NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Giants vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football Picks

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Daniel Jones #8 of the New York Giants. Dustin Satloff/Getty Images/AFP

The New York Giants (3-6) return from their bye week to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3), who are on a surprising two-game losing streak. The Buccaneers lost 36-27 to the Saints and 29-19 to Washington on the road, but they have won their last six home games. This is only the fourth time in Brady’s career, and the second time since 2003, where he has lost consecutive games by multiple scores in the same season.

Despite the losing streak, the Buccaneers (3-6 ATS) are an 11-point favorite over the Giants (5-4 ATS) at many of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. Only three teams have a worse record against the spread this season than the Buccaneers. New York coach Joe Judge is 14-11 ATS, tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL since 2020. Can the Giants upset another Tom Brady-led team in front of a national audience? Keep reading to look at the NFL odds and start cashing out your NFL pick.

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, November 22, 2021 – 08:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium

What’s Wrong in Tampa Bay?

At 6-1, the schedule seemed to be aligning for the Buccaneers to finish with the best record in the league this year. But despite Jameis Winston tearing his ACL in New Orleans in Week 8, the Buccaneers lost to the Trevor Siemian-led Saints after Brady threw a pick-six to end the game. Surely the Buccaneers would rebound off a bye against Washington’s terrible defense, right? Wrong again.

The Buccaneers played maybe their worst game of the season in a 29-19 loss on Sunday. Taylor Heinicke put them away with a touchdown drive that nearly consumed the last 11 minutes.

It may sound simple, but turnovers did in the Buccaneers the last two games where they lost the turnover battle 5-to-1. Usually, Brady protects the ball better, and usually, his defense gets a ton of short fields for him. Tampa Bay has 12 touchdown drives that started in the opponent territory this season, which is four more than the next closest team.

The offense is harder when you don’t get a head start in field position. The fact is this offense is easier to defend when Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are inactive with injuries. While Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, an excellent duo, were already the focus of a prolific passing game for two seasons before Brady arrived in Tampa Bay.

Brown and Gronk are more “his guys” and the go-to receivers in tough situations. Brown has arguably established himself as the best receiver in Tampa Bay, but injuries have limited his appearances going back to last year.

It appears Brown and Gronkowski have a shot to return this week, but it is not certain they will be available on Monday night. The Giants are not a good defense, ranked 23r in yards and 21st in points per drive allowed, but they are No. 8 in takeaways per drive. They’ll need to win the turnover battle here to have any chance of pulling off an upset.

Why Not the Giants?

If Trevor Siemian and Taylor Heinicke can beat the Bucs, why not Daniel Jones? His first career start was a 32-31 win in Tampa Bay, and last year, he was a two-point conversion pass in the final seconds away from tying the Bucs in a 25-23 loss as a 13-point underdog on Monday Night Football.

Unfortunately, the injuries to New York’ skill players make the Buccaneers look like a model of health in comparison. Sterling Shepard, Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and John Ross have all missed multiple games this season. First-round rookie wide receiver Kadarius Toney leads the team with 352 receiving yards, but more than half of those came in a blowout loss to Dallas as the Giants have not figured out how to consistently work him into the offense.

Barkley sounds like he could be back for Monday, but Tampa Bay’s run defense is so stout that he’ll have to show his value as a receiver. Shepard and left tackle Andrew Thomas also could return, but like with Brown and Gronkowski, nothing is certain.

The Giants have been in most games this season but will need to avoid turnovers in this one. When Jones returned after a concussion against the Rams, he was sloppy with the ball and the Giants had a season-high four turnovers, leading to a 38-11 rout that was decided before halftime. That’s the fear with this matchup, but the Giants have only had two games with more than one turnover this season.

Tampa Bay’s secondary has seen a lot of injuries and it has been easier to pass on the Buccaneers this season compared to last year’s championship unit. Jones had plenty of open receivers in last year’s meeting, but he missed too many. Hopefully, the Giants spent their bye week wisely in preparing for this matchup. One break they may not be getting is that Tampa Bay defensive tackle Vita Vea’s knee injury does not appear serious, and he could play Monday.

Prediction

The Giants are 9-2 ATS as a road underdog under Judge. Brady has played the Giants eight times and only defeated them by more than 11 points once (2019). The underdog is 7-3 ATS on Monday night this season, including New York’s cover in Kansas City in Week 8.

I really do not like betting on Daniel Jones against any non-Washington team, but these Buccaneers do not look like a scary team right now. I am going to trust the Giants to keep it close enough in a loss to get the cover for your NFL picks to close Week 11.

NFL Pick: Giants +11 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Giants +11 (-110)
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