NFL Week 11 Last Chance Value Picks: Three Faves In The Year of the Underdog?

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Rhamondre Stevenson #38 of the New England Patriots runs with the ball during the second half of a game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images/AFP

With Thursday’s upset by Tennessee, the Titans have won seven of eight and covered eight in a row. What brief glimmer of hope Green Bay had to make the playoffs was probably extinguished.

What was not put out was our chances of having a profitable rest of Week 11 in the NFL and we release our value picks for Sunday.

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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

Both these division rivals are coming off a bye week, leveling the playing field from a rest perspective. As you probably know, New England has won 13 in a row over the New York Jets, beating the spread nine times.

No question that the Patriots until recently had the superior team and the Jets were awful. Gang Green is turning things around as we have witnessed this year, and New England is not a Super Bowl contender, yet, still a team very capable of making the playoffs.

Trends Can Be Your Friends

From our point of view, until the Flyboys prove they can beat Bill Belichick, it’s hard to back them, and New England has the supreme confidence they can get the job done against this opponent.

Lastly, when a team has a 60% to 75% win percentage, that is revenging a loss facing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) with the line is +3 to -3, clubs like the Jets are 4-16 ATS in this situation.

NFL Pick: Patriots -3 (-122) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Patriots -3 (-122)
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Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium

Detroit has won two straight, and the last time they made three in a row in the left-hand column was in the middle of 2017. The Lions took advantage of interceptions in each case that helped set up their victories, yet, they were still outgained by 85 yards by Chicago and 135 by Green Bay.

The kind of mistakes Detroit has made for years until their last two outings are also what the Giants were known for years. That has changed so far in 2022, as head coach Brian Daboll has altered the thinking of expectations. His intelligent approach captivated the Big Blue players and instead of doing their jobs when they felt like it play-to-play, it is an every-down culture which is why they are 7-2.

Detroit’s Not Good Enough To Keep Winning and Covering

The Giants opened at -4 and were lowered to -3, which adds value for your NFL picks if you prefer the home team. New York is third in the NFL in rushing the ball and the Lions are 31st in stopping it.

Granted, one could make the argument Detroit just beat the top rushing club in the league on the road in the Bears. That is true and if the G-Men gift-wrap the game the way Chicago did in the fourth quarter, they’ll get beat.

However, here is a neat system that relates to what we are talking about. When the line is +3 to -3 and a team like the Lions is allowing 130 or more rushing yards a game, after a contest where they surrendered 250 or more rushing yards, they are 3-12 ATS in their next outing.

NFL Pick: Giants -3 (-110) at BetOnline

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Giants -3 (-110)
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Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium

The first aspect of this game that stands out is Minnesota is tied with Philadelphia for the best record in the NFL at 8-1. Dallas, after their stunning loss at Green Bay in OT is 6-3 and has to play a second straight road game. Yet, despite this, the Cowboys are at -1 or -1.5 depending on the sportsbook, which suggests that on a neutral field, Dallas would be a four-point choice. So why are the Vikings an underdog?

Despite Minnesota’s record in point differential, they are at +35, which is T-8th in the NFL, behind Dallas at +47. One stat that is used increasingly more to determine a team's strength is yards per play. and the Boys are +0.3 while the Vikes are -0.5.

That's right, Minnesota is being outgained by 25 YPG in spite of their gaudy record. So how are Kirk Cousins and the Vikings winning?

The Cowboys are Favored For a Reason

Since losing to the Eagles in Week 2, Minny is +8 in turnovers and they are converting those into points. But Dallas is almost equal at +6 on the season. If Minnesota has to play on a level playing field without the opposing team making miscues, their ordinary run defense can be exposed as can their 27th-ranked pass defense. 

The Vikings have a long successful record as a home underdog at 38-21 ATS. Nevertheless, Dallas is 19-8 ATS since last season and 10-2 ATS vs. defenses allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt.

The clincher is the Boys are 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards a play in their previous game.

NFL Pick: Cowboys -1 (-115) at BetOnline

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Cowboys -1 (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.