The NFL’s Thanksgiving tradition continues with a three-game slate this Thursday.
The Detroit Lions will host the Buffalo Bills, the Dallas Cowboys are hosting the New York Giants, and the New England Patriots are in Minnesota to take on the Vikings at night.
Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
Thursday, November 24, 2022 – 12:30 PM EST at Ford Field
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 287.5 Passing Yards
The Bills were oddly heavy on the run Sunday against Cleveland. It was the first time all season that Josh Allen did not pass for 200 yards in a game. Expect that to change this time with Allen facing one of the worst defenses in the league:
- Lions allow a league-high 28.2 points per game.
- Lions allow a league-worst 8.1 yards per pass and are one of the worst at hitting and sacking the quarterback.
- In 6 games this season where Allen was Over 7.5 yards per attempt, he finished Over 287.5 passing yards 5-of-6 times.
- Top Detroit corner Jeff Okudah (concussion) is out, and he has only allowed one touchdown this year and has the lowest passer rating in coverage of all the Detroit defensive backs (min. 20 targets faced).
Allen should have a great chance to throw for 300 yards in this game, and the biggest knock against it is the game script if Jared Goff plays poorly and the Bills don’t need to throw much in the second half.
But Detroit has usually been competitive into the fourth quarter this year, and it’s not like the Bills are blowing teams out as they did at the start of the season.
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
- Longest Reception - Over 23.5 Yards
The Lions allow the deepest pass attempts in the league at 9.3 yards per target according to Pro Football Reference. They also tackle well and do not allow a ton of YAC. This is a great game for deep balls and attacking down the field.
That is why Gabriel Davis has a great matchup and should go Over 63.5 yards with a long reception Over 23.5 yards. He has gone Over 63.5 yards in the last 2 weeks and leads the NFL with 21.1 yards per reception.
This should be an ideal matchup for him to haul in a long one or two, possibly even for a touchdown.
NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Long Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-118) at Bovada
Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Over 92.5 Receiving Yards
Diggs was visibly frustrated on the sideline against Cleveland, as he finished with a season-low 5 targets and 48 yards with a short touchdown. It was the first game this season where Diggs was under 60 yards.
Again, we expect the opposite result here from Sunday with potentially a 300-yard game for Allen, a big day for Davis, and Diggs very much has a chance to go for 100 yards and a touchdown with Okudah out at the corner.
It would be the 6th time he did both of those things in a game this season.
For residents of Buffalo looking to bet on this game, you can check out our top New York betting sites.
NFL Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-168) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 92.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at Bovada
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, November 24, 2022 - 04:30 PM EST at AT&T Stadium
Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Over 67.5 Rushing Yards
It is no coincidence the Cowboys look as explosive as ever in the Dak Prescott era since Tony Pollard started getting the majority of touches at running back in the last month. He exploded for 2 long receiving touchdowns against the Vikings where he was untouched.
Pollard has rushed for at least 80 yards in 5 of his last 6 games. He has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, including 2 games with multiple scores.
Pollard already had 105 yards on the ground against the Giants in Week 3. Last year, he rushed for 75 and 74 yards in 2 games against the Giants, who rank 25th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry this season.
Pollard should be the star of the game again. Even if Ezekiel Elliott is going to start sucking up the short-yardage touchdown runs in this offense, Pollard is a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
He should do it again against one of the worst defenses against running backs this year.
Darius Slayton (New York Giants)
- Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants keep losing wide receivers to injury this year. Rookie Wan’Dale Robinson joins Sterling Shepard on injured reserve with a torn ACL. The team already traded Kadarius Toney to the Chiefs, and Kenny Golladay has been a waste of a roster spot the last 2 seasons.
It goes back to Darius Slayton, who was drafted in the same class as Daniel Jones in 2019 and has had some chemistry with him over the 4 years together. Slayton has gone Over 50 yards in 4 straight games and is 5-of-6 for the Giants.
The Cowboys just did a great job of completely shutting down Minnesota’s passing game with 7 sacks, barely allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 100 yards, and they held Justin Jefferson under 35 yards for the 2nd year in a row.
That would be the concern with this pick. Dallas gets a strong rush going on Jones, the Cowboys run up the score early, and the Giants just never come close to putting up good passing numbers.
But last week in a game where the Giants trailed most of the way and couldn’t run, Jones passed for a season-high 341 yards. Slayton had 86 of those yards on 10 targets. With Robinson out after his 100-yard breakout game, it is hard to imagine anyone else taking these yards but Slayton.
NFL Prop Pick: Darius Slayton Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at Bovada
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings
Thursday, November 24, 2022 - 08:20 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings)
- Over 20.5 Pass Completions
- Over 0.5 Pass Interceptions
When I think of Kirk Cousins in prime time against a Bill Belichick-coached defense, I think of him getting baited into an interception and finishing with a lot of failed completions for very little yardage.
None of it is without merit either.
- The Patriots are tied for 4th in the league with 11 interceptions on defense.
- The Cowboys sacked Cousins 7 times on Sunday and held him to 3 points, and the defense right behind Dallas in sacks and pressure rate is New England.
- Matt Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks and the Vikings are without left tackle Christian Darrisaw due to a concussion.
- Belichick is 2-0 against Cousins and held him to 10 points in each game with his defenses making 3 total interceptions.
- When Cousins last faced the Patriots in 2018 with Minnesota, he completed 32 passes for 201 yards, the fewest yards in NFL history for any game with exactly 32 completions.
Cousins has been Over 20.5 completions in 8-of-10 games this year. He has been intercepted in 5-of-10 games. I like both things to happen for your NFL picks.
NFL Prop Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-143) at Bovada
NFL Prop Pick: Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-108) at Bovada
Dalvin Cook (Minnesota Vikings)
- Over 2.5 Receptions
We mentioned failed completions for Cousins against a Belichick defense. In that 2018 game, he completed 8 passes for 22 yards to Dalvin Cook that day. This is not a pick that is necessarily expecting that to repeat itself, but it’s the logic behind it that should stand up.
Cousins took 7 sacks on Sunday and knows he is going to need to get rid of the ball faster in this one. He knows the Patriots can rush the passer almost as well as Dallas, and he knows his left tackle is out. He also should know that Belichick famously tries to take away your top weapon, so this may not be a huge night again for Justin Jefferson.
What’s an easy thing to do? Call some screen passes for the running back or check down to Cook. In tough games against the Bills and Eagles this year, Cook had over 2.5 catches in each (7 total). He only had one target and no catches on Sunday against Dallas.
Let’s assume the Vikings learned something from Sunday and will try to get the running back some catches in this one to hit his Over and save some sacks. This sure feels like a better value pick than trying to read Belichick’s mind if he is going to go back to Damien Harris, as his lead back or stick with Rhamondre Stevenson, who struggled against the Jets.
We’ll trust Kirk to be Captain Checkdown instead.
NFL Prop Pick: Dalvin Cook Over 2.5 Receptions (-106) at Bovada
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