NFL Week 10 Last Chance Value Picks: Two Sides and a First-Half Pick

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Duron Harmon #30 and Nickell Robey-Coleman #23 of the Las Vegas Raiders celebrate after breaking up a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Eric Espada/Getty Images/AFP.

A look at this week’s schedule, at least from this writer’s perspective, it doesn’t seem there are many underdogs to fall in love with. That does not mean they won’t cover or even win outright, at this time they just don’t stand out.

With that in mind, we are looking for favorites that offer the greatest value against the NFL odds.

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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field

Detroit got into the win column for a second time this season by hanging on to knock off division rival Green Bay. The Packers had ample chances to put the Lions away and botched almost every opportunity.

That gives Detroit life they can take down another NFC North foe when they travel to Chicago. The biggest concern for the Lions is the defense, which even after “holding” Green Bay to 9 points, they still are last in the NFL in points allowed at 29.3. That number position is well earned by also being last in total defense.

The Bears gave Miami everything they wanted and that was noteworthy because they traded away 2 defensive stalwarts in Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith before the trade deadline. When watching Chicago you cannot help but be impressed by their game plans under coach Matt Eberflus and the effort he’s getting from his squad.

Trusting Fields to Be the Difference Maker

When comparing these 2 Midwest rivals, not much to choose from by talent. That should suggest taking the points, yet, I see one functional mismatch Chicago can exploit. The Bears started using quarterback Justin Fields as more of a runner and that has grown the offense.

Detroit’s defense plays mostly man coverage and because of this, there are huge voids of 10 to 20 yards once the Lions rush the passer and where the linebackers drop to, with the secondary guarding their man and not looking at the quarterback.

That gives Fields all kinds of room to roam and that becomes the key difference in the outcome.

NFL Pick: Bears -3 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Bears -3 (-105)
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Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

The Miami Dolphins might not be impressing many with a one-point spread winner in their past 6 outings, but on the season they are 6-3 SU and have a dynamic offense.

Though it doesn’t work out for every team, the one thing to follow about teams that start winning, though not always impressively, is if you see improvement in their deficiencies, that’s a sign of a possibly higher ceiling. That could be the case for the Dolphins.

Cleveland returns to action off their bye week and has to be raring to go after playing their best game of the season, smashing Cincinnati 32-13, in that contest. The defense was in harmony, not like it has been most of the season where the pass rush was good and coverage was weak or vice versa.

The Browns’ offense had more than just the running game and maybe they are learning that even forcing the ball to Ameri Cooper is not a bad idea.

Can You Trust Cleveland?

For NFL picks, after Cleveland played a super game against their in-state rivals and returned from a bye, are they reliable?

The Browns are 3-5 and are averaging better than 2 turnovers in their past 5 outings. Though the Miami defense hasn’t been outstanding in forcing turnovers, back at home they could generate a couple of miscues.

Plus, the Fins are 8-1 ATS at home vs. defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or higher in the second half of the season since 2000, with the Brownies 12-25 ATS after a win by 14 or more points.

Let’s go swimming with the Dolphins.

NFL Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Dolphins -3.5 (-103)
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 04:05 PM EST at Allegiant Stadium

If there is a game this week that looks like a car fire on the interstate, this is it.

Indianapolis has struggled miserably and is trying to salvage its season with some hocus pocus. Famous author Will Rogers famously said, “I never met a man I didn't like.” Obviously, he was not a bettor, and rest assured if he had money on the Raiders this season, he would hate Josh McDaniels and Derek Carr.

The Colts turned the team over to former center Jeff Saturday, who is more famous for talking about football on ESPN than in his playing days. If you watched the press conference when owner Jim Irsay was saying Saturday was the right person for the job, even Saturday’s words and face voiced amazement at his new job.

Las Vegas has blown 3 games in which they had a late second-quarter or halftime lead of 17 or more points. To put that into context, from when the Raiders first started in 1960 thru 2021, that has occurred 5 other times.

Don’t Mess Around, Make the Smart Wager

The Colts have a head coach who has a few practices under his belt, a 30-year-old play-caller who will be doing this job for the first time, working with a backup quarterback making his 3rd career start. This wonderful idea is backed by an offensive line that cannot run or pass block.

There is no reason to suspect the Raiders won't be angry, frustrated, and whatever other descriptive adjective you would like to use. They are facing a disorganized opponent who is on the road and why shouldn’t they pounce on them quickly?

If Indianapolis couldn’t cover the first-half spread yet this season (0-9 ATS) with the setup they had, why would they beat the +3 points against a team that can build a quick lead when motivated?

NFL Pick: Raiders First-Half -3 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Raiders First-Half -3 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.