a believer in point differentials, currently you think the Bolts don’t belong in the postseason because, despite their 6-5 record, they have allowed 30 more points than they have scored, placing them 12th in the AFC.

The Silver and Black are not going to the postseason, though mathematically they are still alive. The Raiders for years have found ways to lose that don’t follow normal wisdom.

Maybe something is changing in Las Vegas as they have trailed late in the fourth quarter and tied their past two ball games and won them in overtime. If this keeps up, they might have to hire Zach Cherry from the Uber Eats commercials, so he can say the Raiders are “pretty clutch”.

Da Raiders Are Believing

All of a sudden, much like at the end of last season, Las Vegas seems to get it. Derek Carr is on target. Davante Adams is playing like he has three arms in catching everything and Josh Jacobs has gone from having the best year of his career to Marshawn Lynch's “beast mode”.

The Raiders have backers as they have slid from +3 to -1-point home faves. The Chargers don’t figure to put their division rivals away because only one of their last seven contests has been decided by more than six points.

Think of the Raiders like Detroit, a team with a bad record that tastes success and it is suddenly a problem for playoff contenders. As for this matchup, Las Vegas is 10-1 ATS at home after having the ball for 34+ minutes and 24 or more first downs in their last outing.

Any Californians considering betting on this game, I recommend you check out this California betting sites guide.

NFL Pick: Las Vegas -1 (-109) at GTbets

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.