NFL Week 10 Early Value Picks Featuring the Dolphins, Lions and Packers

profile image of Swinging.Johnson

Each week we scour the NFL odds on Monday morning to find weak numbers that can be exploited.

After comparing the Sunday night openers to where the numbers have already moved, we found games featuring the Dolphins, Lions, and Packers that appear to give us the value we need at the numbers we like to keep cashing our NFL picks!

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration


Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Hard Rock Stadium

Teams Analysis

Cleveland Browns

The bye week came at the perfect time for the Browns who had two weeks to relish their 32-13 win over their division rivals from Cincinnati.

Jacoby Brissett was a surgical 17-of-22 for 278 yards and a touchdown while Nick Chubb garnered 101 of the team’s 172 rushing yards. We should also note the Browns' defense held the Bengals to just 36 rushing yards.

Miami Dolphins

Miami toughed out a gritty 35-32 win on the road against a pesky Bears team that refused to go away last week.

Tua Tagovailoa is making the most of the talented tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with 302 passing yards and three touchdown strikes while new arrival, Jeff Wilson Jr., led all rushers with 51 of Miami’s 77 yards on the ground.

Pick and Prediction

Miami opened as a 5 ½ point favorite, but that line has already tumbled to -4 as of this Monday morning writing.

Although the Fish won their last game, they failed to cover the 4 ½ point impost and that, coupled with the Browns' convincing win over the Bengals, could be the reason for the line drop.

However, the Browns are just a middling unit defending the pass and the Dolphins will attack through the air with their No. 2 ranked passing offense.

Cleveland will counter with their impressive ground attack, but that will be abandoned once they fall behind in this one, and when they do, it’s all over.

Predicted Score: Dolphins 27 - Browns 17

NFL Pick: Dolphins -4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Dolphins -4 (-108)
Visit Site

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field

Teams Analysis

Detroit Lions

Last week the Lions closed the deal on the same team they had defeated in their final game of 2021, the Green Bay Packers.

Detroit’s defense came to the fore by picking off Aaron Rodgers three times and came away with a 15-9 victory that snapped their five-game losing streak.

Jared Goff didn’t have to do much, but what he did do was toss two touchdown passes over his 14-of-26 for 137 yards passing performance.

Chicago Bears

Justin Fields had three touchdown passes and a 61-yard run into the end zone to provide the Bears the vast majority of their scoring punch against Miami in a 35-32 loss where they narrowly covered as 4 ½ point home dogs.

Although they contained the Dolphins’ rushing attack, limiting them to just 77 yards on the ground, they could not keep the Miami passing machine in check as Tua launched for 302 yards and three touchdowns.

Pick and Prediction

The top-rated sportsbooks opened with the Bears as 1 ½ point home chalk but that quickly evaporated to where it now stands at -3 due to an influx of action on Chicago. Granted, the Bears won’t have to contend with the twin terrors they faced last week in the forms of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the Lions' rushing attack should make headway against the Bears’ porous run defense, ranked 30th in the league.

However, the flip side is equally true as Chicago boasts the No. 1 rushing game versus Detroit’s 31st-ranked run-stop unit. It looks like this is a game that will be won on the ground and played between the 20s. Let’s look for the Lions to keep it within the margins and eke out a cover in what should be a game of ground-and-pound.

Predicted Score: Bears 24 - Lions 23

NFL Pick: Lions +3 (-120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

Bookmaker logo
Lions +3 (-120)
Visit Site

Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, November 13, 2022 - 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field

Teams Analysis

Dallas Cowboys

The suddenly competitive NFC East shows the Cowboys at 6-2 straight up and against the spread, but still looking up to the undefeated division-leading Eagles.

Dallas is coming off of their bye week after an impressive 49-29 thrashing of the Bears in which Dak Prescott struck for a pair of touchdown passes and one rushing TD while Tony Pollard ran wild with 131 yards and three touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers

It’s easy to see why everyone is down on the Packers. They enter this matchup with the Cowboys at 3-6 straight up and against the number after a 15-9 loss to the Bears last week.

Aaron Rodgers has hardly resembled his typical All-Pro self, but it’s not too surprising considering Packers' management traded his top target and best on-field buddy, Davante Adams, to the Raiders in the offseason while the protection surrounding Rodgers has been a train wreck.

Pick and Prediction

The potential absence of running back Aaron Jones and wideout Romeo Doubs is a big reason why this line has morphed from Dallas -3 to as high as -6 at some of the best online shops. My counter to that is Green Bay has the luxury of another starting talent in the backfield by the name of AJ Dillon. As for the rookie Romeo Doubs, he has shown flashes of brilliance but is hardly a game-breaker at this point in his career.

The best time to bet on an underdog is when the public fades them en masse resulting in an inflated line. Let’s watch the Packers' redemption tour start this Sunday, and even if they don’t get the win, they should be competitive enough to make it a game.

Predicted Score: Cowboys 29 - Packers 26

NFL Pick: Packers +6 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Packers +6 (-120)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.