NFL Week 12 Early Value Picks: Featuring the Texans, Bears, and Raiders

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Davis Mills #10 of the Houston Texans looks on against the Washington Commanders. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

Each week we scour the NFL odds on Monday morning to find weak numbers that can be exploited.

After comparing the Sunday night openers to where the numbers have already moved, we found games featuring the Texans, Bears, and Raiders that appear to give us the value we need at the numbers we like to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 27, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Teams Analysis

Houston Texans

If you’re afraid of betting on the Texans, it’s hard to blame you after last week’s 23-10 loss to the Commanders.

The score doesn’t reflect how lopsided this game was, considering Washington held a 20-0 lead at the half.

Davis Mills tossed a pair of picks and was held to just 169 yards while the Texan’s run game was stuck in neutral, garnering just 21 yards.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins enjoyed their bye week and should be well-rested coming into this Week 12 matchup with Houston.

When last we saw the Fish, they were busy squishing the Browns to the tune of a 39-17 victory in which Tua Tagovailoa stayed hot in passing for 3 touchdowns and 285 yards.

Meanwhile, newly acquired Jeff Wilson Jr. led all rushers with 119 of Miami’s 195 yards.

Texans vs. Dolphins: Pick and Prediction

What I wrote above is precisely the mental snapshot the public will have of both of these teams entering this South Beach showdown. Therefore, it stands to reason that this line has moved from 9.5 to 12 overnight.

But what we should be focusing on is that the Texans have been competitive in most of their games throughout this season.

The Commanders were harassing Houston quarterback Davis Mills all afternoon and his protection was weak, to say the least. But Mills will have more time this week against a less potent Miami pass rush.

We are getting too many points to ignore betting on the Texans, so let’s watch them hang around against the Dolphins.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 24 - Texans 16

NFL Pick: Texans +12 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Texans +12 (-110)
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Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets

Sunday, November 27, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

Teams Analysis

Chicago Bears

The Bears held a 17-7 lead late in the second quarter, but they allowed the Falcons to crawl back into this contest and ultimately bowed, 27-24.

It was Chicago’s 4th consecutive loss, but Justin Fields continues to pile up the rushing yards and look much more competent than he has since entering the league as the No. 11 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

New York Jets

The Jets can’t beat the Patriots and they proved that yet again, dropping their 14th consecutive game to Bill Belichick and the boys from Foxboro.

It was a defensive battle decided by an 84-yard punt return with only 30 seconds remaining in the game when Marcus Jones broke the plane of the end zone with 5 seconds on the clock. Gang Green was out of time and dropped a 10-3 decision to their nemesis.

Bears vs. Jets: Pick and Prediction

This line opened with the Jets as 3.5-point home favorites and that is where it has remained at all of the major offshore shops except one. Over at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review), we see they are hanging the Jets -4.5 which allows us to get through a key number (4) if we’re taking advantage of their largesse and betting the road underdog in this one.

I understand the concern in betting on the Bears, as their defense is porous and their offense depends largely on Justin Fields' ability to make something out of nothing with his legs. However, the Bears do own the top rushing offense in the league and that will allow them to hang around, slow the pace, and watch the clock tick.

Let’s grab the generous head start from the oddsmakers over at Heritage Sports and cash a ticket with the Bears.

Predicted Score: Jets 17 - Bears 14

NFL Pick: Bears +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports

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Bears +4.5 (-108)
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Las Vegas Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, November 27, 2022 - 04:05 PM EST at Lumen Field

Teams Analysis

Las Vegas Raiders

Despite owner Mark Davis’s public vote of confidence for his beleaguered first-year head coach, Josh McDaniels may have very well saved his job, at least for the rest of this season, after his team snapped a 3-game losing streak and won just their 3rd game of the season with a 22-16 overtime win in Denver last Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks had the week off after dropping a 21-16 decision to the Bucs in Week 10 but still remain atop the NFC West standings as of this Monday morning writing.

Seattle has been one of the Cinderella stories of the season and Geno Smith has been a major factor in writing that fairy tale.

Smith has had a career renaissance, as he enters this Week 12 matchup against the Raiders boasting 17 touchdown passes to only 4 interceptions with 2,474 passing yards.

Raiders vs. Seahawks: Pick and Prediction

The Seahawks opened as 3-point home chalk but that number has swelled to 4 across the board. Perhaps it is a lack of confidence that Josh McDaniels’s underachieving crew can hang with the Seahawks after an exhausting overtime win in Mile High and a second straight week on the road.

However, there is a lot of talent on the offensive side of the Raiders’ ball and Seattle is a gritty team that doesn’t blow anyone out. The Raiders should be able to keep this one tight so grab the points and cash a ticket!

And remember that if you're a Washington resident looking to wager on the Seattle Seahawks, you can find the most reputable Washington betting sites at Bookmakers Review.

Predicted Score: Seahawks 23 - Raiders 21

NFL Pick: Raiders +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Raiders +4 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.