NFL Week 12 Last Chance Value Picks: Out to Roll Up Some Winners

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Lamar Jackson #8 celebrates with Ben Powers #72 of the Baltimore Ravens after scoring a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP.

With three games off the docket from Thanksgiving Day, we can look forward to the others available for betting, while still enjoying leftover turkey and whatever else is in the refrigerator.

Half of the 16-game slate involved non-conference games making this trickier to gauge desire and preparation against unfamiliar foes. For our value picks against the NFL odds we have two such contests along with an AFC conference clash.

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Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

The New York Jets offense played like they were still on a bye week last Sunday, ringing up a grand total of 103 yards in their 14th straight defeat to New England.

The Jets players were not happy, head coach Robert Saleh said his offense played like dog crap (Actual word was comparable). And when, now backup quarterback, Zach Wilson was asked if he let New York's defense down, after the unsettling loss in which he played a big role, he said “No, No” which was not popular in the locker room.

Despite scoring 29.4 points a game in their last five outings, Chicago is 1-4 SU because they have conceded 31.2 PPG. Justin Fields has turned into a multi-purpose weapon. Though his 13 touchdown passes are way down the list in quarterbacks, he has seven rushing TDs which moves him up to 5th over for total QB production.

Gang Green Should Be Seeing Red

If the Jets are as good as they seem to think they are, they should be breathing fire on Sunday afternoon, ready to put the hurt on someone.

Since losing Breece Hall, the New York running game has not been the same, thus, it is time for the offensive line, backs Michael Carter and James Robinson to exploit the Bears' 29th-ranked run defense. This will help new starting QB Mike White immensely.

The Flyboys are 7th in total defense and if Fields is in any way compromised as a runner, the speed of New York’s defense can contain him and limit Chicago’s point production. With the Bears on a brutal 0-8-1 ATS run in Weeks 10-13, the Jets win and cover at New York betting sites

NFL Pick: New York -6 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)

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New York -6 (-108)
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Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at TIAA Bank Field

With Baltimore not facing a current winning team until they take on Cincinnati in Week 18, they have an excellent chance to be the No. 2 seed in the AFC. And if Kansas City would slip up, they could even leapfrog them for the top spot.

None of that will be possible if they give another effort as they did against Carolina last week. The Ravens’ defense did its job, but the same cannot be said about Lamar Jackson and the offense who totaled 13 points even with a +2 turnover edge.

Jacksonville is back in action off a bye week and it is time for Trevor Lawrence and the offense to hit another gear. Is Lawrence surrounded by talented players around him? No, but Lawrence is not the most accomplished down-the-field passer and ranks 24th in yards per pass in the league.

Lawrence and the Jaguars are averaging 17.7 PPG since starting 2-1 which goes a long way in understanding why they are 1-6 since.

Baltimore Has to Be Aggressive

The Ravens’ offense has to attack more and put Jacksonville on notice they are coming after them. Baltimore's run game is by committee with so many injuries and Jackson is their leading rusher.

If the Ravens establish the run, that opens the passing offense, and with TE Mark Andrews back, there will be holes against the Jags' No. 24 pass defense.

The Baltimore defense has steadily improved, though against mediocre offenses, which is how you would describe Jacksonville’s. The Jaguars are 8-19 ATS since last year and 11-26 ATS off a defeat, losing by 10 PPG.

NFL Pick: Baltimore -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Baltimore -4 (-108)
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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Nissan Stadium

For many, Tennessee having a 7-3 record is a mystery. The Titans are 9th in the AFC in points differential trailing even Jacksonville. Yet, here is Tennessee, a rough-and-tumble football team that emulates their head coach Mike Vrabel, that plays a physical style of football that was common three decades ago.

Cincinnati is a more modern NFL team, with plenty of visible weaknesses, but they do a few things really well which covers up some of those elements they don’t do proficiently. It starts with Joe Burrow and when he gets enough protection, he can throw the pigskin around and the Bengals can score points in a hurry and force the opposing team to play catch up.

Tennessee’s Toughness Is the Difference

Though the Cincinnati offense line has played better the last couple of weeks, they have not faced anything close to Tennessee’s defense. The Titans' run defense is No. 2 in the NFL and they are 10th in sacks.

That will place a great deal of pressure on Burrow to come up with ways to attack down the field without a running game, yet, still needing time to throw. Cincy has done it before, but this won’t be easy.

If you watched the Thursday game with the Titans at Lambeau Field, that was the Tennessee offense at its best. They stuck with the running game and found enough holes in the secondary to pass. Against the Bengals' defense, Ryan Tannehill and company can do the same.

As you are probably aware, Tennessee has covered eight in a row. They are also 6-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 and dating back to last year, the Titans are 11-3 ATS as an underdog, making them a live play for our NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Tennessee +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.