NFL Week 10 TNF Best Bets Player Props: Welcome Back, Cordarrelle Patterson

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Cordarrelle Patterson #84 of the Atlanta Falcons reacts after a touchdown against the Los Angles Chargers. Todd Kirkland/Getty Images/AFP.

The Carolina Panthers (2-7) host the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) this Thursday night after the two teams played a 37-34 overtime thriller in Week 8 that saw them both set their season high in passing yards. You should expect something lower scoring this time around as the Falcons now have Cordarrelle Patterson back in the fold at running back.

The Falcons are a 3-point road favorite in a game with a total of 42.5 points at many of the best sportsbooks. We have selected our favorite player prop picks for this matchup.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

Thursday, November 10, 2022 – 08:15 PM EST at Bank of America Stadium

Quarterback Props

P.J. Walker (Carolina Panthers)

  • Under 173.5 Passing Yards

Walker was just benched on Sunday, but the Panthers are reportedly still going to start him on a short week facing the team that he had his first 300-yard game in the NFL.

However, his line for passing yards keeps dropping as it looks like there could very well be rain during this night game. Both teams already like to run the ball as is, but that might lead to even less passing than usual.

There is also the fact that Walker needed a miracle-long touchdown to D.J. Moore to force overtime against the Falcons, and he threw a pick-six in that game. After Walker passed for 9 yards and a 0.0 passer rating against the Bengals on Sunday, him getting benched for the more accomplished Baker Mayfield, is a strong possibility in this prime-time matchup. Mayfield looked good in relief on Sunday.

Walker has started 6 games in the NFL and failed to pass for 170 yards in 3 of them. He had 60 yards against the Rams in his first start this season.

Following the NFL odds, bet against him (repeating his Week 8 numbers) and take the Under.

NFL Prop Pick: P.J. Walker Under 173.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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P.J. Walker Under 173.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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Marcus Mariota (Atlanta Falcons)

  • Longest Pass Completion Over 31.5 Yards

Trusting these offenses to throw the ball is tough. Marcus Mariota already has 5 starts this season where he did not break 150 passing yards. The Carolina game is the only one where he passed for more than 230 yards as he finished with 253 yards, and 26 of those yards came in overtime, so it was a legitimate 200-yard passing game in regulation.

But you still can’t trust Mariota to reasonably hit his Over (163.5) in this game. Instead, let’s focus on the big play: Mariota had completions of 33 yards to Kyle Pitts and a 47-yard touchdown to Damiere Byrd against the Panthers. He also had a 75-yard touchdown to Byrd in the blowout loss to the Bengals, and that made up more than half of his 124 yards that day, as Mariota completed 8 passes.

Mariota did not have a completion longer than 24 yards against the Chargers last week, but that just makes me feel extra confident for your NFL picks, that he will find one long completion in this game for at least 32 yards to hit that Over.

NFL Prop Pick: Marcus Mariota Longest Pass Completion Over 31.5 Yards (-110) at Bovada

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Marcus Mariota Longest Pass Completion Over 31.5 Yards (-110)
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Running Back Props

Cordarrelle Patterson (Atlanta Falcons)

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Over 57.5 Rushing Yards

Atlanta has had some solid rushing production from Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley this season, but we know the best runner is Cordarrelle Patterson. He returned to action on Sunday for the first time since his Week 4 injury, and he instantly scored 2 touchdowns. Patterson has scored a touchdown in 4 out of 5 games played this season.

Patterson also scored a touchdown in both meetings with the Panthers last season. He had 58 rushing yards in his last meeting in Carolina, so oddly enough that is his Over/Under line in this one.

When these teams met in Week 8, Caleb Huntley had a season-high 91 rushing yards. It would have been a season-high even if you exclude his 30-yard run, so it feels like the Falcons can run on this mediocre run defense.

What To Expect From Patterson?

Huntley still had 7 carries for 34 yards against the Chargers last week, so you have a little concern about the committee approach in Atlanta. But you don’t worry that there won’t be enough carries to go around because this offense just does not want to put the ball in the air.

In the end, Patterson should shine as the best runner and weapon in the backfield. Patterson only played 39% of the snaps on Sunday after settling in the 60% snap range in the first 3 games this season. Hopefully, they were just easing him back into action on Sunday with the knowledge of this division game coming up on Thursday night. Expect Patterson to find the end zone and hit his Over in rushing.

NFL Prop Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105) at Bovada

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Cordarrelle Patterson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+105)
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NFL Prop Pick: Cordarrelle Patterson Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Cordarrelle Patterson Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Receiver Props

Terrace Marshall Jr. (Carolina Panthers)

  • Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
  • Over 2.5 Receptions

This is a play where you hope lightning strikes twice. When Marshall played in Atlanta in Week 8, he had a career-high 9 targets and turned them into a career-high 87 yards. Instead of being a one-game wonder, he came back the next week in Cincinnati with 53 yards and a touchdown.

Marshall only started playing more than 85% of the offensive snaps starting in the Tampa game after the team traded away wide receiver Robbie Anderson and running back Christian McCaffrey. Someone has to step up and take these targets in Carolina.

A lot of attention will be on D.J. Moore this week after the 152 yards he had 2 weeks ago in Atlanta. Instead of expecting Moore to go Over 58.5 yards, let’s stick with the new No. 2 receiver Marshall going Over 35.5 yards on at least 3 catches. It could get even easier if this is a game where Walker is benched for Mayfield again because Mayfield is the one who threw him the touchdown on Sunday.

NFL Prop Pick: Terrace Marshall Jr. Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Terrace Marshall Jr. Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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NFL Prop Pick: Terrace Marshall Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions (-165) at Bovada

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Terrace Marshall Jr. Over 2.5 Receptions (-165)
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Ian Thomas (Carolina Panthers)

  • Over 4.5 Receiving Yards

You know we are not dealing with a normal game when multiple players have receiving lines in the single digits. This sounds like a wager on whether or not Ian Thomas, the Carolina tight end in case you didn’t know, gets a catch or not. But he’s actually had 2 games this year with a catch that did not gain 5 yards, including a 2-yard catch against the Falcons 2 weeks ago.

But this season, the Atlanta defense has allowed the most targets and third-most yards (588) to tight ends, so let’s go with Thomas to hit his Over this time. Maybe it’s a slick night that is terrible for throws outside the numbers to wide receivers, so safer throws to the tight ends or a tight end screen is the call to get him his 5 yards.

Thomas usually plays around 60% of the snaps and gets a target or 2 each game.

Let’s give ourselves something to follow for 4 quarters and wait for his 5-yard catch.

NFL Prop Pick: Ian Thomas Over 4.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.