NFL Week 11 Early Value Picks Featuring the Browns, Patriots, and Falcons

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Each week we scour the NFL odds on Monday morning to find weak numbers that can be exploited.

After comparing the Sunday night openers to where the numbers have already moved, we found games featuring the Browns, Patriots, and Falcons that appear to give us the value we need at the numbers we like to keep cashing our NFL picks!

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Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium

Teams Analysis

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were blown out by the Dolphins last week by the score of 39-17 and battling from behind from the second quarter onward.

Jacoby Brissett was held to 212 passing yards and 1 touchdown while Nick Chubb managed just 63 yards of the Browns’ season-low 113 rushing yards.

Buffalo Bills

Buffalo snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in one of the wildest finishes ever seen in an NFL game.

With time ticking away and under a minute to play, the Vikings recovered a bobbled snap to Josh Allen that resulted in Minnesota taking a stunning lead before the Bills marched down and tied it up.

The Vikings would end things with a Greg Joseph 33-yard field goal resulting in a 33-30 overtime victory.


Browns vs. Bills: Pick and Prediction

It’s hardly a surprise we are seeing the line drift upward on this matchup as the Bills, originally installed as 8.5-point favorites, are now being offered as high as -10 over at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).

Naturally, the public will be betting on the Bills knowing they must be pretty ticked after losing a game they had in the bag, while the Browns looked inept in their 22-point loss to the Fish.

But if Bookmaker wants to give us a 10-point head start with a team that owns one of the best rushing attacks in the league, then we’ll take it.

Predicted Score: Bills 27 - Browns 20

NFL Pick: Browns +10 (-119) at Bookmaker

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Browns +10 (-119)
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New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

Teams Analysis

New York Jets

The Jets had 2 weeks to revel in their 20-17 upset victory over the Bills and will be coming off of their bye week ready to avenge their 22-17 loss to the Patriots in Week 8.

Zach Wilson had 154 passing yards and a touchdown while the rushing game controlled the pace and tempo of the game, churning out 174 yards, with Michael Carter garnering 76 of those yards on 12 carries and a trip to the end zone in New York’s victory over Buffalo.

New England Patriots

Like the Jets, the Patriots had last week off and will get to work against the Jets after a 26-3 demolition of Indianapolis in their last game.

Mac Jones had a Zach Wilson-like performance in tossing just 147 yards with 1 touchdown, while the rushing attack produced only 70 yards.

However, it was the defense that came to the fore that paralyzed the Colts' offense throughout the afternoon.

Jets vs. Patriots: Pick and Prediction

New England was initially installed as a 4.5-point home favorite, but that number has dropped to as low as -3 at Bookmaker, as of this Monday morning writing. I don’t believe it will go below that unless a key piece of the Patriots offense or defense winds up on the injured list.

Bill Belichick is particularly good at planning confusing defensive schemes against young quarterbacks and preparing his team off of a bye week.

Combine the two elements working in his favor and the fact that he already has a win in the bank against Gang Green this season makes this a must-bet on the Pats.

Predicted Score: Patriots 24 - Jets 16

NFL Pick: Patriots -3 (-120) at Bookmaker

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Patriots -3 (-120)
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Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, November 20, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Teams Analysis

Chicago Bears

The Bears lost their 3rd straight game last Sunday, 31-30, to the Detroit Lions and will have to wait until the penultimate game of the regular season to exact their revenge.

Justin Fields continues to be Chicago’s primary offensive weapon through the air and on the ground, as the young quarterback passed for 167 yards and 2 TD strikes while rushing for 147 yards and scoring 2 rushing touchdowns for a combined 4 TDs on the day, in last Sunday’s loss to Detroit.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has now lost their last 2 and 3 of their last 4 contests with the most recent being a 25-15 setback to the Panthers on Thursday night.

Marcus Mariota had 186 passing yards with 2 touchdowns and one interception while leading all Falcons’ rushers with 43 yards on 3 carries.

Bears vs. Falcons: Pick and Prediction

The Falcons opened as 4-point home chalk but that number has sunk to as low as 2.5, breaking through the magic 3 and giving us a reason to believe in the Dirty Birds.

Atlanta is 6-4 ATS and should be able to cover this one with relative ease.

Predicted Score: Falcons 26 - Bears 21

NFL Pick: Falcons -3 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Falcons -3 (-125)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.