NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Patriots vs. Falcons Thursday Night Football Picks

profile image of Adam.Walford
Mac Jones #10 of the New England Patriots. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP.

Thursday night this week sees a rematch of Superbowl LI, where you won’t need me to tell you the Falcons threw away a massive lead to eventually lose in overtime. Since then, the two teams have met in October of that same year with the Patriots once again winning and covering the spread at the NFL odds.

This will be the first meeting of the two without Brady under center, but with the Patriots now winning 4 in a row. The best online sportsbooks have the Pats as comfortable favorites on the road with a reasonable total for the game.

New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons

Thursday, November 18, 2021 – 08:20 PM EST at Mercedes Benz Stadium

Will the Pats Form Continue?

After a slow start to the season with players returning on defense and a rookie QB under center, the Patriots have definitely found their feet with 4 wins in a row, the most impressive coming this weekend where they beat the Cleveland Browns in every aspect of the game in a comprehensive 45-7 victory in Foxborough.

Mac Jones has looked comfortable in the system from the off but was restricted in the play-calling early on, he’s now looking to expand and throw more deep shots and it’s working. This week he finished with 19 completions from 23 attempts and 3 TDs against a Browns defense with a fearsome pass rush and good secondary. It was easily his best game of the season and will fill him with confidence going forward.

As always seems to be the case with the Patriots they’re not loaded with stars but the coaching is second to none and they get production from the likes of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Hunter Henry. Bourne had his best stat-line of the year with 98 yards and a score while Hunter Henry made it 6 games out of their last 7 with a score as he notched up a double.

The star on offense though was Jakobi Meyers who scored for the first time in his career from his 135th reception. A league record and one that he’ll be happy to have finally stopped extending.

The defense was flying all game and will look to put another rounded performance together against a Falcons team who struggled against the Cowboys on Sunday.

Can the Falcons Bounce Back?

After a good month of football, reality hit the Falcons as they were blown out by the Cowboys thanks mainly to giving up 29 second quarter points as they imploded. Matt Ryan had been putting together some good numbers before this week, but completing just 9 passes to his own team for 117 yards and throwing 2 picks ruined any chance they had of competing at the weekend.

It started off all right but the loss of Cordarrelle Patterson with an ankle sprain seemingly blew their entire offensive plan out and they fell apart.

I wouldn’t expect Patterson to be available this week so it will be a mix of Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman trying to fill the creative talents of C Patt. That’s not a good thing, Mike Davis has been thoroughly underwhelming this season and Gallman isn’t a lot better.

The lack of offensive talent hurts them and without Patterson it will be down mainly to rookie tight end Kyle Pitts to move the ball. He led the team in yards again but can’t do it all himself. Olamide Zaccheus, Russel Gage and Tajae Sharpe aren’t really up to scratch but it’s all that’s left in Atlanta.

Is There Any Hope for the Falcons?

It’s been a weird few weeks in the NFL, but the Falcons are still in the wildcard chase in the NFC and will be hoping to get some luck after everything went against them on Sunday.

For the NFL picks, the Patriots have covered the spread in the last 6 contests between these two teams, and it should be 7 by Friday morning.

Jakobi Meyers #16 of the New England Patriots. Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP.

They have an innate ability to take away what the opposition do best so I would expect them to shut down Kyle Pitts and leave the Falcons to try and move the ball with the B-list talent they have on the rest of their roster.

I don’t think that’s going to be very pretty for them. At all.

NFL Pick: New England Patriots -5.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.