NFL Week 13 Early Value Picks: Featuring the Broncos, Texans & Rams

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Bryce Perkins #16 of the Los Angeles Rams hands the ball to Cam Akers #3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. David Eulitt/Getty Images/AFP.

Each week we scour the NFL odds on Monday morning to find weak numbers that can be exploited.

After comparing the Sunday night openers to where the numbers have already moved, we found games featuring the Broncos, Texans, and Rams that appear to give us the value we need at the numbers we like to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at M&T Bank Stadium

Teams Analysis

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have had a miserable season, but at the very least, their defense has proven to be one of the best in the business. However, the Russell Wilson-led offense has been stuck in neutral all season long and last week was no exception as the former All-Pro passed for just 142 yards and 1 touchdown in a 23-10 loss to the Panthers.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens appeared as though they had the game won, holding a 27-20 lead with 2 minutes remaining. But Baltimore head coach, John Harbaugh, reached into his bag of hackneyed and outdated tricks and pulled out the old “prevent defense” that does one thing and one thing only: prevent you from winning.

The Ravens were playing deep coverage allowing Trevor Lawrence to hit his targets at will. The Jags marched up the field without any real opposition culminating in Marvin Jones hauling in a 10-yard pass from Lawrence. Jacksonville won the game, 28-27, after converting a 2-point conversion.


Broncos vs. Ravens: Game Prediction and Pick

This line opened at Ravens -6.5, but that number has shot up to as high as -9 in some shops. And as much as it pains me to bet on the Broncos, I can’t help but take a piece of Denver at this price.

Remember, the Broncos own an elite defense and they should be able to keep this one within the margins.

Predicted Score: Ravens 20 - Broncos 13

NFL Pick: Broncos +9 (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Broncos +9 (-120)
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Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, December 4, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium

Teams Analysis

Cleveland Browns

The Browns battled back from a seven-point deficit to tie the game with under a minute remaining, only to watch Nick Chubb take a three-yard plunge into the end zone to give the Browns an unexpected 23-17 overtime victory against the Bucs. Cleveland is now 4-7 and resides in the basement of the AFC North.

Houston Texans

It’s not all that surprising that the Texans are the odds-on-favorite to claim the No. 1 draft pick next April, but lately, they have not only been losing but failing to cover, as they did last week when they were thoroughly outclassed by the Miami Dolphins.

When the dust settled, the Texans got squished by the Fish, 30-15, yet narrowly failed to cover the 14-point impost.


Browns vs. Texans: Game Prediction and Pick

Is anyone surprised that this line has already moved from Cleveland -5 to as high as -7? Well, the public has a short-term memory and the mental snapshot will be of the Browns shocking the Bucs while the Texans were trailing all afternoon long to Miami.

But this week the Texans will return from South Beach and into a much friendlier environment. They will also be playing a less talented team than the Tua-led offense they had to contend with last week.

Let’s grab the points and watch Houston cover the generous number. For residents of Houston looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top Texas betting sites.

Predicted Score: Browns 24 - Texans 20

NFL Pick: Texans +7 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Texans +7 (-115)
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Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, December 4, 2022 - 04:05 PM EST at SoFi Stadium

Teams Analysis

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has been exceeding expectations this season, but couldn’t get past the Raiders last week, dropping a 40-34 overtime decision. Geno Smith had 328 yards and 2 touchdowns while Kenneth Walker III had 2 rushing touchdowns despite his meager 26 yards.

As solid as the Seattle passing game was, the Raiders put together a perfectly balanced attack with Derek Carr torching the Seahawks’ secondary for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns while Josh Jacobs went off, steamrolling his way to 229 rushing yards and a pair of trips into the end zone.

Los Angeles Rams

It’s hard to believe the defending Super Bowl champs won’t even be sniffing the playoffs this season, but that’s where the Rams are after losing, 26-10, to the Chiefs. The game was closer than the score indicates but that is of little consolation to those who bet LA as 15-point road dogs.

Bryce Perkins took the reins of the offense for the injured Matthew Stafford and the results weren’t pretty in his first NFL start. The undrafted quarterback from Virginia tossed one touchdown and two picks for only 100 yards. It was a meager offensive output, yet, the Rams were never completely out of it until the end.

Seahawks vs. Rams: Game Prediction and Pick

The point of these early value lines is to go where the line moves take us, whether that be an underdog or a favorite. But this week it’s all dogs, as we see our third of three this week with the Rams. The Seahawks were initially tagged as 3.5-point favorites, but that has already drifted to -4.5 which means we are now getting the Rams through two key numbers (3 and 4).

The Rams shut down Stafford due to concussion-like symptoms but after taking last week off, it appears he is on track to return.

Let’s grab the generous line before L.A. makes it official that their starter will be back under center. For residents of Los Angeles looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top California betting sites.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 23 - Rams 20

NFL Pick: Rams +4.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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Rams +4.5 (-105)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.